Readings in Money and Banking / Selected and Adapted

by Chester Arthur Phillips

I

Upon the outbreak of the European war, it was at once evident to all that very striking changes would result in every department of business life. There was, of course, at the outset no knowledge of the strategy or probable methods to be employed by any of the belligerents, and the general attitude of the business community was based upon the assumption that commerce would, for a time at least, become nearly impossible. As a corollary to that assumption, there prevailed the belief in many circles that American indebtedness to foreign countries would have to be liquidated in cash, and that this process would result in draining away from the United States a corresponding amount of gold. It was natural, therefore, that the first phenomenon of the war should be the suspension of dealings which it was believed would promote this gold movement, or would cause more serious trouble in any direction than would otherwise be inevitable. The closing of the principal stock exchanges of the country almost immediately upon the definite announcement that war was unavoidable was thus dictated by two considerations: (1) the belief that prices for stocks and other securities would be reduced to a point so low as to bring about the repurchase of the securities by Americans, who would then be obliged to pay for them in gold; (2) the belief that, in consequence of this reduction of prices, many bank loans based upon securities would have to be "called," thereby bringing about failures and incidentally assisting in the movement of specie out of the country.

In the case of the cotton exchanges, it was at once perceived that the cotton crop, which is so largely produced for export, could not now move abroad with any degree of facility, and that the demand for cotton would undoubtedly be slack. The very fact of the war, therefore, implied heavy reductions in the price of cotton, and the closing of the cotton exchanges was a measure of self-preservation on the part of the operators, who decided to protect themselves against the inevitable failures which would result from the fulfilment of existing contracts at very low prices. To close the exchanges would result in gaining time, and would, therefore, enable operators to meet their maturing obligations, besides perhaps affording an opportunity for actual recovery in cotton prices. This very fact, however, of the closing of the exchanges and the consequent removal of any other established method of determining prices for standard securities and for a staple like cotton involved most profound and far-reaching effects. The exchanges had closed in previous years, but never for the reasons which now controlled them. That they should close because of the fear of failure and the loss of gold implied a serious danger of disaster which appealed powerfully to the public mind, and which presented a problem that could not be explained away. The fact that, coincident with this closing of the exchanges, international trade was practically suspended for several days, and was seriously interrupted for several weeks, until British vessels assumed virtual control of the North Atlantic, tended greatly to increase the public anxiety. It formed, apparently, good ground for the suspension of business operations and for the non-fulfilment of contracts, even when the very difficult conditions did not themselves compel a recourse to such methods. The fact that foreign countries had adopted legislation deferring the date when debts need be paid or contracts fulfilled, although not paralleled here, produced a sympathetic influence upon business in the United States, which practically resulted in the partial or tentative adoption of a somewhat similar relaxation of commercial requirements in many industries and branches of trade.

It is notable that the Produce Exchange of New York and the other grain exchanges of the country continued in operation and did an enormous business in spite of the prevailing conditions. This was due to the fact that grain of all kinds, provisions, and every sort of food-stuff were, for the time being, subject to a very rapid upward movement. It was early perceived that a long continuance of the war would bring about a steady advance in the prices of all food products, the markets for which are not dependent upon temporary fluctuations for support, but are subject to far-reaching and semi-permanent influences. The fact that these exchanges continued open while those whose staples were subject to decline closed so speedily, naturally produced its own effect upon the public mind. Many who had thought the exchanges invariably faithful registers of price fluctuations were now reluctantly obliged to confess that this could not be the case, since those exchanges where prices were rising continued to operate without interruption, while those where prices were falling were obliged to suspend business. From one point of view, undoubtedly, the closing of the stock and cotton exchanges tended still further to deepen the attitude of dissatisfaction with these institutions that had been prevalent for some years among the American public. On the other hand, however, as time went on, it became clear that the exchanges of the country and the service they performed when in operation were being appreciated as never before by the conservative popular mind of the nation. With the exchanges closed it was seen that the lack of a regular and established market subject to natural conditions meant suffering and inability to secure the advantage of free competition in the establishment of the price of products. This view was once more emphasized when, later on, the cotton exchanges reopened; for it was then seen that the effect of trading upon the exchanges was to advance the price of the staple rather than to lower it, a view the precise reverse of that which had been originally prevalent for a long time past. Both in the psychological, as well as in the actual, effect of these closings, and in the influence the episode exerted upon public opinion, the suspension of the exchanges throughout the United States must be regarded as a fact of first-rate importance in the financial history of the United States during the European war.

II

Even without the suspension of certain classes of trading throughout the country, partially due as it was to the frenzied demand of European holders of American investments for money, the strain thrown upon our banks as a result of the great change in conditions would have been enormous. The closing of the exchanges, as already seen, had relieved matters to some extent by enabling the banks to avoid the calling of loans, and thereby to avoid the necessity of forcing customers into liquidation, with the resultant disastrous effect upon themselves. But on the other hand, the suspension of operations and the corresponding loss by the public would, it was felt, tend to the hoarding of legal-tender money. In order to meet this situation, the banks in many of the large financial centres sought to limit specie payments, taking out emergency currency and clearing-house certificates for the purpose of meeting their indebtedness to the public and to one another.... A phase of this phenomenon was seen in the tremendous rise in foreign exchange rates, the rates becoming practically prohibitive and thereby causing what amounted to a suspension of financial relationship between the United States and foreign countries, particularly Great Britain.

III

It was early understood that the real difficulty and danger in the international situation did not lie in the superficial symptoms of trouble, but were found much deeper, being directly due to the fact that international business had been practically suspended as the result of the war. This was a factor of prime and material importance in the whole situation, because the maintenance of established relations between the United States and foreign countries was directly dependent upon the regular exportation of goods. As was customary during the summer months, there had been large expenditures by American tourists in Europe; and we had become indebted to other countries, particularly Great Britain, for material sums in excess of what we were currently able to liquidate. This was on the assumption, as usual, that such indebtedness would be liquidated through the shipment of agricultural products, particularly of cotton, the country's principal cash crop. The breakdown of trade with Europe through the inability of vessels to run regularly at the outset of the war, and through the reduction of buying power, due to the interruption of all regular industrial, commercial, and financial operations, meant that in the absence of some restoration of the normal course of business it would be necessary to find other means of liquidating our obligations to foreign countries. The first phase of the difficulty was met by investigating the extent of international indebtedness, which, in the absence of other means of payment, would necessitate the draining-away of gold from the United States. Such an investigation was undertaken by the Federal Reserve Board, which, by sending out questions to the principal international bankers of the country, succeeded in forming a more or less trustworthy estimate of the indebtedness on current accounts, these being, of course, of varying maturities extending over several months. The problem thus raised was how to provide for liquidating the debts without losing so much of the underlying gold supply as to impair the convertibility of American securities, and therewith general confidence in American ability to meet obligations. The two chief proposals put forward for bridging over the period of difficulty were the establishment of a joint gold fund by the bankers of the country, and the undertaking of negotiations with Great Britain whereby some relaxation of foreign demands on the United States might be arranged for. These two phases of policy may best be cursorily sketched at this point.

Since the new banks had not yet been established and could not be put into operation for some weeks, it was deemed desirable to furnish a makeshift substitute for the co-operative effort which would have been available for the relief of the situation had the banks been in existence. It was therefore determined to suggest to a number of representative bankers the establishment of a joint gold fund to be used in providing exchange on Great Britain, and to have this joint fund developed at the earliest possible moment. A letter was consequently sent out to the presidents of clearing-house associations throughout the country, under date of September 21, in which request was made for subscriptions to a fund intended to aggregate about one hundred million dollars. This letter had previously been considered and approved at meetings of representative bankers summoned to meet in Washington on September 4 and 19 respectively, and was, therefore, issued with their moral support. The answer to this invitation was prompt and effective, a total of over one hundred and eight million dollars being subscribed and rendered available.

It was almost immediately evident that the operation of this fund was proving decidedly beneficial notwithstanding that only a comparatively small percentage of the amount subscribed was asked for, and that a still smaller percentage was actually used to furnish a basis for gold shipments. Nevertheless, it seemed, during the ten days immediately following the completion of the subscriptions, as if there might be need for still further relief to the situation. Some of those who were closely connected with the administration of the gold exchange fund brought the subject to the attention of the Secretary of the Treasury and he extended an invitation to the British Government to send representatives to this country mainly for the purpose of considering the possibility of further adjustment, in the event that the United States did not succeed in liquidating its indebtedness to Great Britain by the natural movement of commodities within a reasonably early period. The British Government designated Sir George Paish and Mr. B. P. Blackett, who came to the United States and on October 23 held a conference with the Federal Reserve Board. Subsequently another conference, attended by a number of representative bankers, was also held and the situation was discussed in very great detail. Meantime the establishment of a better understanding with reference to commodities to be considered as contraband and the more effective policing of the North Atlantic rendered possible the restoration of trade with European nations, and the development of the export trade proceeded with a speed which showed that current obligations of the United States to Great Britain and other countries would be liquidated at an early date without any necessity for further interference. By the time the reserve banks were ready to open [November 16], exchange sales on London had fallen to normal, and there was, therefore, no danger that when opened the reserve banks might, as was for a time feared by some, find their gold rapidly drawn away from them in order to meet the requirements of the gold export movement.