Rochecotte, November 4, 1840.—A letter which I have just received from M. Molé contains the following: "The outgoing Ministry was ruining everything, and in three months would have involved us in war with the whole of Europe, and given us a revolutionary Government into the bargain. I do not know what the new Ministry will do, but it cannot do worse, or even as badly. The method of its formation has obliged me to stand aloof—an easy part to play, and one which I usually prefer, the more so as when I do take part I never do so by halves."
Rochecotte, November 5, 1840.—My son, M. de Dino, writes from Paris that great preparations are being made to decorate the route by which the procession will pass bringing back the remains of Napoleon from St. Helena, and that a strange idea has been proposed, to have a row of the effigies of all the Kings of France. I suppose they will be placed there to present arms to the usurper. Really, people are absurd nowadays; in any case, this fine idea emanates from the Cabinet of M. Thiers, and not from the present Ministry.
A letter from Madame Mollien says: "Yesterday evening, in the middle of the theatre, Bergeron, the foremost of all the King's assassins, entered a box, where was seated M. Emile de Girardin, the editor of La Presse, to whom, without saying a word, he gave a box on the ears. M. Girardin bounded up like a madman; his wife, who is twice as big and strong as he is, caught him by his collar, shouting, 'Don't go out! You shall not go out! He is an assassin!' The result is said to have been an incredible scene; everybody intervened, all were in a quarrelsome state of mind, and in the corridors and vestibule nothing could be heard except challenges and appointments."
Here is an extract from another letter in a different strain: "M. Guizot and Madame de Lieven are the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, and I have a fear that M. de Broglie must be content with the fate of the Sultan's wife, Validé. M. Molé has not been offered a position; the King continually repeats that M. Molé declined to lend a hand; this is not the case. At so serious a crisis no thinking man would use such language, but the matter is most easily explained in this way. The Journal des Débats has since been carefully working upon the scruples of M. Molé, and said to him: 'If you refuse to support the Cabinet, which is Conservative, the Left will come into power, and it will be your fault. It is a crime against the country,' &c. This attitude seems to resemble the case of parents who, when they have a son dangerously ill, say to a girl, 'If you do not grant him an interview he will die, and it will be your fault.' If I were a girl I assure you that in this case I should look after myself. My opinion is that M. Molé should remain a member of the Academy and nothing more. Moreover, he will be none the worse off for that. Do you know that Maurice de Noailles is to become a priest? It is said that Barante will be Ambassador at London. I hope so."
My son-in-law hears that Maurice de Noailles is entering the Church in despair, because he could not marry the daughter of the Duc de Noailles. I admit that I do not believe this story as yet, and await some confirmation of it.
Rochecotte, November 6, 1840.—Yesterday's post brought me a long letter from M. de Salvandy: "We are emerging from a Ministerial crisis, which has passed off with little incident, except that M. Molé has remained outside the new combination. He feels, with much exasperation, that some supreme influence has secured his exclusion. At the outset of the crisis M. de Montalivet worked very hard to find a post for M. Molé in the new Cabinet: he went about everywhere, and declared on all sides that his co-operation was indispensable, to M. Molé more emphatically than to any one. I could not help saying to M. Molé that so much zeal seemed suspicious, and that I could not but infer some bad result. However, M. Molé's chances of office never amounted to anything, nor has he been treated with any of that ceremony, which might outwardly have soothed his feelings; in fact, practically no notice has been taken of any member of the Ministry of April 15. Only upon the last day were they considered in the least. The new body was brought together with such little thought that no effort was made to secure M. Passy, who was ready to come in unconditionally, but was united with M. Dufaure; the latter based his refusal upon a personal dislike for M. Martin du Nord rather than upon political motives. M. Passy and M. Dufaure had no objection to myself or to M. Laplagne. Thus it would have been possible with no great difficulty to gather round Marshal Soult and M. Guizot some members of the Ministries of April 15 and May 12. These would have formed a good nucleus for a majority, at once compact and permanent. Instead of this, a Ministry has been lumped together, and it is expected that the dangers evoked by M. Thiers will provide votes at first, while the future can take care of itself. When the Cabinet, however, was formed, it was remembered that no measures had been taken to secure the adherence of the Left Centre, or even of the Conservative party. Then they took steps to repair this mistake, and the Ministers all came to me. M. Guizot, whom I had not seen since the Coalition, came wearing his order, to ask me solemnly for my co-operation. I did not hide the fact that it was rather late, and that this fashion of forming a Ministry without paying attention to any one, or respecting M. Molé and his party by the observance of outward formality, increased the difficulty of a situation, which was already complicated enough. When I heard M. Guizot I remembered what I was saying to the Duc d'Orléans a few days ago, that of the two rivals it was difficult to say which is the more futile; that if Thiers is futile without, Guizot is so within; in fact, Guizot has not a notion of the domestic dangers, the Parliamentary difficulties, and the general peril caused by the abstention of M. Passy and M. Dufaure; for they, added to Lamartine and myself, would form a possible Cabinet intermediate between that of to-day and that of M. Odilon Barrot, whether we took M. Molé, M. de Broglie, or even M. Thiers for our leader. In short, their confidence and presumption have been inexplicable, while they have completely forgotten the apostasy of 1839, which is aggravated by this fresh change of creed and colour. They are convinced that their theories can be resumed at the point where they had dropped them, and talk of safeguards, order, and resistance with the same authority. They have no notion of the fury which this language is likely to arouse among their adversaries, and regard us as cold and disagreeable. However, we shall support them, for we are men of honour before all things, and I am equally certain that there will be a majority on the general question. Thiers has brought things to such a point that his restoration would mean both revolution and war; but the humiliation abroad which Guizot's Cabinet will have to confront is likely to be a crushing burden. Honourable men do not pardon Thiers for making this humiliation inevitable, and in three months no one will pardon Guizot for yielding to it. In my opinion he will have to give way in a short time, but if he performs the double service of bringing us through a great difficulty without increasing it and of paving the way for a new Conservative majority he will have done a good deal. I do not despair, and for my part will certainly help him. He left me and went on to open conciliatory measures with M. Molé.
"The immediate cause of Thiers' rupture with the King is as follows: In the speech Thiers demanded further measures, that is, an additional hundred and fifty thousand men—making six hundred and fifty thousand in all, the mobilisation of the National Guards, camps upon the Rhine and the Alps, in short, war. The King tried to compromise by saying that his Ministers would explain what they had done and what they intended to do. Thiers refused; it seems as though there was no sincerity on either side. Thiers felt that his position was untenable: the Left was trembling, the Conservatives would venture anything in their fright, and his own foolishness will not bear discussion. The King on his side was bold enough to regard his attempted assassination by Darmès as a possible starting-point from which to turn the struggle against himself and overthrow his Cardinal de Retz, while he ran no risk for his power, but a very great deal of risk for his life.
"The Conservative party thus seems to be reorganised by the return of the large majority of the Doctrinaires and the probable support of the Left Centres, who are in terror, but the Doctrinaire party is divided; M. Duvergier de Hauranne and M. Piscatory follow M. de Rémusat and M. Jaubert from the Left; M. Broglie is divided between the two camps; M. Thiers continues to rely upon him, and flatters himself that he has been strongly defended by him in the Chamber of Peers; M. Guizot, on the other hand, calculates that he will accept the London Embassy; to this he attaches great importance, although M. de Broglie will not be able to lend him all the strength of which he will deprive M. Thiers by a long way; however, he will not weaken him, and that is something. Failing M. Thiers, Madames de Barante and de Sainte-Aulaire will fight for London. There is no doubt that M. de la Redorte will be retired, as he has cut a poor figure in the Peninsula. There will be many changes in the Diplomatic Body. I know that I have been thought of for an embassy, but I have not yet considered my reply. M. Guizot has gained nothing from London; something may be obtained from Lord Melbourne, but nothing from Lord Palmerston, and it is not certain that Europe is less inclined to the latter than to the former. The condition of the Comte de Paris still causes alarm. Chomel, to whom I have spoken, but he is rather a pessimist, has no hope except that the poor young Prince may live long enough to spare the Duchesse d'Orléans a great grief during her confinement."
Rochecotte, November 8, 1840.—M. d'Entraigues, our Prefect, who has been here since the evening of the day before yesterday, received yesterday by a courier a telegram sent to him at Tours with news of the nomination of the President, the Vice-President and the Committee of the Chamber of Deputies. The nominations in general are, thank heaven, favourable to the Cabinet and supported by a good majority. This beginning is a trifle consoling. If fear inspires wisdom, so much the better.
I have a letter from the Duc de Noailles, who tells me that there is no truth in the rumour that his cousin M. Maurice is to enter the Church. People are indeed wonderfully clever in inventing and spreading stories and providing them with so many details as to make one believe what is utterly unfounded. The Duc de Noailles also says: "The royal session is said to have been a most mournful ceremony;[ [138] on the one side was much outcry of obvious meaning, while on the Left there was menacing silence; in the middle was the King shedding tears at a certain passage in his speech. The speech was wanting in dignity, and a pacific attitude should be more dignified; it was drawn up by Guizot. The desire for peace was too obvious, and it was not a success. The Ministry are sure of a majority for some time, but as the fear of war dies away they will lose it. Syria has been given up as a bad job by the Government. If the Pasha submits, all will be over; if he resists and is attacked in Egypt it is difficult to say how an explosion will be avoided here. Thiers said to Guizot on his arrival: 'Now it is your turn. There are only two men in France, yourself and I; I am the Minister of the revolution, you of the Conservative movement; if one is not in power the other must be. We cannot act in concert, but we can live upon good terms. I shall put no obstacle in your way, and make no attempt to inconvenience you.' None the less he is already intriguing in the Chamber, and an agitation will be raised to support him."