February 25th.—Last night Clarendon made a capital speech in the House of Lords, far superior to any he ever made before, and the best that has yet been made in defence of the Ministerial policy. He has got on wonderfully since the Session began, each of his speeches being much better than the preceding one, till at last he has made one of very great merit and power, as all admit. It was spirited, dignified and discreet. I began to fear he would never get over the misfortune of his want of early practice, and never excel as a speaker; but this speech was so good, that I now hope he will, having acquired confidence and facility, speak up to the level of his ability. The rage for this war gets every day more vehement, and nobody seems to fear anything, but that we may not spend money and men enough in waging it. The few sober people who have courage enough to hint at its being impolitic and uncalled for are almost hooted down, and their warnings and scruples are treated with indignation and contempt. It does now appear as if Austria had made up her mind to act with us, and that we may depend upon her. The French made known to the Austrian Government some time ago that, in the alternative of her taking a hostile part, she must expect to be attacked in Italy, and Clarendon early in the business pointed out to Colloredo all the serious consequences his Government had to apprehend in all parts of her dominions if she abetted Russia. With a war so popular, and supported cordially by Parliament, and a flourishing revenue and trade, Government would look round on a cloudless horizon, if it were not for the Reform Bill, which is a matter replete with uncertainty, difficulty, and danger. Nobody has an idea whether it will be carried in the House of Commons; almost all the friends of Government want Lord John to withdraw it, and the Cabinet is divided on the subject, Lord John, Graham, and Aberdeen being strongly in favour of pressing it on at all hazards, Palmerston violently against. He has now reproduced all his own objections and arguments against the Bill itself, as well as against forcing it on now, quite justified in the latter, but unjustifiable in the former course. Having once knocked under, and come back to office, consenting to swallow it, however reluctantly, it is too late to cavil at the Bill itself; but he may consistently and properly unite his voice with the voices of all prudent and moderate men, and strenuously resist its being persevered in at this moment against a feeling and opinion which are all but universal. On the whole, I rather expect (but with much doubt) that Lord John will yield to the general sentiment, and consent to postpone it.
February 27th.—We are on the very verge of a Ministerial crisis. John Russell will listen to no reason about his Reform Bill, he insists on going on with it, and will have it that his honour and character demand that he should, and he says, 'When the honour of public men is preserved, the country is safe.' Clarendon dined here yesterday, and told me he thought Lord John would break up the Government. It is, in fact, a political duel between Lord John and Palmerston. ---- thinks, and probably he is right, that at the last moment Palmerston will give way, but in the meantime he himself and all his followers and admirers are moving Heaven and earth to defeat the measure, and to set up opposition to it—none more active than Hayter, Secretary to the Treasury, whose borough is one of those to be disfranchised. Everybody thinks Sir Edward Denny's motion will be carried, and if it is that Lord John will retire. If it were not for the difficulty about leading the House of Commons, this would not signify. I do not see how any arrangement is possible but that Palmerston should take the lead, but I do not know if this will not lead to other resignations. Clarendon is indignant at the state of things brought about by Lord John's obstinacy. He told me that Graham supported Lord John vehemently, but that Aberdeen took no strong part, and had behaved very well. Having accepted Lord John's Reform measure, and pledged himself to it, he was ready still to abide by that pledge. There never was such a mess as it all is. Clarendon is now very hot on this war, which he fancies is to produce great and uncontemplated effects. He says for very many years past Russia has been the great incubus on European improvement, and the real cause of half the calamities that have afflicted the world, and he thinks a great opportunity now presents itself of extinguishing her pernicious influence, and by liberating other countries from it, the march of improvement and better government will of necessity be developed and accelerated, and in this way civilisation itself may be the gainer by this contest. The Emperor Napoleon has earnestly pressed that our contingent should be put under the command of the French Marshal, to which we have altogether objected, and he has acquiesced, though reluctantly. We have agreed on a sort of mezzo termine, viz. that, in the event of a battle in which both forces are engaged, they should be under one Commander-in-Chief, who must be the Frenchman. Clarendon lamented that he had got no better Minister at Vienna than Westmorland just now, who though well meaning is nearly useless, as Colloredo is here, who will take nothing on himself. He says Castelbajac at St. Petersburg has really not represented the French Government at all, nor acted in any way in conjunction with Seymour, but been all along a base courtier of the Emperor Nicholas. Clarendon has again and again remonstrated through Cowley with Drouyn de Lhuys on this inconsistency, and Drouyn has always replied that he is quite aware of it, and has been at least as much annoyed at it as we could be, but that the Emperor would never allow him to be recalled. I asked Clarendon whether, now that war really was inevitable, Aberdeen was more reconciled to it, and he said not at all; he yielded to the necessity, but very sulkily, and in the discussions relating to it in the Cabinet he took no part, and evinced a total indifference, or rather disgust. However, he expressed great admiration of Clarendon's speech, which he said was the best he ever heard. Lord John has sent to his brother to come to town, telling him a crisis is at hand. Granville, who is all with Lord John, personally and politically a Reformer, and highly approving of this Bill, is going to him to-day to see if he can prevail on him to give way to the general opinion, and at all events to put him in possession of what is said and thought on the subject.
THE REFORM BILL POSTPONED.
March 6th.—After a great struggle John Russell was persuaded to put off his Reform Bill, but only till the end of April, so that in a few weeks the same embarrassment will begin again. The satisfaction at its being deferred at all is great and general, and everybody thinks that some expedient will be devised for putting it off again, when the time comes, and so that we shall be rid of it for this year. All the Cabinet was for putting it off, except Graham and Aberdeen. The former has devoted himself to Lord John, and goes heart and soul with him. Why Aberdeen took that view I cannot imagine, unless he wished to bring about a crisis, and to make his escape by favour of it. My own opinion at present is, that on April 27 Lord John will insist on bringing it on, and abide the consequences. The tenour of his speech and still more that of Aberdeen, the same night, lead me to that conclusion. The Radicals with old Hume at the head of them, approved of the course Lord John took, but expressly with the understanding that he really meant and would bring it on at the period to which it was postponed; and as he is sure to be incessantly urged on by his entourage to be firm when the time comes, and he will be very reluctant to encounter the indignation and reproaches of his reforming friends and adherents, the chances seem to me to be in favour of the battle taking place. I think his speech on putting it off was not at all good, nor what he ought to have said. He laid himself open to an attack from Disraeli, which was very just, and he could not answer it. It was quite absurd to ground the postponement on the war and its exigencies, and it was moreover not the real and true reason. He put it off because he was importuned by everybody to do so, because Hayter proved to him that he would infallibly be defeated, and because there was no other way of preventing a break-up of the Government. He might have anticipated Disraeli's philippic by reverting to what he had before said, repeating his own conviction that the war afforded no reason for not going on with the Bill; but that he found so many of his own friends and such a general concurrence of feeling in the House of Commons on the other side, added to great indifference in the country, that he had thought it right to defer to those opinions, and give up his own to them. Such a defence of his conduct as this would have been more effective and more consistent with the truth, but it would have involved something like an acknowledgement of error, from which it is probable that his pride and obstinacy revolted, so he made what I think was a very bad speech. If he does bring it on again in April, I expect he will be defeated, and then retire. In any case his retirement will lead to Palmerston's elevation, as leader of the House of Commons if Lord John goes alone, as Prime Minister if Graham and Aberdeen go with him, and there seems no alternative, unless Lansdowne can be induced to replace Aberdeen, which some think not impossible, though it would only be for a short time.
[CHAPTER VI.]
Dinner to Sir Charles Napier—A Ministerial Indiscretion—Doubts as to the Reform Bill—Discontent of Lord John Russell—The Secret Correspondence with Russia—War declared—Weakness of the Government—Mr. Greville disapproves the War—Divisions in the Cabinet—Withdrawal of the Reform Bill—Blunder of the Government—The Fast Day—Licences to trade in War—Death of the Marquis of Anglesey—Mr. Gladstone's Financial Failures—Dissolution of Parties—Mr. Gladstone's Budget—Lord Cowley's Opinion of the Emperor's Position—The House of Commons supports the War—Disraeli attacks Lord John Russell—A Change of Plans—Lord John Russell's Mismanagement—Attacks on Lord Aberdeen—Popularity of the War—Government Majority in the Lords—Attitude of the German Powers—A Meeting of the Liberal Party—An Appointment cancelled—Expedition to the Crimea—English and French Policy united in Spain—Close of the Session—The Character of Lord Aberdeen's Government—Effect of the Quarrel with Russia—Lord Palmerston's Resignation—Waywardness of the House of Commons.
DINNER TO SIR CHARLES NAPIER.
London, March 13th, 1854.—The only event of recent occurrence was the dinner given last week to Sir Charles Napier at the Reform Club, with Lord Palmerston in the chair. Everybody disapproves of the whole proceeding, which is thought to have been unwise and in bad taste. The only Ministers there besides Palmerston were Graham and Molesworth, and the former made an excessively foolish, indiscreet speech, which has been generally censured, and to-night he is to be called to account for it in the House of Commons. It is marvellous that a man of mature age, who has been nearly forty years in public life, should be so rash and ill-judged in his speeches.[1] There seems now to be a better chance of John Russell's again putting off his Reform Bill next month. There are not two opinions, except among the extreme Radicals, of the expediency of his doing so, and his best friends (including his brother) greatly regret that he did not put it off sine die instead of to another fixed day.