The French Government have given a strong proof of their goodwill to us by recalling Baraguay d'Hilliers from Constantinople, and not sending another ambassador, as they find none can possibly live on good terms with Stratford. Cowley says the war might have been prevented, he thinks, and particularly if Stratford had not been there. The Emperor would have made greater concessions if Stratford had not been at Constantinople, and another ambassador would have striven to preserve peace instead of being, as he was, bent on producing a war.
Edward Mills tells me Gladstone's recent speech has immensely raised him, and that he stands very high in the City, his defence of his measures very able, and produced a great effect; he said he lately met Walpole, who told him he had the highest admiration of Gladstone, and thought he had more power than ever Peel had even at his highest tide.
DEFEATS OF THE GOVERNMENT.
May 28th.—I have been so much occupied with the very dissimilar occupations of preparations for Epsom races in the shape of trials, betting, &c., and the finishing and correction of an article in the 'Edinburgh Review' on King Joseph's Memoirs, that I have had no leisure to think of politics, or to record what has been going on in the political world, nor in truth has much material been furnished either by domestic or foreign transactions. The last fortnight in Parliament has been going on much in the way in which the present Government always goes on, and Gladstone, whom I met at dinner the other day, repeated to me very much what Graham had said some time before, about their utter inability to carry their measures in the House of Commons. There is, however, one important exception to this rule, and that is one of vital importance. On everything which relates to the war, and on all questions of supply, they can do whatever they please, and have no difficulty, and encounter no opposition. Tom Baring's motion on Monday last exhibited a striking proof of this; he introduced it by an able speech, and he mustered all the support that could be got, and yet he was defeated by above 100. I met Disraeli in the street the next day, when he said, 'Your Government is very strong.' I said, the war which was supposed to be their weakness turns out to be their strength. They can carry everything which appertains to that, and nothing else. And so it is; no sooner do they get a great majority on some important question than they find themselves in a minority, perhaps more than one, on something else. John Russell got beaten on his Oaths Bill the other night, a victory which was hailed with uproarious delight by the Opposition, though leading to nothing, and only mortifying to John Russell personally. These defeats, however, do not fail to be morally injurious to the Government, and to shake their credit. It was an ill advised measure, which drew down upon itself those who are against the Jews and those who are against the Catholics. Palmerston has been showing ill humour in the House of Commons, and has ceased to be so very popular as he used to be there. They have great difficulty in getting on with the University Bill, and Gladstone told me the other night he was very doubtful if they should be able to bring it to a successful end. All the Tories and High Churchmen are against it of course, and the Dissenters regard it with no favour because it does not do for them what they desire; so it is left to the support of the friends of Government and those who sincerely desire a good measure of reform for those bodies.
June 5th.—I was at Epsom all last week. In the beginning of it or the week before there was a great passage of arms in the House of Commons between John Russell and Disraeli, not a very creditable exhibition, but which excited greater interest than more important matters. Though Disraeli began the attack, Lord John threw the first stone of offence, which he had better have let alone. In reply to this Disraeli broke out with inconceivable violence and made the most furious assault upon John that he could, saying everything most offensive and provoking. Lord John made a rejoinder, and was followed by Bright, whose speech was very hostile and spiteful, and much more calculated to annoy Lord John than that of Disraeli, though much less vituperative. Disraeli seems inclined to have recourse to his old tactics against Peel, and to endeavour to treat John Russell, and Gladstone when he can, in the same way, hoping probably to re-ingratiate himself with his own side by giving them some of those invectives and sarcasms against their opponents which are so congenial to their tastes. This course will not raise him either in the House or in the country, and he will not find in Lord John a man either so sensitive or so vulnerable as Peel, and he can make out nothing against a man who refuses place, patronage, and emolument, and gives his gratuitous services at a great personal sacrifice because he thinks it his public duty to do so. There is nothing new in the condition of the Government; they are very firmly seated in their places, the House of Commons supporting them by large majorities in all their great measures and those which involve a question of confidence; but having no dependable majority on miscellaneous questions, nor even knowing whether they can carry any measure or not, it is idle to twit them with being a Government on sufferance and Lord John with not 'leading' the House of Commons. A revolution has taken place in the conditions of the political existence of governments in general and their relations with Parliament, and there is at present no likelihood that any government that can be formed will find itself in different circumstances, or that the old practice by which a government could command the House of Commons on almost everything will ever be restored. Whether the new system be better or worse than the old may be doubtful, but governments must make up their minds to conform to it for the present at least. In the course of the next few days the division of the Colonial from the War Department will take place. There seems little doubt that Newcastle will elect to take the War Department, and Clarendon told me yesterday he thought he would be the best man for it, warmly praising his energy, industry, and ability, and his popular and conciliatory qualities. Their great object is to prevail on Lord John to take the Colonial Office, which I expect he will eventually do, but not without much reluctance and hesitation. Granville tells me he is in a dissatisfied state of mind, in which he will probably long remain, especially as his entourage will always do their best to foment his discontent.
THE PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNCIL.
June 11th.—Yesterday and the day before the world was made acquainted with the recent arrangements and appointments, which have been received with considerable disapprobation.[1] Nobody can understand what it all means, and why John Russell, if he was to take office, was to insist on so strange an arrangement, and such a departure from the invariable practice of putting a peer in the office of President of the Council. Nothing can be more ungracious than the air of the whole proceeding: he turns out Granville to make room for himself, and turns out Strutt to make room for Granville. It seems that they wanted him to be Colonial Secretary, but this he would not hear of on the score of his health, and as it is now admitted as an axiom that the leader in the House of Commons has enough to do, and cannot efficiently discharge the duties of a laborious department, it was reasonable enough that Lord John should decline the Colonies; but there seems no sufficient reason for his not taking the Duchy of Lancaster, for the more completely the office is a sinecure, the more consistent his taking it would appear. However, he would be President of the Council or nothing. I have been amazed at his indelicacy and want of consideration towards Granville, who deserved better treatment at his hands. Granville has always been his steady and stout adherent, defending his Reform Bill, holding himself his especial follower in the Coalition Cabinet, and ready to support him or go out with him if necessary. It was therefore particularly odious to insist on foisting himself into Granville's place, and inflicting on him the mortification of going downstairs. Granville behaved very well about it, with great good humour, only anxious to do whatever was best for the general interest, and putting aside every personal consideration and feeling; and his conduct is the more meritorious, because he dislikes the arrangement of all things. Aberdeen behaved very kindly to him, and told him, if he objected to the change, he would not consent to it, and, cost what it might, would tell John Russell he could not and should not have the place. Granville proposed to go out, at least for a time, but Aberdeen said he could not spare him, and nothing could be more flattering than all he expressed of his usefulness in the House of Lords, and of the value of his services. Personally, therefore, he loses nothing; for though he preferred the Council Office to the Duchy, his conduct has raised him in everybody's estimation, and he will play a part even more prominent than he did before.
LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S POSITION.
One reason why Lord John should not have come to the Council Office was the embarrassment he will be sure to find himself in about questions of education, his reputation and his antecedents, as well as his political connexions, making him peculiarly unfit to be at the head of the Education Department; and I am inclined to agree with Vernon Smith, who said to me the other day that it would infallibly end in Lord John's bringing in next year an impracticable Education Bill and withdrawing it. George Grey's coming into office will be of use to the Government. Newcastle's being War Minister is sure to be attacked, and all the Palmerstonians are indignant that Palmerston is not in that place, which never was offered him, nor was he consulted about the arrangement. I think there is still a considerable opinion that he would make a good War Minister, though everybody is aware he makes a very bad Home one, and the prestige about him and his popularity are greatly worn out. They have been obliged to go back to the reign of Henry VIII. to find a precedent for a commoner being President of the Council, when they say there was one, but I don't know who he was.