The great Principle of Population has been examined carefully and accepted as a splendid discovery by the master minds of all countries since the discoverer’s death in 1834. To say that it is looked upon as axiomatic by the two Mills, by Ricardo, Senior, Cairnes, Alexander Bain, Garnier, Bertillon, Fawcett, William Ellis, and William Hunter, is to say that its truth has been fully proved to the ablest thinkers on social science and on political economy that this and other European States have produced.
It was, before the days of Malthus, the almost universal belief of mankind that the wealth of a country was in proportion to its population. Statesmen, poets, and philanthropists were constant in their endeavour to secure as rapid a multiplication of the citizens as possible: and, up till the publication of his essay—indeed, long after that event, it was the custom in many European States for the Government to give prizes to such parents as had given birth to and reared a more than averagely large family of children. Such a law, indeed, was not abrogated until about 25 years ago in Sardinia.
Mr. Malthus clearly exposed the error of such teaching. He showed that, such is the immense power of increase in the human family, it is probable that, were food plentiful enough, population might double in some fifteen years, or even less. With incredible assiduity he read and examined ancient history and the statistics of European countries and their colonies, for the confirmation of his theory. He found, for example, that after the great pestilences which had from time to time ravaged European states, the surviving population had been so well fed and housed that it had been enabled to replace the blanks left by deaths usually in a very few years—in twenty years in several instances.
Turning to the colonies of Great Britain in the United States, Malthus confirmed what the great pioneer of all progress in political economy, Adam Smith, had noted, namely, that the colonists of those States had doubled since their settlement in considerably less than twenty-five years in some cases, without taking into account any fresh immigration. In an article in the Encyclopædia Britannica, written by Malthus, he gives most accurately the figures of the doubling of the population of the United States from the year 1790 until 1820; and shows, from statistics, that very few immigrants had arrived from Europe during this period. Making ample allowance for the contingent for such immigration, Malthus showed that, from 1790 to 1815, the population of the States had more than doubled. Hence he was led to the following expression:—“Population, when unchecked, goes on doubling every twenty-five years, or increases in a geometrical ratio.”
He next shows that the tendency of agricultural produce fit for the food of man is to increase very much more slowly than man could increase. This has been termed the “law of agricultural increase,” and is very easily understood by taking an example. Let us grant that the average quantity of wheat that can be grown at present on an acre of ground in England is thirty bushels. It would be clearly impossible to suppose that in 25 years 60 bushels per acre could be produced; in 50 years, 120 bushels, and so on. Whereas, the tendency of population to double in from 12 to 25 years is clear enough, when it is remembered that the human female commences to be capable of reproduction at about fifteen and continues so until forty-five, in this climate. Were European women to marry as early as the Hindoo women do, there would be a possibility, if food were forthcoming, of a doubling of the population in some fifteen years or less.
Mr. Malthus closely examined the statistics of European nations when he wrote in 1805. Before the commencement of this century, he found that the time taken for doubling of the populations of Europe was often as great as some five hundred years. This remark had been anticipated by Adam Smith, who had all the materials, had he sufficiently reflected on them, to have written accurately on the Population Question, since he also was acquainted with the rapid doubling of civilised peoples, when they had been conveyed to new and fertile colonies such as the United States. Here, then, was the conclusion of Malthus, which is perfectly obvious when it is clearly stated. Whenever population, in Europe or elsewhere, fails to double itself as rapidly as it does in new countries, it must be checked in some way or other. Proceeding a little further, he adds that it must either be checked by there being fewer births or a greater number of deaths. Whatever tends to produce a smaller number of births is included by Malthus among the preventive checks to population: whatever leads to a greater number of deaths, among the positive checks.
His travels through Europe were mainly directed towards the inquiry as to what kind of check was prevalent in each European state. In ancient times, he saw that the positive checks to population had everywhere extensively prevailed. Plagues and famines, with war and infanticide, had been the checks in Greece and Rome, as now in China and Hindostan. In the Europe of his day, all of these positive checks existed, in greatly diminished proportions, indeed, but still they were far from unknown. The extreme prevalence of celibacy, however, struck him in all the civilised states of Europe which he then visited. He noticed that, in many parts of the Continent, where the death-rate was lower than elsewhere, it was the custom for the women to marry very late in life. In one canton of Switzerland, where comfort and longevity were most notable, Malthus found, on enquiry, that it was the custom for the spinsters to delay their bridal day till long after the age of thirty. On the other hand, wherever marriages were early, and the birth-rate was high, he found on investigation that the death-rate was also above the average.
From this experience of his, he was led to the conclusion that early marriage, as a rule, was certain to lead to poverty and the positive checks to population; and, therefore, in his practical maxims for improving the condition of the poorer classes, he looked forward solely to the exercise of that celibacy, which he had found so often accompanied by long life and material comforts.
Had Mr. Malthus lived at this moment, he would have been aware of the remarkable fact, that the French peasantry of modern days have, simply from experience and without any theory, become acquainted with the results of his enquiries, that a rapid increase of births leads inevitably to poverty and early death. To quote from the most celebrated of French statists, M. Maurice Block, the artizans of towns, and peasant proprietors of whole districts of France, are accustomed to limit the size of their families to two children; and thus, although France is the most noted for its number of married couples of all European States, it is also the country in all Europe which is the least rapid in the increase of its population. The population check in France, then, Malthus, had he lived, would have found to be, not celibacy, but the voluntary limitation of families, in the midst of a married and most moral and domestic community. The great philanthropist, who was so distinguished for his charming temper and amiability, could not have failed, we may rest assured, to have, with J. S. Mill, Garnier, and Sismondi, given the preference to the modern French checks to population over all others.
In closing this chapter, we should like to refer to a few additional biographical circumstances of Malthus’ life. They have been supplied by Mr. Robert Porter, of Beeston, Notts., a gentleman well known as an admirer of the great discoverer, and as an expositor of his views. “The Reverend Henry Malthus,” Mr. Porter writes, in February, 1879, “the only son of Thomas Robert Malthus, lives at Effingham. The only daughter, Emily, was living at Bathwick Hill Villa, Bath, some time back. She married Captain Pringle. I have many letters from her, as also from her mother, who was living with her in 1862, in her 86th year, when she had a photograph taken from the family portrait, and sent to me with a scrap of his MS. handwriting. I send you this to see and peruse. I wrote to Mrs. Pringle about the memoir of her Father in his Political Economy, saying there was much of Mr. Daniel Malthus in it, but nothing about his mother, from whom I thought Mr. Malthus had received his best qualities. In letter 3 you will see the reply, and I think will be interested to read it. Dr. Anderson really discovered the Law of Rent, as you may see in Vol. 6 of The Bee, pp. 292–300.—1791.”