To turn to the Government here, their two great rocks ahead are the India Bill and the Reform Bill, but with regard to these there seems no knowledge how parties will act, and how leading individuals will vote. Most people, however, are impressed with the idea that neither measure will be carried, and that the Government will in all probability not get through the session. It will be too absurd if Palmerston, after being the idol of the public, in spite of or in consequence of all his foolish speeches and his outrageous acts, should find himself deserted and his power shaken because he made Clanricarde Privy Seal; but there can be no doubt that this appointment has had more effect than any other cause in the change of public opinion about him.
February 14th.—Last week saw the debates in the House of Commons about the Conspiracy Bill, and the first act of the India Bill. The first is very unpopular, but it will be carried nevertheless. John Russell has taken it up with extraordinary vehemence and anger. His opposition to it is furious, on high constitutional grounds, which appear to me absurd and uncalled for. If I were in Parliament I should be puzzled how to vote, for there is much to be said against the Bill, and much against voting against it, particularly against leave to bring it in. Almost all the Tories voted with Government, and John Russell carried very few with him, and neither of his own nephews. He is more than ever exasperated against Palmerston for bringing it in. The apology tended by the Emperor, which was read to the House, reconciled a great many to the bill, but I have no notion that it will do any good, or that the French Government will be satisfied with it. After such a bill, which will certainly be carried, the British Lion must put his tail between his legs, and 'Civis Romanus' give up swaggering so loftily. If Aberdeen had attempted such a measure when Louis Philippe was King and Guizot minister, what would Palmerston have said, and what would not have been the indignant outcry throughout the country? The balance of opinion now seems to be that Government will carry their India Bill, and the report is that they are willing, if the second reading is carried, to consent to any alterations that may be pressed upon them in Committee. Lewis seems to have made a good speech on Friday, though rather of a didactic character.
A CRITICAL SITUATION.
February 20th.[1]—Unless I were to write down day by day the events and the impressions of each day I should fail in giving anything like a picture of the time, and I regret that my indolence or other occupations have prevented my doing this. I have each day promised myself I would not neglect it, and then, failing to keep that promise (to myself), I have found some fresh occurrence sweeping away the interest, and generally the accurate recollection, of what the preceding days have produced. The varieties of the aspects of public affairs have been like the figures in a kaleidoscope, and one ought to catch each fleeting symmetrical arrangement before it is changed into some other equally fleeting in order to comprehend the rapidity and importance of the changes which are going on. Not long ago (that is, not many weeks) a vague idea began to circulate that the Government would have difficulty in getting successfully through this session, and that their power had suffered some diminution. It was thought that the India Bill and the Reform Bill would be too much for them, and when a little later the events in France induced them to bring in the Conspiracy Bill, the excessive unpopularity of this last measure strengthened the impression of their instability. Everybody out of the pale of the Government itself admitted that Palmerston was not the man he was, and the diminution of his popularity was visible universally. This was attributed to several smaller causes, but the great one was the appointment of Clanricarde; which beyond all doubt has been regarded with a disgust and indignation to the last degree exaggerated and uncalled for. Such was the state of public feeling and opinion when the Parliamentary campaign opened with the discussions first of the Conspiracy Bill, and secondly of the Reform Bill. After a few days, however, a great change seemed to have taken place, though the country and the Press watched with great jealousy the progress of the Conspiracy Bill, keeping up a very loud growl of dislike to the Bill, and resentment against the French Government. In the division on the question of leave to bring in the bill the majority of the Conservatives came over to the Government, and they got a majority of the Conservatives of three to one. A few days after Palmerston brought in the India Bill, about which for a moment it was thought Baring with his amendment might run him hard, but after a very poor debate, in which the Chancellor of the Exchequer made a very good speech, and the President of the Board of Control made no speech at all, the Government got a majority of near 150. These two victories, though the first was obtained by the aid of opponents, raised the spirits of the Ministerialists, and were generally taken as indicative of more strength than they had been supposed to have, and as pretty clear proofs that Palmerston would at all events get unscathed through this session with not much diminished authority and influence.
[1] [On February 19 the Government were defeated on the Conspiracy Bill, in the House of Commons, by a majority of 234 to 215, Mr. Milner Gibson's amendment having been carried against them. The majority consisted of 146 Conservatives, 84 Liberals. Mr. Gladstone, Lord John Russell, Sir James Graham, Mr. Cardwell, and Mr. Sidney Herbert voted against the Bill. Lord Palmerston immediately resigned.]
But while they were triumphing in the fancied security which these divisions seemed to promise them, a storm was gathering, for the bursting of which, they were far from being prepared, nor did they estimate its importance. The public feeling had become more and more exasperated at the Conspiracy Bill, and at the conduct of France. The first reading of the bill would not have been carried as it was, perhaps not at all, but for the apology, as it was called, of the Emperor, and the soothing effect of Walewski's despatch carrying expressions of his master's regret and a sort of half disclaimer of the military addresses. But this soothing effect was very transitory. It was remarked that while the 'Moniteur' continued to insert fresh addresses of an offensive character, the apologetic despatch did not appear at all, and the original despatch of Walewski (January 20), which had excited so much indignation here, and which was not denied to have been the origin of the Conspiracy Bill, lay upon the table of the House of Commons unanswered by our Government. On this point a good deal of surprise and anger had been evinced in the Press and in society, and the discontent against the Government generally, and Palmerston in particular, was still spreading, when Milner Gibson took advantage of the prevailing temper, and moved a resolution in the shape of an amendment to the second reading of the bill, very skilfully concocted, but which was a direct vote of censure upon the Government (particularly of course directed against Palmerston and Clarendon) for not having answered that despatch.
DEFEAT OF THE GOVERNMENT.
Palmerston, I have been assured, when he saw the terms of this amendment, perceived that it might be dangerous, and that it was well calculated to get votes; but it is certain that the Government generally were in no apprehension, and that nobody of any party (I believe literally nobody) had the least idea that any vote of censure, which of course involved the existence of the Government, had the slightest chance of being carried. I met Sir Edward Lytton at the Athen�um on Friday, just as he was going to the House, and had some conversation with him. He treated Palmerston's position as impregnable, and said he would have a very large majority that evening. So confident were the Government whippers in that they made no exertions, and Hayter actually allowed some of his people to go away unpaired, telling them that they were quite safe, and their presence not necessary. I went to the House of Lords that evening to hear Macaulay, who was to have spoken but did not speak, and afterwards went home, hearing nothing more that night. Great was my astonishment when I read in the 'Times' this morning that Government had been beaten on Milner Gibson's motion by 19, and a few minutes after Granville came in and said that this defeat must be conclusive and nothing left for them but to resign. A Cabinet was held in the afternoon, at which it was decided that Palmerston should repair to Buckingham Palace with the resignations of himself and his colleagues.
February 21st.—Nothing more was known last night, but it was evident that Derby had been sent for in preference to Lord John, whom I met at Brooks's in the morning, and who did not expect the Queen to send for him. He told me Gladstone, he believed, and Graham, he knew, would not join Derby, and he thought neither Sidney Herbert nor Cardwell would either. As to the future, there really are quot homines tot sententi�. Some think Derby cannot form a Government, some that he will not try. The sanguine Palmerstonians think all other attempts will fail and Palmerston remain in power, as Lord Grey did in 1831, and some fancy he will endeavour to propitiate the House of Commons and public opinion by throwing overboard Clanricarde, to whose appointment the mischief is in great measure attributed. Such is at this moment the state of doubt and confusion which generally prevail.
February 23rd.—Nothing is yet known of Derby's progress except that he tried the Peelites, not one of whom would join. He sent for Newcastle from Clumber, who came up, saw him, and declined. It is evident that they mean to act in concert, except probably Graham, who has espoused John Russell, and who will not separate himself from Lord John's fortunes. There was a prevailing expectation yesterday that Derby would abandon his attempt, and that Palmerston would come back, but Derby seems quite determined to go on. The Palmerstonians certainly expect their exclusion to be of short duration, and nobody thinks that any Government Derby can possibly make will last long.