June 20th.—It seems that the Ministers' minds misgave them, and yesterday they began to doubt whether they ought not to do something. Roebuck gave notice of a question, and John Russell told him he would give him an answer this evening. John Abel Smith went and proposed that they should make a sign of intention to resign, and that a vote of general confidence should be moved in the House of Commons, on which they should stay in. Many of the friends of Government (some in office) are for resignation. It is no doubt embarrassing, but I am against their resignation. If Palmerston was disposed to take a high and creditable line, he might extricate them from the difficulty by voluntarily sacrificing himself. This is what he ought to do, but I don't hear that he has evinced any disposition of the sort. He did indeed offer to resign at the Cabinet, but this of course (as he well knew) they could not listen to.
June 21st.—John Russell made his statement last night, giving the reasons why he did not resign, quoting two precedents, one above a century ago, and one in 1833, for not resigning in consequence of an adverse vote of the House of Lords. I concur in the constitutional doctrine he laid down on that score, but the rest of what he said was very imprudent and ill-judged. He has now committed himself more than ever to Palmerston, and has thrown down a defiance to all Europe, announcing that they will make no difference whatever in their administration of foreign affairs. He alluded to that part of Stanley's resolution which laid down the right and duty of this country, asserted that the words of it limited those rights and duties within bounds he could not admit, and by implication at least asserted propositions against which foreign nations will infallibly kick. It was very imprudent to raise incidentally this very difficult and important question, and he might easily have avoided such dangerous ground. Then he finished by a very miserable and injudicious claptrap, which will be as offensive as possible to foreign Powers; in short, he evinced little judgement and taste. It is clear enough that he is now resolved to adhere to Palmerston, and that his intention is, if he can get a majority next Monday, to disregard the House of Lords and their opinions, and to set all Europe at defiance by giving them notice that they must have Palmerston to deal with and nobody else. The conclusion to which he came a few weeks ago is evidently thrown aside. All his indignation against Palmerston, his determination to endure it no longer, his bold resolution to take the labour of the Foreign Office on himself, have all evaporated, and are as a dream, and the fact of a large majority of the House of Lords having condemned Palmerston's proceedings, language, and conduct, instead of affording an additional reason, and confirming him in the course he had thought of pursuing, seems to have made him angry and obstinate, to have caused a reaction in his mind, and engendered a determination to cling more closely than ever to Palmerston, and fight his battle at all risks and at any cost, in everything and against everybody. The other day there was a general opinion that if a vote of approbation was moved in the House of Commons it would not be carried. This was Graham's opinion, and so entirely did John Russell himself concur in it, that he declared it should not be attempted, if the vote of the Lords was adverse. All that is suddenly changed. He now tries this experiment, and all the people I have seen say Government will carry it. Bernal Osborne told me it was certain, for the Whigs and the Radicals united could not be beaten, and all the Radicals but four or five would support the Government. Never was there such a state of difficulty and confusion in my recollection. It is at last come to what I long ago predicted, and Palmerston is proving the ruin of the Government.
MR. ROEBUCK'S VOTE OF CONFIDENCE.
June 24th.—Nothing of course thought of but the division on Roebuck's motion.[122] The general opinion is that there will be a majority of about forty, but nobody knows what Peel will say or do, and many votes are quite uncertain. That there will be some such majority none doubt, and it is put about by the Government that they will resign if their majority is less than that in the House of Lords against them, which I don't believe, and it would be very absurd to make it turn on a mere question of numbers. Lady Palmerston and her belongings continue to make an active canvass. On Saturday afternoon the news came of the difference being settled, by our conceding to the French all they demanded. Nobody seems to care, or it would be a mortifying and a ridiculous conclusion, for we have not only agreed to what we at first refused to the French Government, but we have in fact gone back (with some modifications as to detail) to Gros's propositions to Wyse, which the latter so obstinately refused, and on his rejection of which the blockade at Athens recommenced, and the quarrel with France was based.
June 25th.—Little progress was made in the debate last night; Graham made a strong speech. In the morning I rode with Brunnow and had much talk with him. He spoke out about Palmerston, though with great regret; said he had done all he could in the way of warning and advice, to prevent his running this headlong course; but he never could make the least impression on him. He thinks there will be a calm of a few months' duration, but that it will be impossible for Palmerston to go on long at the Foreign Office. He complained of the great interests of the world having been sacrificed to this miserable affair, especially the Denmark question; that it might have been settled long ago; and if we had pacified France by accepting the London Convention, the three Powers would have immediately set to work to bring this knotty point to an end. He goes to Petersburg in August. The Emperor, he told me, cannot comprehend our political condition, and is at a loss to know why the Queen does not dismiss Palmerston; and when he hears of the division in the House of Lords, he will fancy that the Government will resign in consequence of it.
June 29th.—I have been for two days in the country, while the great debate was going on. Palmerston came out the second night with prodigious force and success. He delivered an oration four hours and three-quarters long, which has excited unusual admiration, boundless enthusiasm amongst his friends, and drawn forth the most flattering compliments from every quarter. It is impossible to deny its great ability; parts of it are strikingly eloquent and inimitably adroit. It was a wonderful effort to speak for nearly five hours without ever flagging, and his voice nearly as strong at last as at first. The ability of it is the more remarkable, because on an attentive and calm perusal of it, the insufficiency of it as an answer and a defence against the various charges which have been brought against him is manifest; but it is admirably arranged and got up, entirely free from the flippancy and impertinence in which he usually indulges, full of moderation and good taste, and adorned with a profusion of magnificent and successful clap-traps. The success of the speech has been complete, and his position is now unassailable. John Russell may save himself the trouble of considering, when this is all over, how he may effect some change involving the withdrawal of the Foreign Office from Palmerston's hands, for they are now all tied and bound to him in respect to the future as completely as to the present and the past. These discussions and attacks, which were to have shaken him in his seat, have only made him more powerful than he was before; but whether they have strengthened or weakened the Government is another question. It now remains to be seen what the attitude and animus of Foreign Powers will be, and what the character of his future proceedings. The debate was on the whole very able. Cockburn made a slashing speech, which will probably procure for him the post of Solicitor-General. Graham's and Gladstone's speeches were the best on the other side. Peel was very moderate, and refused to go into the details or to attack the Government on them. The majority of forty-six was rather more than was expected by either party.
CHAPTER XXXI.
Accident to Sir Robert Peel—Triumphant Success of Lord Palmerston—Death of Sir Robert Peel—Sir James Graham's Position—Lord Palmerston's Policy—Lord Palmerston's Ovation—Death of Mr. Arbuthnot—Death of King Louis Philippe—The Papal Hierarchy in England—German Affairs—Papal Aggression—General Radowitz invited to Windsor—Papal Aggression—Conversation with Lord John Russell—And with Lord Palmerston—Mr. Green's Lecture—Visit to Brocket—Bear Ellice—Lord Melbourne's Papers.
London, July 1st, 1850.—The day before yesterday Sir Robert Peel had a fall from his horse and hurt himself seriously. Last night he was in imminent danger. His accident has excited the greatest interest, and his doors are beset with enquirers of all parties without distinction. He was in high spirits that day, for he was pleased with the division which saved the Government, and with his own speech, which for his purpose was very dexterous and successful.