November 3rd.—Since writing the above, circumstances have occurred which may have an important influence on future political events. John Russell, whether moved by his own reflexions or the advice or opinions of others I know not, has entirely changed his mind and become more reasonable, moderate, and pliable than he has hitherto shown himself. He has announced that if it should hereafter be found practicable to form a Liberal Government under Lord Lansdowne, he will not object to serve under him, only reserving to himself to judge of the expediency of attempting such an arrangement, as well as of the Government that may be formed. The letter in which he announced this to Lord Lansdowne was certainly very creditable to him, and evinced great magnanimity. He desired that it might be made known to Palmerston, which was done by Lord Lansdowne, and Palmerston replied with great satisfaction, saying, 'for the first time he now saw daylight in public affairs.' Lord Lansdowne was himself gratified at Lord John's conduct to him, but he said that it would expose him to fresh importunities on the part of Palmerston, and he seems by no means more disposed than he was before to take the burden on himself, while he is conscious that it will be more difficult for him to refuse. He has been suffering very much, and is certainly physically unequal to the task, and le cas ?ch?ant he will no doubt try to make his escape; but, from what I hear of him, I do not think he will be inexorable if it is made clear to him that there is no other way of forming a Liberal Government, and especially if Lord John himself urges him to undertake it.
The other important matter is a correspondence, or rather a letter from Cobden to a friend of his, in which he expresses himself in very hostile terms towards John Russell and Graham likewise, abuses the Whig Government, and announces his determination to fight for Radical measures, and especially the Ballot. This letter was sent to Lord Yarborough, by him to the Duke of Bedford, and by the Duke to Lord John. He wrote a reply, or, more properly, a comment on it, which was intended to be, and I conclude was, sent to Cobden; a very good letter, I am told, in which he vindicated his own Government, and declared his unalterable resolution to oppose the Ballot, which he said was with him a question of principle, on which he never would give way. The result of all this is a complete separation between Lord John and Cobden, and therefore between the Whigs and the Radicals. What the ultimate consequences of this may be it is difficult to foresee, but the immediate one will probably be the continuation of Derby in office. Lord John is going to have a parliamentary dinner before the meeting, which many of his friends think he had better have left alone. He wrote to Graham and invited him to it. Graham declined, and said he should not come up to the meeting. To this Lord John responded that he might do as he pleased about dining, but he assured him that his absence at the opening of the Session would give great umbrage to the party and be injurious to himself. Graham replied that he would come up, but he has expressed to some of his correspondents his disapproval of the dinner. Charles Villiers agrees with him about it, and so do I, but the Johnians are very indignant with Graham, and consider his conduct very base, though I do not exactly see why.
NATIONAL DEFENCES.
The question of national defence occupies everybody's mind, but it seems very doubtful if any important measures will be taken. The Chancellor told Senior that the Government were quite satisfied with Louis Napoleon's pacific assurances, and saw no danger. It is not clear that John Russell partakes of the general alarm, and whether he will be disposed (as many wish that he should) to convey to Lord Derby an intimation that he will support any measure he may propose for the defence of the country, nor is it certain that Derby would feel any reliance on such assurances after what passed when he came into office. On that occasion Derby called on Lord John (who had just advised the Queen to send for him) and said on leaving him, 'I suppose you are not going to attack me and turn me out again,' which Lord John assured him he had no thoughts of, and directly after he convoked his Chesham Place meeting, which was certainly not very consistent with his previous conduct, nor with his engagement to Derby.
London, November 11th, 1852.—I passed two days at The Grove with John Russell the end of last and beginning of this week, when he was in excellent health and spirits, and in a very reasonable composed state of mind. There were Wilson, Panizzi, George Lewis, and the Duke of Bedford; very little talk about politics, except in a general way. Lord John has been engaged in literary pursuits, as the executor of Moore and the depositary of Fox's papers, and he is about to bring out two volumes of Moore and one of Fox, but in neither is there to be much of his own composition; he has merely arranged the materials in each.
There has been great curiosity about the Queen's Speech, and a hundred reports of difficulties in composing it, and of dissensions in the Cabinet with regard to the manner in which the great question should be dealt with. As I know nothing certain on the subject, I will spare myself the trouble of putting down the rumours, which may turn out to be groundless or misrepresented. A great fuss has been made about keeping the Speech secret. They refused to communicate it to the newspapers, and strict orders were given at the Treasury to allow nobody whatever to see it. Derby, however, wrote to Lord John that as he had always sent it to him, he should do the same, and accordingly Lord John received it, and read it at his dinner, but those present were bound on honour not to communicate the contents of it. Lord John and his friends have been all along determined, if possible, to avoid proposing an amendment.
There was a Peelite gathering at a dinner at Hayward's the day before yesterday, at which Gladstone, Sidney Herbert, Newcastle, Francis Charteris, Sir John Young, and others were present; and Hayward told me they were all united, resolved to act together, and likewise averse to an amendment if possible; but from the manner in which they have dealt with Free Trade, it is very doubtful whether Cobden at least, if not Gladstone, will not insist on moving an amendment. A very few hours will decide this point.[1]
[1] [The new Parliament was opened by the Queen in person on November 11.]
November 12th.—The question of Protection or Free Trade, virtually settled long ago, was formally settled last night, Derby having announced in terms the most clear and unequivocal his final and complete abandonment of Protection, and his determination to adhere to, and honestly to administer, the present system. His speech was received in silence on both sides. There has not yet been time to ascertain the effect of this announcement on the various parties and individuals interested by it.
DUKE OF WELLINGTON'S FUNERAL.