Rochecotte, October 12, 1840.—A letter from M. de Barante at St. Petersburg tells me: "I am waiting for news from elsewhere, for at St. Petersburg nothing is decided, nor in reality do people greatly care. Peace would be perhaps the wiser course, but war is more in conformity with the sentiments which people have been professing for ten years; so they will only do what England wishes. You can make your conjectures in accordance with this view; you know Lord Palmerston and all his political environment, of which I have no idea."
Rochecotte, October 14, 1840.—Madame de Montmorency writes to say that M. Demidoff has written to M. Thiers for authorisation to announce his wife at Paris as Her Royal Highness Madame the Princesse de Montfort. Madame Demidoff has written personally to Madame Thiers, whom she knew in Italy, on this subject, and the King has given his consent.
Rochecotte, October 17, 1840.—The Duchesse d'Albuféra writes: "Peace now seems to be a trifle nearer. Negotiations have been resumed, and people are agreed in saying that if war is to break out it will not be for a considerable time, and that many diplomatic notes will be exchanged before we reach that extremity. General de Cubières, Minister of War, had resigned because he thought the majority in the Council too warlike, and his opinion was that we should be unable to wage a successful war with the Powers and must avoid the possibility. His resignation, however, has not been accepted, as the negotiations and prospects of peace have been resumed, at any rate for the moment. The French memorandum has brought many over to the side of M. Thiers. The vacant Presidency of the Chamber is a post which occupies many minds; opinions are divided between M. Odilon Barrot and M. Sauzet. The Comte de Paris has fallen ill again, and his parents are very uneasy."
Rochecotte, October 19, 1840.—Madame de Lieven writes: "The English Cabinet has welcomed the French note. The peace party is gaining strength, but the issue does not lie in that direction. St. Petersburg, which is a long way off, must be consulted, and during these delays the newspapers are able to interfere. The memorandum of Thiers has caused much satisfaction at Paris, and some embarrassment to Lord Palmerston; at St. Petersburg it will be thought that he says aloud what has hitherto been whispered. As for Austria, Apponyi claims that the narrative is inaccurate where Austria is concerned. In any case, the decision is imminent, and will be known on November 15. The four Powers care nothing about the war or about France; so we may ask in what direction or for what reason France will take action. Unfortunately there is a general idea that peace and M. Thiers are incompatible. This would be quite dangerous, for excitement is high, and Thiers in the scales can outweigh war."
Rochecotte, October 20, 1840.—The newspapers contain an account of a fresh attempt to assassinate the King, made by a certain Darmès.[ [133] The constant repetition of these attempts makes one tremble, and it is impossible to avoid uneasiness.
Yesterday my son-in-law received letters from Paris which say that the wind seems to blow in the direction of war. Lord Palmerston is stated to be anxious to insist upon the full enforcement of the treaty. Our Minister thinks himself certain of a majority, rather because of the apprehension with which his opponents would view their own accession to power in the present situation, than of any confidence inspired by the Cabinet. After the attempted assassination by Darmès the Duc d'Orléans is said to have declared that he was strongly in favour of war, and would rather be killed on the banks of the Rhine than murdered in a Paris slum. All our letters agree that excitement is running high and that conditions are both complicated and serious.
Rochecotte, October 21, 1840.—Yesterday the papers announced the abdication of Queen Christina. This event will not form an agreeable page in the annals of M. de La Redorte's Spanish embassy.
The Duc de Noailles writes as follows: "Many people are saying that Thiers will resign, and many say that he is in a difficulty upon the subject. He does not see how he can appear before the Chambers. He would like to arrange a retreat which would leave him at the head of a party, by making people believe that he was unable to persuade the King to take the energetic resolutions which the national honour requires. On the other hand, thus to be eclipsed, to leave every one in difficulty, after raising and provoking all these questions, to evade discussion and responsibility before the Chambers, would certainly be disgraceful. However, people who are best informed think that he will resign. The speech from the throne is now the only point upon which he can disagree and request permission to retire.
"Prussia definitely refuses to let any horses go out of its territory. It is hoped that some will be found in Normandy and Holland. The situation is extremely embarrassing, for we are certainly not ready for war, and cannot be before spring, and yet loans have already been effected to the amount of four hundred and fifty millions. The deficit will be a bottomless pit. If stocks fall to ninety-nine, when by law sixteen millions a month must be redeemed, and if money is taken from the savings banks, the Treasury will be in a hopeless difficulty. The Syrian expedition seems to have no immediate result; Ibrahim allows the allies to seize the seaboard, which is separated from the rest of the country by a chain of mountains which runs along the sea, and which the disembarked troops cannot cross. He holds all this country, which is overawed by his army and dare not revolt, and is waiting for the storms to drive away the fleet, which cannot then return before spring. I have seen a letter from Lady Palmerston, strongly inclined to peace. Guizot also writes that Downing Street is now calmer.
"The King is very depressed by this further attempt to assassinate him, and Thiers feels that the credit of the Ministry is not improved by the event. The Deputies who are already here and those who are arriving are said to be inclined for peace. I hear that the Chamber of Peers is tempted, if it has the courage—which I doubt—to adopt a patronising and embarrassing attitude towards the Ministry."