The object of the Ministerialists is to catch votes by representing themselves as Conservatives, and creating as much doubt and uncertainty as they can about their intentions on the most exciting topics, such as Free Trade and Popery. It is supposed that there is under a smooth exterior considerable discord in the Protectionist ranks, and even in the Cabinet. Disraeli's Free Trade speech on the Budget evidently gave deep offence to his party, for he felt himself obliged to make a sort of recantation a night or two afterwards; and Derby took the very unusual course of making a political speech at the Mansion House dinner, and in it, with much show of compliment to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, did his best to neutralise the Budget speech of the latter by a long and laboured exposition of the doctrine of compromise, which he said entered practically into all the policy and even institutions of the country—all which seemed to imply that he meant to strike a balance, in some protective shape, between the manufacturing and agricultural interests. This speech, which was not particularly good, has been universally considered as a snub to Disraeli.
Last night Spooner brought on his motion for an enquiry into Maynooth, when Walpole made a strong anti-Maynooth speech, going much farther in that direction than Derby had ever hinted at in the House of Lords; but such is their language at different times and in different places, that it is utterly impossible to guess what they think, mean, or intend; a studied ambiguity conceals their principles and their policy, if they have either. It would, however, look as if they meant to pander to the 'No-Popery' rage which is now so rife, and to make the country believe they intend to give effect to the passionate desire, which no doubt largely prevails, to attack the Catholics in some way.[152] This desire is very strong and general in this country, but in Scotland it is universal. Aberdeen told me the whole country was on fire, and they would like nothing so much as to go to Ireland and fight, and renew the Cromwellian times, giving the Papists the option of going to 'Hell or Connaught.' As Ireland is equally furious, and the priests will send sixty or seventy members full of bigotry and zeal, all ready to act together under the orders of Cullen and Wiseman, we may look for more polemical discussion, and that of the most furious character, than we have ever seen before, even during the great Emancipation debates.
A GENERAL ELECTION.
Bath, July 7th.—The elections are now begun,[153] and a few days will disclose whether Derby's Government will be able to stand its ground or not. Both parties are excessively confident, for at this moment the world may be divided between the supporters and opponents of the present Government, though the latter will be split into a dozen different factions when Parliament meets. The first act of the Derby drama has been curious enough; they have in some respects done better and in some worse than was expected of them. Derby himself has shuffled and prevaricated and involved himself in a studied and laboured ambiguity, which has exposed him to bitter taunts and reproaches, and Disraeli has been a perfect will-o'-the-wisp, flitting about from one opinion to another, till his real opinions and intentions are become matter of mere guess and speculation. He has given undoubted proofs of his great ability, and showed how neatly he could handle such a subject as finance, with which he never can have been at all familiar; but having been well taught by his subalterns, and applying a mind naturally clear, ready, and acute to the subject, he contrived to make himself fully master of it, and to produce to the House of Commons a financial statement the excellence of which was universally admitted and gained him great applause. Whatever his motives were—whether because it was all true, and he could not resist the force of truth, or that he thought that the best opportunity he could find for evacuating an untenable position, he pronounced such a full and unreserved panegyric on the results of Free Trade, and so clearly stated them in detail, that his speech was hailed as a practical conversion, and as such cheered vehemently by the Whigs, and received in gloomy silence by his own people. On subsequent occasions he attempted to shuffle out of his previous declarations, and as they cannot afford to quarrel with him, and a great many are like him and obliged to back out of Protection also, no schism has taken place. On all subjects of interest the Government have taken a doubtful, undecided course, and abstained from any bold enunciation of principles and course of action, always temporising, and trying to keep up the hopes of every party and interest by their ambiguous language. On Maynooth, on the Education Question, and the Privy Council Minute, they did this, evidently for electioneering purposes: afraid in one case of affronting Protestant bigotry, and in the other wanting to stimulate the zeal of the Churchmen in their favour.
The appointment that created the greatest surprise, and was the most criticised, that of Sir John Pakington, has turned out, as far as it has gone, one of the best. He has done his business in the House of Commons very fairly, has committed no glaring faults, and has a very tolerable character in his office for industry and apprehension. Walpole, who was thought one of the most capable, has been a failure. He had the folly to make a strong anti-Catholic speech on the Maynooth grant, and he got into the ridiculous scrape about the votes to Militiamen, which he was forced so awkwardly to withdraw amidst a storm of ridicule from every quarter, the real history of which has never yet been explained. The other members of the Cabinet have appeared as mere dummies, and in the House of Lords Derby has never allowed any of them to speak, taking on himself to answer for every department. Young Stanley does not seem to have had much success in the House of Commons, nor to afford much promise of attaining excellence hereafter, at least as an orator. The Chancellor has done very well in his Court, administering justice ably and expeditiously, and nolens aut volens he has concurred in carrying through Parliament some very important law reforms, which will be followed by more. It is by no means unlikely that more has been done in this way than if John Russell's Government had not been thrown out. Lyndhurst came out with great force, and his speech on the Baron de Bode's case was a masterpiece, which was worthy of his more vigorous age, and drew general admiration. Brougham has been extremely quiet and reasonable, devoting himself almost entirely to law reforms, and doing great service, acting a very honourable and useful part. The Opposition have, on the whole, been very moderate and forbearing, with the sole exception of John Russell's opposition to the Militia Bill, which was a great blunder, and drew on him much resentment and disgust on the part of his own friends and adherents. They appear now to have in great measure forgotten and forgiven this unhappy blunder. Palmerston's course has been thoroughly eccentric, and to this hour nobody can make out what he is at, nor what are the motives and the objects of his conduct. At one time it looked as if he was aiming at a junction with Derby, but he voted with Gladstone in his great attack on the Government, and his language has been uniformly that of their opponent, and as if he still considered himself one of the Whig party, though a perfectly independent one. He has taken a pretty active part during the Session, and a very characteristic one, seldom losing an opportunity of saying something spiteful about his former colleagues, and dealing largely in those liberal clap-traps which have always been the chief part of his political stock-in-trade. He wound up the Session by a bitter attack on Granville and John Russell, when the latter was not in the House, and the House of Lords had ended its sittings, so the former had no opportunity of answering him. He was quite wrong in what he said, and so far as Granville and Lord John were concerned could have been easily answered, but he broke out in his old style about foreign politics and Austria, all of which was loudly cheered and greatly admired by his Radical friends, but the whole exhibition regretted and blamed by the more sensible of his own adherents. This speech proved that he has given up all idea of returning to the Foreign Office, which indeed he professes not to desire.
LORD PALMERSTON ATTACKS THE WHIGS.
The above is a very brief and imperfect sketch of the spirit in which the recent short Session has been carried on by the different parties and leaders, presenting a very unsatisfactory prospect for the future; for while a more disgraceful and more degraded Government than this cannot be imagined, it is difficult to see, if they fall, how any fresh combination can be formed, likely to be efficient, popular, and durable. It will be equally difficult to do without, and to do with, John Russell. The Whigs will acknowledge no other leader; their allegiance to him is very loose and capricious; he has lost his popularity and his prestige in the country, and has very little personal influence. Then the unappeasable wrath of the Irish Catholics, who will come to Parliament brigaded together, and above all things determined on his personal exclusion, will make any Government of which he is either the head, or the House of Commons leader, next to impossible. Nothing in the present balanced state of parties can resist a compact body of sixty or seventy men acting together by word of command, and putting a veto on one particular man. No past services nor any future expectations will atone for the Durham Letter, which they seem pledged to a man never to forget or forgive. The country all this time seems to be in a state of complete indifference. The elections are carried on by the opposite parties, but there appears to be no strong current of public opinion in favour of or against any men or any measures. While the press thunders away against Derby and the deep dishonour of his political conduct, the masses seem mighty indifferent on the subject, and as the very conduct that is impugned is principally his shuffling out of his engagement to the cause of Protection, people only become more indifferent from seeing that Free Trade is virtually safe, and so long as the great prosperity now prevailing continues, the country at large does not seem to care a straw whether Lord Derby or Lord anybody else is in office. The zeal of the party in power is always greater ceteris paribus than of that in Opposition, unless some great object is in agitation and at stake, and the Derbyites will make more strenuous efforts to keep the power they have got, than their opponents will make to wrest it from them.
RESULT OF THE ELECTIONS.
London, July 23rd.—After passing a fortnight at Bath, I returned to town, a fortnight ago. The elections are now nearly over, all indeed except some in Ireland. They have been on the whole very unsatisfactory in every respect, and nothing can be more unpromising than our political prospects. The end has been a very considerable gain to the Government, one with which they profess to be perfectly satisfied, and they are quite confident of being able to defeat any attempts to turn them out. In this, I think, they are right, for they certainly will have more than 300 in the House of Commons, all Derbyites, staunch supporters, and moveable like a regiment. The Opposition will number as many, or perhaps rather more; but that is counting Whigs, Radicals of different degrees, Peelites, and the Irish Brigade,—different factions, greatly at variance amongst each other, and who will rarely combine for any political object. There may be about fifty or sixty people who will not consider themselves as belonging to the Government nor to the Opposition, but of whom the majority will probably support the Government, except on particular questions. Disraeli boasts that he shall have 330 followers, and that he knows where to look for stray votes. He probably overrates his regular force, but he will no doubt get a great many of the neutrals. The most remarkable and most deplorable features of the recent election are the exclusion of so many able and respectable men; the malignant and vindictive as well as stupid and obstinate spirit evinced by the constituencies, especially the agricultural, and their bigotry and prejudices, as well as their total indifference to character and intellectual eminence. The conduct of the Government and their supporters has been just what might have been expected from their language in Parliament: they have sacrificed every other object to that of catching votes; at one time and at one place representing themselves as Free Traders, and in another as Protectionists, and everywhere pandering to the ignorance and bigotry of the masses by fanning the No-Popery flame. Disraeli announced that he had no thoughts, and never had any, of attempting to restore Protection in the shape of import duties; but he made magnificent promises of the great things the Government mean to do for the farmers and owners of land, by a scheme the nature and details of which he refused to reveal. All those (comprising almost everybody) who have found themselves obliged to abandon Corn Laws, and to subscribe to the Big Loaf doctrine, have nevertheless talked largely of Protection in the shape of compensation and of justice to the landed interest by means of fiscal arrangements; and this has so far succeeded, that, except in one or two counties, the farmers have been as rabid against Free Trade and for Protection as if the Government had never renounced their old Protectionist principles, and there is no doubt that they have everywhere supported the Derbyite candidates from a conviction that they are to derive some great though unexplained advantage from the Government. This, and the religious cry, and the utter insensibility of the constituencies to the insincere and shuffling conduct of the Ministers and their supporters, have produced the strong party which we shall see established on the right side of the Chair when Parliament meets.
There are also a good number of people who have supported Lord Derby from fear of a Radical alliance between John Russell and Graham and the Manchester men, and the dread of their returning to power with a budget of new Reform Bills, and who really do believe that this Government is, as it pretends to be, a barrier against revolution. Indeed the only satisfactory part of this general election is the undoubted proof it affords of the strength of the Conservative element in the country, and it is only to be regretted that it should be found all enlisted on the side of such a Government as this, and associated with so much of ignorance and fanaticism. These last qualities, however, are common to both parties; and if I had ever been impressed with any popular notions of what is called the good sense of the people, I should be quite disabused of them now; for whichever way we turn our eyes, whether towards those who call themselves Conservative, or those who claim to be Reformers, we find the same evidence of unfitness to deal with important political questions, and to exercise an active influence on public affairs, and on both sides we are disgusted with the profligate means employed by candidates, who pander to every sort of popular prejudice, and in rare instances have the courage and honesty to face them, and to speak out plain and salutary truths.