Next to the glory of having been the means of bringing about the publication of Newton's Principia, the greatest achievement of Halley, the second Astronomer Royal, was that he was the first to predict the return of a comet. Newton had shown that comets were no lawless wanderers, but were as obedient to gravitation as were the planets themselves, and he also showed how the orbit of a comet could be determined from observations on three different dates. Following these principles, Halley computed the orbits of no fewer than twenty-four comets, and found that three of them, visible at intervals of about seventy-five years, pursued practically the same path. He concluded, therefore, that these were really different appearances of the same object, and, searching old records, he found reason to believe that it had been observed frequently earlier still. It seems, in fact, to have been the comet which is recorded to have been seen in 1066 in England at the time of the Norman invasion; in A.D. 66, shortly before the commencement of that war which ended in the destruction of Jerusalem by Titus; and earlier still, so far back as B.C. 12. Halley, however, experienced a difficulty in his investigation. The period of the comet's revolution was not always the same. This, he concluded, must be due to the attraction of the planets near which the comet might chance to travel. In the summer of 1681 it had passed very close to Jupiter, for instance, and in consequence he expected that instead of returning in August 1757, seventy-five years after its last appearance, it would not return until the end of 1758 or the beginning of 1759. It has returned twice since Halley's day, a triumphant verification of the law of gravitation; and we are looking for it now for a third return some ten years hence, in 1910.
Halley's comet, therefore, is an integral member of our solar system, as much so as the earth or Neptune, though it is utterly unlike them in appearance and constitution, and though its path is so utterly unlike theirs that it approaches the sun nearer than our earth, and recedes farther than Neptune. But there are other comets, which are not permanent members of our system, but only passing visitors. From the unfathomed depths of space they come, to those depths they go. They obey the law of gravitation so far as our sight can follow them, but what happens to them beyond? Do they come under some other law, or, perchance, in outermost space is there still a region reserved to primeval Chaos, the 'Anarch old,' where no law at all prevails? Gravitation is the bond of the solar system; is it also the bond of the Universe?
CHAPTER IX
THE MAGNETIC AND METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENTS
Passing out of the south door of the new altazimuth building, we come to a white cruciform erection, constructed entirely of wood. This is the Magnet House or Magnetic Observatory, the home of a double Department, the Magnetic and Meteorological.
This department does not, indeed, lie within the original purpose of the Observatory as that was defined in the warrant given to Flamsteed, and yet is so intimately connected with it, through its bearing on navigation, that there can be no question as to its suitability at Greenwich. Indeed, its creation is a striking example of the thorough grasp which Airy had upon the essential principles which should govern the great national observatory of an essentially naval race, and of the keen insight with which he watched the new development of science. The Magnetic Observatory, therefore, the purpose of which was to deal with the observation of the changes in the force and direction of the earth's magnetism—an inquiry which the greater delicacy of modern compasses, and, in more recent times, the use of iron instead of wood in the construction of ships has rendered imperative—was suggested by Airy on the first possible occasion after he entered on his office, and was sanctioned in 1837. The Meteorological Department has a double bearing on the purpose of the Observatory. On the one side, a knowledge of the temperature and pressure of the atmosphere is, as we have already seen, necessary in order to correct astronomical observations for the effect of refraction. On the other hand, meteorology proper, the study of the movements of the atmosphere, the elucidation of the laws which regulate those movements, leading to accurate forecasts of storms, are of the very first necessity for the safety of our shipping. It is true that weather forecasts are not issued from Greenwich Observatory, any more than the Nautical Almanac is now issued from it; but just as the Observatory furnishes the astronomical data upon which the Almanac is based, so also it takes its part in furnishing observations to be used by the Meteorological Office at Westminster for its daily predictions.
Those predictions are often made the subject of much cheap ridicule; but, however far short they may fall of the exact and accurate predictions which we would like to have, yet they mark an enormous advance upon the weather-lore of our immediate forefathers.
'He that is weather wise
Is seldom other wise,'