[4] [Lord Francis Egerton, afterwards First Earl of Ellesmere, proprietor of the Bridgewater Estates and Canal, which was threatened by the competition of the newly-made Liverpool and Manchester Railway. Lord Francis held the office of Secretary at War in 1830 for a very short time, having previously been Irish Secretary when Lord Anglesey was Lord Lieutenant.]

In the meantime the affairs of Belgium are in a very critical state; the Prince of Orange has entirely failed in reducing the malcontents to submission, and after passing two or three days at or near Brussels in fruitless negotiation and the interchange of proud civilities, he was obliged to retire and carry back to the King a proposal that Belgium and Holland should be separated and a Federal Union established between them. Last night, however, a proclamation of the King appeared, well drawn up, and couched in firm, temperate, and sensible language, in which he declares that he will do all that the circumstances of the case may render necessary, but that all shall be referred to the States-General, and they shall decide upon the measures to be adopted. This will probably excite great discontent, and it is at least doubtful whether the Belgian Deputies will consent to go to the Hague at all. My belief is that this proclamation is the result of encouragement from Prussia.

The night before last I had a letter from the Duc de Dalberg with a very sensible view of the state of France and of affairs generally in Europe, auguring well of the stability of the present Government, provided the other Powers of Europe do nothing to disturb the general tranquillity. I never was so astonished as when I read in the newspaper of the appointment of Talleyrand to be Ambassador here. He must be nearer eighty than seventy, and though his faculties are said to be as bright as ever (which I doubt), his infirmities are so great that it is inconceivable he should think of leaving his own home, and above all for another country, where public representation is unavoidable. Dalberg told BAD PROSPECTS OF THE SESSION. me that several of the Ministers are going out—Guizot, Marshal Gérard, and Baron Louis, the two latter accablés with the travail, and the first unused to and unfit for official business;[5] Louis is seventy-three.

[5] [A curious estimate, taken at the time, of the man who for the next eighteen years had a larger share of official life and business than any other Frenchman.]

In the meantime the Duke does nothing here towards strengthening his Government, and he will probably meet Parliament as he is. There are some circumstances in his favour, and I think it possible he may still extricate himself from his difficulties. There is unquestionably a notion amongst many persons (of the aristocracy) that he is the only man to rely upon for governing this country in the midst of difficulties. It is hard to say upon what this feeling (for it is more of a feeling than an opinion) is founded; not certainly upon any experience of his abilities for Government either as to principles or the details of particular branches of business, or his profound, dispassionate, and statesmanlike sagacity, but upon certain vague predilections, and the confidence which he has infused into others by his own firm, manly, and even dictatorial character, and the recollection of his military exploits and splendid career, which have not yet lost their power over the minds of men, and to this must be added his great influence over the late and present sovereigns.

The short session which will begin on the 28th of October will be occupied with the Regency and Civil List, and it is probable that both those matters will be produced in a form to give general satisfaction; that will be strength as far as it goes. The Tories are alarmed at the general aspect of affairs, and I doubt whether they will not forget their ancient grievances and antipathies, and, if they do not support the Government, abstain at least from any violent opposition, the result of which could only be to let in the Whigs, of whose principles they have the greatest apprehensions. I can perfectly understand that there may be many men who, wishing sincerely to see a stronger Government formed, may think that any change at this moment which may present to Europe a spectacle of disunion and weakness here would be a greater evil than the temporary toleration of such Ministers as ours; and if the Duke does find such a disposition, and profits by it dexterously and temperately, he may float through the next session, and at the end of it negotiate with other parties on more advantageous terms than he possibly could do now, when all his concessions would appear to be extorted by force or by the urgent difficulties of his position.

September 10th, 1830

The Duke is very much disturbed about the state of affairs, thinks ill of France and generally of the state of Europe. I think the alarmists are increasing everywhere, and the signs of the times are certainly portentous; still I doubt there being any great desire of change among the mass of the people of England, and prudent and dexterous heads (if there be any such) may still steer on through the storm. If Canning were alive I believe he would have been fully equal to the emergency if he was not thwarted by the passions, prejudices, and follies of others; but if he had lived we should not have had the Catholic question settled, and what a state we should be in now if that were added to the rest!

September 14th, 1830

Last Saturday to Panshanger; returned yesterday with Melbourne, George Lamb, and the Ashleys. George said there would be a violent Opposition in the approaching session. William[6] told me he thought Huskisson was the greatest practical statesman he had known, the one who united theory with practice the most, but owned he was not popular and not thought honest; that his remaining in with the Duke when Goderich’s Ministry was dissolved was a fatal error, which he could never repair.