Say and I would say that by turning revenue into capital we shall obtain both an increased supply and an increased demand; but, if the same capital be so created, I do not approve of its present application, and taking it out of the hands of those who know best how to employ it, to encourage industry of a different kind and under the superintendence of those who know nothing of the wants and demands of mankind, and blindly produce cloth or stockings of which we have already too much, or improve roads which nobody wishes to travel....
Very truly yours,
David Ricardo.
LIV.
My dear Sir,
I am not in the least acquainted with the subject on which your papers[148] treat, but that is no reason why I should not mention what appears to me defective. In page 8[149] you add 1/6 to the births for probable omissions, and 1/12 for deaths; but you do not tell your reader why these proportions are taken rather than 1/4 or 1/3, nor can I discover on what grounds those numbers are chosen.
You sometimes take averages from the known facts of certain years; but your averages are formed on an arithmetical ratio while your application is to a geometrical series. I submit whether this is correct.
If, as you say in page 14[150], births are to burials as 47 to 30, and the mortality as 1 to 47, the addition to the population would be little more than 1/82 instead of 1/83, for out of every 1410 persons 30 would die and 47 would be born, and consequently there would be an increase of 17; but 1410 divided by 17 is 82.94, or 83 nearly; and therefore, if 1410 gives an increase of 17, 9,287,000 will give an increase of 111,970, or 1,119,700 in ten years, which will raise the population 9,287,000 + 1,119,700 = 10,406,700 instead of 10,483,000[151].
In page 16[152] the mortality is supposed to be as before, 1 in 47, and the births to the population as 1 to 29½, and the population to be 9,287,000. This latter sum divided by 29½ gives 314,813 the annual number of births, and divided by 47 gives 197,595 the annual number of deaths; deduct one from the other (197,595 from 314,813) gives 117,218 for the annual increase, which in ten years would be 1,172,180, which added to the former population of 9,287,000 gives 10,459,180 instead of 10,531,000.
I have marked in pages 35 and 36 some very trifling errors. These are all I can discover with the facts which are before me.
Ever truly yours,
David Ricardo.