2. In many cases, perhaps in most, a second crop can be started with little initial expense.
3. There is much land of no value for any other purpose.
4. Even if the owner does not care to hold his land long enough for another crop, or if he is prevented from doing so at some future time by excessive taxation or other prohibition, its disposal value will be greater if it bears young forest growth than if it does not.
5. Stumpage values are certain to advance greatly and their advance will be governed largely by these factors:
a. Speculative influence necessarily accompanying the lessening of the nation's and the world's timber supply.
b. The carrying charges of fire prevention and taxation imposed by the community upon virgin timber, which, since they represent an investment which must be recouped, will either be added in the long run to the price of stumpage exactly in the measure of their severity and so transferred to the consumer, or result in rapid cutting and consequently raise the speculative value of that which escapes cutting. (This the consumer will pay also.)
c. The quantity of new timber grown.
6. It is probable that future demand for timber will reimburse the cost of growing it, be this cost high or low within reasonable limits.
7. This does not mean, however, that the timberland owner will or can generally engage in the business when the cost is excessive. While he could probably make a good profit eventually, such an investment is too heavy and prolonged to be inviting; besides there is the possibility of entire loss by fire. He will naturally compare it with other investments having less disadvantages. For example, since conditions which discourage the growing of new competing forests tend for this very reason to enhance the value of existing forests, he might invest further in the latter instead, with equal ultimate profit and with easier access to his money at any time.
8. Consequently the growing of timber is promising to the private owner only when the investment can be borne easily. Since it has three forms—land value, fire protection, and taxation—all must be moderate or, if one or more is high, the rest must be low.