April 2nd.—Graham called on me on Sunday; said he had had a most agreeable conversation with John Russell, who was very friendly, and even confidential; in short, Graham appeared in much better humour than before, and he said he had engaged, and was resolved, to do all he could to help them in the Budget. I asked him if he could not do something with the Irish members, whose cause he had espoused with so much gallantry and devotion, and he said he thought he could, as he had a channel of communication through Sir J. Young, and he would try. He then talked of the Chancery measure, which would not do, and advised that Lord John should consult Turner[137] about it, who thought it was in the right line, though not the right thing, and that with some alterations it might be made into a good measure. Graham thought Stanley quite ready to take the Government, and that Ceylon was the case on which he meant to give them the mortal stab. But it remains to be seen whether Torrington's successful defence of himself last night will not defeat this scheme if it really existed. I told John Russell what had passed between Graham and me about Turner. This move of his about the Chancery Reform has been another blunder. The measure is scouted, and the Government do not themselves think it will do. I told Charles Wood and John Russell that it would not. The former replied, 'I don't think it will, but the House of Commons must be taught that if good services are to be performed they must be paid for;' and this was again Lord John's notion, and he acknowledged to me that 'he supposed it would not do.' He was going to see Pemberton Leigh, and he told me afterwards he had seen him, and that he disapproved. Why not have seen and consulted him before producing his scheme instead of after? And why assume that the House of Commons would be niggardly, instead of framing the best measure they could, and casting on the House of Commons the responsibility of refusing the necessary funds to carry out a proper and desirable arrangement? All this is miserable, bad management. The other night Lyndhurst came out for the second time, and made an attack on the Chancery scheme; very well done, marvellous considering his age and his recent illness. The Chancellor replied well enough, and Grey very unwisely spoke after him. He is leading the Lords now that Lord Lansdowne is away, but by no means with the same tact and discretion.
Torrington made his speech last night, and did it very well, making a very favourable impression, and a good case for himself. Nobody said anything, and all would have ended there, and ended well, if Grey had not unwisely got up and made a bitter speech against the Committee, and on the case generally, in the course of which he said something about martial law, and the Duke of Wellington's administration of it in Spain; on which the old Duke rose in a fury, and delivered a speech in a towering passion, which it would have been far better for Torrington to have avoided. The Duke was quite wrong, and Grey made a proper explanation, but the incident was disagreeable.
April 10th.—At Newmarket on Sunday, and returned yesterday. It was worth while to be there to see Stanley. A few weeks ago he was on the point of being Prime Minister, which only depended on himself. Then he stood up in the House of Lords, and delivered an oration full of gravity and dignity, such as became the man who had just undertaken to form an Administration. A few days ago he was feasted in Merchant Taylors' Hall, amidst a vast assembly of lords and commoners, who all acknowledged him as their chief. He was complimented amidst thunders of applause upon his great and statesmanlike qualities, and he again delivered an oration, serious as befitted the lofty capacity in which he there appeared. If any of his vociferous disciples and admirers, if some grave members of either House of Parliament, or any distinguished foreigner who knew nothing of Lord Stanley but what he saw, heard, or read of him, could have suddenly found themselves in the betting room at Newmarket on Tuesday evening and seen Stanley there, I think they would have been in a pretty state of astonishment. There he was in the midst of a crowd of blacklegs, betting men, and loose characters of every description, in uproarious spirits, chaffing, rowing, and shouting with laughter and joking. His amusement was to lay Lord Glasgow a wager that he did not sneeze in a given time, for which purpose he took pinch after pinch of snuff, while Stanley jeered him and quizzed him with such noise that he drew the whole mob around him to partake of the coarse merriment he excited. It really was a sight and a wonder to see any man playing such different parts, and I don't suppose there is any other man who would act so naturally, and obey all his impulses in such a way, utterly regardless of appearances, and not caring what anybody might think of the minister and the statesman so long as he could have his fun.
April 14th.—Graham called on me yesterday. He generally comes every Sunday now; talked gloomily about everything, and seemed to think it very doubtful if the Government would get through the Session. On Disraeli's motion the other night,[138] on which there was only a majority of thirteen, he said Gladstone had a great mind to vote against them, and if he had, others of the Peelites would have gone with him, and the Government would have been in a minority; that Disraeli had managed his matters very ill, and had made a very bad speech. If he had proposed to apply the surplus to a partial reduction of the Malt Tax, he would have put the Government in a great dilemma, and they probably would have been defeated. I told him I did not think he could have done this, or could have got a majority on it, for nobody ever dreams of abolishing the Malt Tax. He told me that Gladstone was disgusted with the Government, and determined to turn them out if he could, and from what he said of the disposition of the Peelites, I infer that they are disposed to take Gladstone as their leader, and that they are animated with the same spirit of hostility to the Government. Their views are these: they think that when they have got the Government out, and there shall have been a general election, Stanley will find there is so small a majority for Protection, or none at all, that he will give it up, and then Protection being abandoned, that they may join him, and the old Conservative party may be thus rallied and reunited. Such is the view of Gladstone, and the Duke of Newcastle and Sidney Herbert go along with him. Then as to the Papal Bill, he returned to what he had before mentioned to me, the notion of throwing all things into confusion in Committee; that the Stanleyites will oppose the withdrawal of the clauses, the opponents of the second reading take no part, the Government be beaten, and then the Government and the Anti-Billites together throw it out on the third reading. This accomplished, he fancies there will be no more question of any Bill whatever, that Stanley will give the go-by to legislation by appointing a Committee, and so this great difficulty will be got rid of. I would not listen to this fine scheme, which involved a whole series of discreditable inconsistencies. He and those who were opposed to penal legislation refusing to assist in expunging those clauses of the Bill which had such a character, for the chance of indirectly getting rid of the whole, and Stanley's coming into power and throwing over both Protection and Papal aggression, after having fought his way to it upon nothing but the assertion of these two principles. I urged him as strongly as I could to be no party to any such schemes, but to co-operate in getting this odious and mischievous question settled and disposed of in the best and only way that circumstances now admit of. He is evidently much perplexed, conscious he is in a false position, and does not see his way clearly as to the best course for him to adopt. He said he was satisfied Stanley was determined not to come into office if he could possibly avoid it, and could find pretexts for refusing it; but his followers are so eager and impatient, and he has led them on so far, that it is become difficult for him to avoid it if fresh opportunities present themselves.
THE GREAT EXHIBITION.
May 10th.—On the day of the opening of the Great Exhibition I went into the Park instead of the inside, being satisfied with fine sights in the way of processions and royal magnificence, and thinking it more interesting and curious to see the masses and their behaviour. It was a wonderful spectacle to see the countless multitudes, streaming along in every direction, and congregated upon each bank of the Serpentine down to the water's edge; no soldiers, hardly any policemen to be seen, and yet all so orderly and good-humoured. The success of everything was complete, the joy and exultation of the Court unbounded. The Queen wrote a touching letter to John Russell, full of delight at the success of her husband's undertaking, and at the warm reception which her subjects gave her. Since that day all the world has been flocking to the Crystal Palace, and we hear nothing but expressions of wonder and admiration. The frondeurs are all come round, and those who abused it most vehemently now praise it as much.
Government has been again defeated in the House of Commons, and the state of affairs is worse than ever.[139] The apathy, indifference, and careless disposition of almost everybody is as strange as it is disgusting. One cannot make out what people want. The mass of the Protectionists know what they want—to turn out the Government, get in themselves, procure (as they expect) a majority on a dissolution, and then restore Protection. Stanley is hanging back as much as he can, evidently, and no wonder, shrinking from committing himself to the desperate experiment of such an attempt; but his eager followers push him on, and he has gone too far with them now to hang back. Yet on the whole I think the Government will still scramble through the Session, but a scramble it is. John Russell made one of his very best speeches the other night, in reply to Roebuck who urged him to resign. But non est qualis erat, he has committed great blunders and has been very neglectful. Tufnell told me last night, he had observed for the last two years that his personal influence was waning. There seems no doubt that Protection has gained many advocates of late, and that in the event of a dissolution most of the counties and the agricultural boroughs will return Protectionists. It is therefore probable that there may be a majority in favour of some import duties, still it is not likely that the change can be so great as to give more than a bare majority to a Protectionist Government, and such men with such a majority can hardly hope to succeed in reversing the whole of our commercial policy and restoring the old system. But the contest will be very alarming, and nobody can tell what will come out of the new Reform Bill, and above all out of the restless spirit of change and progress which has been put in motion. I cannot help fearing that we are approaching times of difficulty and danger, the more difficult and dangerous from the lack of statesmen who have either capacity to deal with political exigencies, or who possess the confidence and regard of the country sufficiently to be enabled to take the conduct of affairs into their own hands, who will be followed, listened to, and obeyed.
M. THIERS IN LONDON.
May 31st.—I have been too much occupied, even absorbed, by my Derby concerns to trouble myself about anything else, but I have at least been occupied to some purpose, for I won the largest sum I ever did win in any race, the greatest part of which I have received, and no doubt shall receive the whole. Meanwhile the world seems to have thought of nothing but the Exhibition, and all politics have appeared flat, stale, and unprofitable. This has turned to the advantage of the Government, who after weathering other storms were finally set on their legs by the excellent division they got on Baillie's motion about Ceylon. Everybody now admits that they are quite safe for this Session, after which we shall see; but though they are considered, and really are, a weak Government, their weakness is strength compared with that of the other party, which is hopelessly distracted and disorganised. They have no unity of purpose, object, or opinion, no reliance on their leaders; there is no mutual confidence and esteem amongst them; and their great man, Stanley, has been all along making game of them, humbugging them and laughing in his sleeve. He has never really intended to turn out the Government, nor to take office himself, and his whole object has been to pretend to aim at both these things, taking all the time especial care to avoid being successful. I am now told that they are beginning to open their eyes to what has long been obvious to all cool observers. All this could hardly be otherwise; Stanley could not fail to be disgusted with a party which suffers itself to be in great measure represented by such men as G. F. Young and Ferrand.
June 8th.—I broke off what I was writing to go to Ascot. There is a picture in 'Punch' of the shipwrecked Government saved by the 'Exhibition' steamer, which really is historically true, thanks in great measure to the attractions of the Exhibition, which have acted upon the public as well as upon Parliament. The attacks upon the Government have for some time past become so languid, and there has been so much indifference and insouciance about politics and parties, that John Russell and his Cabinet have been relieved from all present danger. The cause of Protection gets weaker every day; all sensible and practical men give it up as hopeless; nevertheless that party will make a desperate struggle when the elections take place, and though they will infallibly fail in bringing back Protection, they will probably have success enough to make government if possible more difficult than it is now.