December 12th.—The Conference to which Clarendon told me he would not agree is going to take place after all, but everybody is ridiculing what is notoriously a got-up comedy with a foregone conclusion, devised to solve the difficulty into which all the great actors had got themselves, but it is not yet quite clear what the modus operandi is to be. From what I have picked up here and there I gather that Sardinia is to be induced to give a casting vote against Russia, leaving France still at liberty to fulfil her original engagement and vote with her, while we obtain the object for which we have stood out, and by such a dodge to bring the dispute to an end. When Parliament meets there will be plenty to be said about this affair and about Naples, and no doubt the Opposition or the malcontents will be able to bombard the Government and vent their spleen, but that will be all, for Palmerston is perfectly invulnerable and may commit any blunders with impunity.
LEADERSHIP OF THE OPPOSITION.
A report has been lately current that Gladstone will become the leader of the Opposition vice Disraeli, a report I thought quite wild and improbable, but I heard the other day something which looks as if it was not so much out of the question as I had imagined. George Byng told me he had met Sir William Jolliffe, who is the Derbyite whipper-in, at Wrotham, and having asked him whether there was any foundation for the above report, he replied that it certainly was not true at present, that he could not say what might or might not happen hereafter, but that he could not at once be accepted as leader, and must in any case first serve in the ranks. I do not know what may be the value of Jolliffe's opinions, or what he knows of the intentions of his chief, but he may probably be more or less acquainted with the sentiments of his party, and may be aware that their necessities have modified their extreme repugnance to Gladstone, and that they may now be willing to accept him as leader (eventually), though two years ago they so peremptorily insisted on his entire exclusion from their political society. Meanwhile there is no combination amongst them. Derby is at Knowsley amusing himself, and Disraeli at Paris, doing nobody knows what.
There is talk of Lord Granville's resigning the lead and his office and going to Ireland instead of Carlisle, or to Paris instead of Cowley, but he has never intimated the least intention of doing either. Ireland he certainly will not go to; Paris is not so impossible. There seems some doubt whether his health will admit of his going on in the House of Lords, and if they knew how to get Cowley away from Paris without doing him an injustice or an unkindness, I think they would not be sorry, for his position there is unsatisfactory. It is a serious inconvenience to be on such terms with Walewski that they never converse at all except when business obliges them to meet, and the consequence of their relations is that all affairs between the two countries are carried on between Clarendon and Persigny in London, and as little as possible at Paris, because the Emperor now fights rather shy of Cowley, and is by no means on the same terms with him as heretofore, though always very civil and cordial enough when they meet; and His Majesty will not part with Walewski, who, although of a moderate capacity, is clever enough to know how to deal with his master, and make himself agreeable to him, and the Emperor knows that if he were to change his Minister for Foreign Affairs, it would be attributed to the influence of England and be on that account unpopular. The English press has rendered Walewski the incalculable service of making him popular in France, and rendering it impossible for the Emperor to dismiss him, even if he had a mind to do so, which he has not.
DICTATORIAL POLICY TO BRAZIL.
December 17th.—There was an article in the 'Times' the day before yesterday commenting in severe terms upon a transaction of our Foreign Office, as set forth in a Blue Book, in relation to Brazil. It was the old subject of the slave trade, and the old method of arrogant overbearing meddling and dictation, a case as odious and unjust as any one of those by which Palmerston's foreign administration has ever been disgraced. I really no longer recognise my old friend Clarendon, in whose good sense and moderation I used to place implicit confidence, and believed that he would inaugurate a system at the Foreign Office very different from that of Palmerston, and which would tend to relieve us from the excessive odium and universal unpopularity which Palmerston had drawn upon us. It appears that I was mistaken. I told Granville yesterday morning what I thought of this case, and asked him if it was correctly stated. He said he regarded it just as I did, and that it was quite true, every word of it. I then expressed my astonishment that Clarendon should have acted in this way, and he replied, 'The fault of Clarendon is that he is always thinking of the effect to be produced by Blue Books, and he looks after popularity, and is influenced by those he acts with. Under Aberdeen he was very moderate, but he saw that the moderation of Aberdeen made him unpopular, while Palmerston's popularity in great measure arose from his very different manner towards other Powers, so when Palmerston became Prime Minister instead of Aberdeen, he fell readily into the Palmerstonian method.' I dare say this is the truth, and besides the contagion of Palmerston himself, he is surrounded by men at the Foreign Office who are prodigious admirers of Palmerston and of his slashing ways, and who no doubt constantly urge Clarendon to adopt a similar style. All this is to me matter of great regret personally, and it is revolting as to good taste, and, as I believe, to our national interests. It is, however, a consolation to see that the most powerful and influential of our journals has the courage, independence, and good sense to protest publicly against such violent and unjustifiable proceedings.
[CHAPTER XIII.]
State of England after the War—Prussia and Neufch�tel—Sir Robert Peel's Account of the Russian Coronation—An Historical Puzzle—The Death of Princess Lieven—Mr. Spurgeon's Preaching—Mr. Gladstone in Opposition—Tit for Tat—Difficult Relations with France—Lord John in Opposition—The Liddell v. Westerton Case—Death of Lord Ellesmere—Violent Opposition to the Government on the China Question—Languid Defence of the Government—Impending Dissolution—Popularity of Lord Palmerston—Despotism of Ministers—Parliament dissolved—Judgement on Liddell v. Westerton—Lord Palmerston's Address—The Elections—Defeat of the Manchester Leaders—Fear of Radical Tendencies—The Country approves the Chinese Policy—Death of Lady Keith.