This was the substance of the letter. It will not be sent without the concurrence of the Cabinet, which will be summoned the moment Peel comes to town, and he is hourly expected.
I think this letter prudent, inasmuch as whatever may happen it will place us in the right; but I do not expect that France will do anything against the rebels, or sanction the doing of anything.
The Duke considers, as indeed is clear enough, that it is idle to expect the future submission of Belgium to the King of the Netherlands. It may be possible to place it under a Prince of the House of Nassau. I do not think the Duke sees his way; but he expects war.
October 2.
Cabinet. Aberdeen's letter to Lord Stuart. It is founded upon the Duke's memorandum, but much extended à l'Indienne. I think none approved of it but Lord Bathurst. I objected to the statement that the treaty of 1815 imposed upon us obligations. It may give us rights, but it imposes no obligation. Then the principle of non-interference is advanced as just and wise, but there are peculiar circumstances attending the position of the Netherlands which make a difference.
There is an assertion that the troubles in Belgium have been fomented by French agency, although not assisted by the Government, and a direct reference is made to the Barrier Treaties. France is requested to concert with us and the Allies to suppress the anarchy which exists in the Low Countries. She is at the same time reminded that in no case can the Allies consent to renounce the security given to them by the Treaty of Paris in consequence of an insurrection amongst the lower orders at Brussels. Of this a great deal will be left out. Peel seemed to be rather averse to the whole tenor of the letter, which looks like an invitation to put down the insurrection by force. He sketched in a few words a letter which would be innocuous.
The Duke's object is to make an effort to induce France to act with us to settle the Belgian affairs amicably. They cannot be settled without France, without a war. But is there any hope that the French Government will venture to give us her appui? If they be self-denying enough to renounce the hopes of annexing Belgium to France, their fears of the Jacobins will not allow them to do so. My expectation is that they will say they neither have interfered nor will interfere to dissolve the union between Holland and Belgium. That they will not interfere in the internal concerns of other States.
Some think they will go farther and declare they will not allow other Powers to do so. I do not expect this.
Every word of this letter must be well weighed, for every discontented man in England and in France will criticise its words and its spirit. There is no writer more unsafe than Aberdeen.
Rosslyn did not seem to like the letter at all, but he said little. I whispered to Peel that I wished he would bring a letter to-morrow. Short. It was at last agreed alterations should be made, and we are to meet at one to-morrow.