“Nevertheless,” he said, “I am convinced of the fact.”

“But he has no brains. Look at him. Observe him.”

“Miss Lee, it takes a man of tremendous resolution and of very keen intelligence to invent for himself a character such as he has exhibited to Gibeon for years.... If the world supposes you are a nincompoop—a vain figurehead—a puppet set up by other men—you are little in danger of arousing suspicion as to yourself. When a man is commonly admitted to be a fool, he is safe. Fownes has been at infinite pains to prove himself a fool.”

Carmel was far from dull. Her mind flashed to the keystone of the arch Pell was constructing. “Show me he is on the verge of bankruptcy and maybe you can convince me of the rest.”

He told her. He itemized the contracts Fownes had made for the purchase of lumber, and the prices at the time of sale. He showed how the market had declined, and the total sum of Fownes’s losses. “These,” he said, “are facts—not public, but easy to come by.... I first found the trail of them when the cashier of the bank asked me to assist him in an audit of the books. That was some months ago when I occupied my official position.”

“But if you are right, then Abner Fownes is a murderer, or an instigator of murder.... Nobody can look at him and credit that.”

“Abner Fownes,” said Pell, “is capable of any crime to preserve Abner Fownes. I have watched him, studied him. I know.”

“I can’t believe.... It is incredible. No. You must be mistaken.”

“Miss Lee,” said Pell, solemnly, “if you wish to continue to exist, if you hope to come through this affair with your bare life, you must believe. If you cannot believe, pretend it is a fact and act accordingly. Forget everything else and concentrate upon Abner Fownes.... But take this warning: The moment he suspects you suspect him—you will doubtless join Sheriff Churchill.... I believe Churchill was on the road to the discovery. He would not have disappeared otherwise.”

Carmel remained silent, considering. At length she spoke. “You are right,” she said. “One does not insure his house because he believes it will burn, but in case it shall burn. I shall make believe you are right about Abner Fownes—as an insurance policy.... But where does that lead us?”