The Stafford Committee has at length closed its proceedings, after exposures of the most disgraceful kind, which are enormously damaging not only to Augustus Stafford himself but to Lord Derby and his Government. The Duke of Northumberland comes clear out of it as to corruption, but cuts a wretched and ridiculous figure, having failed to perform the duties or to exercise the authority of a First Lord while he was at the Admiralty. Disraeli's evidence was nothing but an attempt to shirk the question and involve it in a confusion of characteristic verbiage which only excited ridicule. This affair has done great harm to them as a party, and served to make them more odious and contemptible than they were before.[1] They are now irretrievably defeated, and though they may give much trouble and throw difficulties and obstructions in the way of the Government, it is all they can do. Every day adds to the strength and consistency of the Government, both from their gaining favour and acquiring influence in the country, and from the ruin in which the Tory party is involved, and the total impossibility of their rallying again so as to form another Government. This latter consideration has already produced the adhesion of some moderate and sensible men who take a dispassionate view of affairs and who wish for a strong and efficient Government, and it will produce still greater effects of the same kind.
[1] [Charges of misconduct in the department of the Admiralty were brought against Mr. Augustus Stafford, who had held office under the late Government. They were investigated by a Select Committee of the House of Commons.]
May 22nd.—I met in a train a day or two ago Graham and the Speaker, not having seen Graham for a long time. Since my friends have been in office I have hardly ever set eyes on them or had any communication with them. Graham seemed in excellent spirits about their political state and prospects, all owing to Gladstone and the complete success of his Budget. The long and numerous Cabinets, which were attributed by the 'Times' to disunion, were occupied in minute consideration of the Budget, which was there fully discussed, and Gladstone spoke in the Cabinet one day for three hours, rehearsing his speech in the House of Commons, though not quite at such length. Graham again said Clarendon was doing admirably. Palmerston he thinks much changed and more feeble, his energy much less, and his best days gone by. He thinks Lord John's position without office an unfortunate one, and regrets he did not stay at the Foreign Office or take another; he thinks his influence impaired by having none. He talked of a future Head, as Aberdeen is always ready to retire at any moment, but it is very difficult to find anyone to succeed him. I suggested Gladstone. He shook his head and said it would not do; and he was for John Russell, but owned there were difficulties there too. He considered Derby and the Tories irretrievably ruined, their characters so damaged by Stafford's Committee and other things; he spoke of the grand mistakes Derby had made. Gladstone's object certainly was for a long time to be at the head of the Conservative party in the House of Commons, and to join with Derby, who might in fact have had all the Peelites if he would have chosen to ally himself with them instead of with Disraeli; thus the latter had been the cause of the ruin of the party. Graham thought that Derby had committed himself to Disraeli in George Bentinck's lifetime in some way that prevented his shaking him off, as it would have been his interest to do. The Peelites would have united with Derby, but would have nothing to do with Disraeli. Bad as the cases were that had come forth at the election committees, that of Liverpool was worse than any of them, and would create a great scandal. Forbes Mackenzie could not face it, and would probably retire; but it is doubtful if this would prevent an enquiry and exposure, and when boundless corruption appeared at such a place as Liverpool, with its numerous constituency, it was a blow to the representative system itself, and showed the futility of attempts to destroy bribery and improper influence.
APPROACHING RUPTURE OF RUSSIA AND TURKEY.
May 30th.—Great alarm the last two or three days at an approaching rupture between Russia and Turkey, as, if it takes place, nobody can pretend to say what the consequences may be. Vast indignation of course against the Emperor of Russia, who certainly appears to have departed from the moderate professions which he made to Seymour a short time ago, and the assurances that were given to us and France. But Clarendon, whom I saw yesterday, is rather disposed to give him credit for more moderate and pacific intentions than his conduct seems to warrant. He says that he is persuaded the Emperor has no idea of the view that is taken of his proceedings here, and that he thinks he is requiring no more than he is entitled to; and it is only the other day that Nesselrode congratulated Seymour on the prospect of everything being satisfactorily settled, having no doubt of the Turks accepting the last proposals made to them, a copy of which Nesselrode showed him. Still, though matters look very black, Clarendon is not without hopes of war being averted and some means found of patching up the affair, the Emperor having promised that he will in no case resort to ulterior measures without giving us notice of his intention. The difficulty for him now is to recede with honour, as it would be to advance without danger. He has once before receded after to a certain degree committing himself, and he may not choose to do so a second time. Then he is naturally provoked with the French, who are in fact the real cause of this by their intrigues and extortions about the holy places; and we suspect that he is, besides this, provoked at the Montenegrin affair having been settled by Austria without his having a finger in that pie. All these considerations combined make great confusion and difficulty. Brunnow is in mortal agony, dreading above all things the possibility of his having to leave this country.
The Government continues to go on very well; the Opposition got up a debate on the legacy duties in the House of Lords the other night, which only served to prove how entirely Derby's influence has declined even there. They had thought themselves sure of beating the Government, but not only were they defeated, but accident alone (people shut out and absent) prevented their being defeated by a considerable majority. The Cabinet is going on in the greatest harmony, and the men who were strangers up to the time of its formation have taken to each other prodigiously. Aberdeen unfortunately wants the qualities which made Lord Lansdowne so good a leader, and is rather deficient in tact and temper in the House of Lords as he used to be formerly, when he attacked Lord Grey's Government and Palmerston's administration of foreign affairs always with too much asperity; but in spite of these defects he has not done ill even there, and in the Cabinet he is both liked and respected, being honest, straightforward, and firm, very fair, candid, and unassuming. Granville tells me that of the whole Cabinet he thinks Aberdeen has the most pluck, Gladstone a great deal, and Graham the one who has the least. He speaks very well of Molesworth, sensible, courageous, and conciliatory, but quite independent and plain spoken in his opinions.
June 1st.—John Russell made an imprudent speech the night before last on the Irish Church, giving great offence to the Irish and the Catholics. He could not help, as leader of the Government, opposing a proposition having for its object the destruction of the Irish Church, but he might have done it with more tact and discretion, and not in a way to elicit the cheers of the Tories. The Tail will pay him off for this whenever they can. Quantum mutatus ab illo, who broke up a Government for the sake of an appropriation clause.
Last night Macaulay reappeared in the House of Commons, and in a speech of extraordinary power and eloquence threw out the Judges' Exclusion Bill.[1] It was the first time he had spoken, and though his physical strength is impaired he showed that his mental powers are undiminished.
UNPOPULARITY OF THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT.
Senior called on me a day or two ago, just returned from Paris, where he has been living and conversing with all the notabilities (principally of the Liberal party), and he tells me there is but one opinion amongst them, that this Empire cannot last, and they only differ as to the time it may last. Most of them think it will be short. Thiers gives it only a year, Duch?tel alone thinks it will go on for some years. The unpopularity of Louis Napoleon increases and his discredit likewise, and as soon as the unpopularity shall extend to the army, it will be all over with him. The Opposition which has sprung up, which has increased rapidly and will increase still more in the Corps L?gislatif, is deemed to be very important and significant, and they think it will be impossible for him to go on with such a body so constituted and disposed, and he will have to decide upon suffering the embarrassment it will cause him, or having recourse to a coup d'?tat, a measure which would be hazardous. There are no fresh adhesions to the Court beyond the half dozen men of rank or name who have already joined it, and who are hated and despised for having done so. While such is the opinion of the people of mark at Paris, they are nevertheless sensible of the danger which would accompany a counter revolution, and of the uncertainty of what might follow, what influences might prevail, and what form of government be adopted; but they seem generally to think that while in the first instance there would be a succession of provisional arrangements and fleeting transitory governments, it would end in the restoration of the monarchy under Henri V., but that this would not take place by the acceptance and triumph of any divine hereditary right, but must be adopted by the nation and ratified by a national vote.