It may seem a far cry from the 200,000 telephones used by the farmers of Indiana, the trolleys which tangle their way through that State, and the automobiles and bicycles which traverse the country roads, to the gum forests of South America. But the world’s hunger for crude rubber is a growing one. Bicycles, the infinite variety of motors, electric lighting, and telephones, all demand more of this article; and the 55,000 tons, which was substantially the world’s production in 1905, is insufficient for future needs. This increasing demand will stimulate the rubber production of an extensive region in northeastern Peru, and Peru has imperative reasons of national policy for wanting to turn that traffic down her own rivers, and across and over the Andes to the Pacific, instead of letting it flow out through Brazilian territory. Iquitos, the centre of this commerce, is 2,300 miles up the Amazon from Para, and Para is 3,000 miles from New York, a total of 5,300 miles by the all-water route. By river and future rail Iquitos is, at the furthest, 800 miles from Paita, and Paita, via Panama, is a little short of 3,100 miles from New York; so that the total distance is less than 4,000 miles. New Orleans by the isthmian route is within 3,300 miles of the Peruvian rubber metropolis.
Instead of the Pacific commerce being limited to the seashore strip after the Panama Canal is dug, the view which receives attention in South America is the probable influence of the waterway in diverting traffic from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Trade may not be turned upstream, and commerce is slow to leave established lines of transportation, but trade-waves are not so fixed as isothermal lines. They may show variations until the current finds its natural course to the newer markets created.
I do not mean from this to infer that the aggregate commerce of the Atlantic coast countries of South America will be lessened by the Panama Canal. Tropical Brazil, for an indefinite period, will continue to supply the bulk of the coffee consumed, and the maritime movement will follow the existing courses of navigation. Temperate Brazil, the Argentine Republic, and Uruguay will develop as the granary and the grazing-ground of the world in proportion as the United States consumes its own wheat and beef. Their exports increase with the widening of the market for these staple products. Political economists and crop statisticians have been slow to perceive that the extension of the area of agricultural cultivation and the growth of population in this great cereal region depend more on the ability of Europe to take the surplus grain, beef, and mutton than on the demands for home consumption. Public men, especially in the Argentine Republic, in their measures for encouraging immigration also have neglected to take into account this overshadowing economic factor. But it explains why during certain periods immigration has been almost stationary, while at other periods the incoming of settlers for the field and farm has been a rushing one. As a natural balance, therefore, for the diversion of traffic to the Pacific coast through the agency of the artificial waterway, the Atlantic slope has the certainty of steadily growing exports of agricultural products.
As regards Argentina, the coming railways to the Pacific, of which I have made mention, mean that a quantity of the cereals, wool, and hides will find their outlet by these routes; and a larger volume of the exchange for them—farm tools, cottons and woollens, mineral oils, and miscellaneous merchandise—will obtain the cheaper and shorter transit through the Canal and down the West Coast. Thus, without damage to the Atlantic commerce, the Pacific coast traffic will form a larger proportion in the total of South American commerce than in the past. This is especially true with reference to the United States. The trade-wave north and south may be accounted one of the phenomena of international intercourse. It is not tidal, but a brief comparison shows its growing volume. In 1894 Argentina took from the United States goods to the value of $4,863,000, and sent in return products worth $3,497,000. In 1904 the exports were $10,751,000, and the imports $20,702,000, and in the following year they were increasing.
The commercial relation of the West Coast countries may better be exhibited by tabulation in the following form:
| Exports to United States[1] | Imports from United States | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1894 | 1904 | 1894 | 1904 | |
| Chile | $3,536,000 | $10,685,000 | $2,272,000 | $4,880,000 |
| Peru | 491,000 | 3,008,000 | 591,000 | 3,961,000 |
| Ecuador | 816,000 | 2,347,000 | 761,000 | 1,354,000 |
| Total | $4,843,000 | $16,040,000 | $3,624,000 | $10,195,000 |
| 1 See Foreign Commerce of the United States, Annual Review, 1904. | ||||
Here, within the extremes of the eleven years, is an increase in the foreign commerce between the West Coast countries named and the United States from $8,467,000 to $26,235,000 as measured by the annual volume. The growth continued in the subsequent twelvemonth. It is a forcible illustration of the north and south trade-wave movement. Under the further stimulus of the Canal for industrial development and commercial growth the contribution to traffic for the waterway will be not inconsiderable.
Swamp Section of the Canal—The Atlantic Entrance to the Canal—Scene on the Chagres River
An analysis of the West Coast foreign commerce for a given year shows it to have exceeded $211,000,000, with a rising tendency. The intercoast trade, which is included under the foreign head, may be placed at $11,000,000 to $12,000,000. There is left, therefore, approximately $200,000,000 of international traffic for Europe and the United States.