The "Coalition Administration" was now beginning to "loom" dimly in the distance. Various changes were whispered, and from day to day new reports got abroad of negotiations with Lord North's party. The first step towards the consummation of an alliance may be said to have been already taken when Townshend, abandoning the traditions of his party, told Mr. Grenville that he saw no reason for proscribing all Lord North's people from office, although he objected to giving them any share in the Government. The meaning of this ingenious distinction is clear. The Administration was tottering, and the only chance they saw of strengthening their position was to buy off the opposition of the followers of the late Cabinet. To swamp their opponents and at the same time keep the actual power in their own hands, was a piece of strategy which might be expected from the general character of Lord Shelburne's tactics. But it failed, and failed conspicuously. Mr. Grenville discerned clearly the danger of this clever plan, from which he could anticipate no other result than that of sapping the foundations of the existing Government. In the letters that follow we have a close running commentary on the state of parties, and the rumours that hourly agitated the public mind during this interval of intestine struggle. Mr. Grenville considered the circumstances of the Ministry hopeless, as, we gather from his previous communications, he appears to have done all throughout. Their conduct upon the Irish Bill, which was still destined to entail division and uneasiness, revealed to him the fatal want of unity, earnestness and activity in their councils; and even if they had had no perils to guard against from without, he saw sources of weakness enough within the Cabinet itself to destroy all confidence in their stability. There were only two parties from whose ranks the Ministry could be recruited, and these two had hitherto acted in public life with the fiercest animosity towards each other. The attempts that were made to win over some of Lord North's adherents having failed, the only alternative left was to apply to Fox. That this application was actually made, and made in person by Pitt, who, with a thorough knowledge of the character of Fox, believed that the most direct mode of ascertaining his sentiments was not only the most honourable to both, but the most likely to attain its end, either by a candid refusal or immediate acceptance, is here authoritatively stated by Mr. Grenville. Fox's answer is conclusive as to the real obstacle which impeded all negotiation. While Lord Shelburne was in office nothing could be done: no party would consent to coalesce with him. The humiliating condition to which he had lowered the Administration, is shown in the straits to which it was now reduced—seeking support alternately from opposite parties, and finding its offers rejected in turn by both.
MR. W. W. GRENVILLE TO LORD TEMPLE.
Pall Mall, Feb. 6th, 1783.
My dear Brother,
Townshend's messenger is nowhere, waiting for this letter; and as, by a mistake, I was not till now informed of his going to-night, I have only time to write a few lines, just to acknowledge the receipt of your letter of the 2nd instant, and to say a very little upon the singular situation of things here.
To-day, when I delivered your despatches to Townshend, I entered into a conversation with him on this subject, saying that you trusted to him for information, &c., &c. He perfectly agreed with me in thinking that it could not go on without some new arrangement of some sort or other. At the same time, he said that he knew of no negotiation going on with Lord North. That there was no truth in the reports which have circulated so much that Jenkinson was to be Chancellor of the Exchequer, Pitt Secretary, and himself Paymaster. That he had good reason to believe that there had been a negotiation between Lord North and Fox, but that it was now off. That, for his own part, he saw no reason for proscribing all Lord North's people from office, but he should not like to see them in Government.
Upon this text it is not very easy to reason. The prevailing idea certainly is that Lord Shelburne is making overtures to Lord North. Whether those are to go to Cabinet arrangement, or only to provision for Lord North's family and offices of emolument, &c., for George North, &c., &c., I do not know; if the former, it is clear that he keeps it from the knowledge both of Townshend and Pitt; the latter, I have very good reason to believe, would object to it.
In the meantime a storm is brewing, and will probably burst when the preliminaries come to be considered, unless some event takes place before that time. Lord Keppel and the Duke of Richmond both assign the badness of the peace for their reason for resigning. Lord Carlisle does the same, but I understand his great objection goes to the Loyalists, to whom he considered his personal honour engaged. The report of the day is, that the Duke of Grafton has followed their example. Of this Townshend said not one word to me, nor did I hear it till after I had seen him. This rather makes me disinclined to believe it, though his Grace has certainly had a kind of flirtation with Fox for some days past.
Upon the whole, the only thing which I can at all venture to pronounce with certainty, is that it cannot do as it is; and that if Fox's people continue, as I believe they will, to stand aloof, they must either all resign, or fill up the vacancies as fast as they occur, day after day, with Lord North's people. En quo discordia cives prodaxit miseros.
In the case of an immediate resignation, Lord North's people will come in by storm (Fox not having the least chance): in that of gradual admission, they will sap the Government by degrees. In either case, there is too much reason to fear the return of the old system of corruption on one side, and faction on the other.