The extraterrestrial conclusion depends even more strongly on the second assumption, that the UFOs were material objects. Nearly every part of the description is in direct conflict with this idea. The instantaneous reversal of course, for example, if performed by solid objects, should have produced a shock wave that would have broken windows in Norfolk, Newport News, and points west. Only one observation even suggests that the unknowns had a material nature: when the disks flipped on edge they seemed to reveal bottom surfaces, which would indicate a solid body. The witnesses specifically qualified this statement, however, by adding that though they had the impression that the bottom surfaces were unlighted, the “bottoms” were not clearly visible. Thus the three-dimensional structure was not actually observed, but only inferred. The night was dark, the UFOs were glowing like hot coals, and were supposedly more than a mile away. Even if the disks had been solid objects, an observer could actually have seen only a circular-shaped light that suddenly narrowed to a very thin ellipse; if he believed the object to be solid, he might infer the presence of other surfaces, but a side edge 15 feet thick and an unlighted bottom surface, even if they had existed, would not have been detectable.
Of the other observations, all are inconsistent with the theory that the UFOs were material in nature. All, however, are completely consistent with the theory that the disks were immaterial images made of light.
Images made of light can glow with brilliant colors, can show well-defined circular shapes, and can flip on edge. Since they are not subject to the forces of gravity and inertia, they can travel at incredible speed, change direction sharply and instantaneously, and perform all of the maneuvers ascribed to the UFOs. On this new assumption, the observations become credible and the major part of the mystery vanishes.
Only one problem remains. Just exactly what produced the images? Of the many possible explanations, we first considered the simplest, an astronomical source. The UFOs appeared low in the western sky at 8:12 P.M. E.S.T., about forty-five minutes after sunset. The night was dark, for the moon had just entered its last quarter and did not rise until much later. Apparently the only planet that could have been involved was Mercury. Setting a little more than an hour after the sun, it should have been visible above the western horizon at the time of the sighting, but since it was not particularly brilliant, having a magnitude of a little more than +0.6, we put aside the astronomical theory, for the moment, as improbable.
We next explored the possibility of multiple reflections in the glass windows of the cockpit, produced by a light source inside the plane (such as a cigarette), or in the air outside (such as the bright-red exhaust trail of one of the jets in the area). Like the astronomical theory, this idea was set aside as improbable. Learning to distinguish between a reflection and a real light seen through a cockpit window is part of every pilot’s training. When he sees a strange light, he automatically makes the proper checks. Furthermore, Nash and Fortenberry had observed the disks through three separate windows having different orientations.
Accepting the overwhelming probability that the source of the UFOs was outside and below the aircraft, we concluded that it was almost certainly on the ground. The densely populated coastal region near Newport News and Norfolk, with several airfields and military installations, included countless possible sources such as a searchlight, an illuminated advertising sign, an air beacon. Stratified clouds or inversion layers of temperature and/or humidity could have multiplied such a light into a series of glowing disks (see [Figure 19]).
Figure 19. Searchlight shining on clouds. A, Through slightly foggy or dusty atmosphere, light cone plainly visible; B, through multiple thin cloud layers and foggy or dusty atmosphere; C, on cloud layer through clear atmosphere, no light cone visible; D, on multiple thin cloud layers, no light cone visible.
The soundness of this theory depended on the prevailing weather conditions. According to the reports, on the night of July 14 roughly a third of the sky at 20,000 feet was covered with thin cirrus clouds, practically invisible; at lower altitudes the night was cloudless and sharply clear, there was no apparent haze, visibility was unlimited, and no temperature inversion existed. Under such conditions the suggested mechanism would obviously not operate.
A more detailed survey of the weather conditions, however, quickly showed that this picture was greatly oversimplified. At 8:12, the time of the sighting, the night had already become quite dark. Yet the sun had set only forty-five minutes earlier and, according to the almanac, twilight should not have ended until 9:01 local time. Thus there must have been a dense cloud bank low in the west. Also, according to Captain Nash, there was probably some unstable air, which in itself indicates inequalities of temperature and/or humidity.