I may here remark that while the imports of Indian Teas have, since 1877, increased by 23 million pounds, the imports of China Teas have increased by 4 million pounds only in the same time.
The deliveries and stocks were as follows for 1881 and 1882 in millions of pounds:—
| 1881. | 1882. | |
|---|---|---|
| Deliveries | 48¾ | 50½ |
| Stocks on 31st December | 18½ | 21¾ |
During the last 3 months of 1882 the deliveries averaged 5 million pounds per month. In January, 1883, they were 5½ millions, and in February (I write in March) 5 millions.
Deliveries at this rate mean 60 millions a year.
| I estimate Indian produce for 1883 at about | 62 millions. |
| Deduct the probable quantity to be sent to countries outside the United Kingdom, and local consumption in India | 5½ „ |
| Leaving available for the home market | 56½ millions. |
Thus, if deliveries continue at the present rate, demand must soon equal, if not exceed, supply, and the consequence naturally must be enhanced prices, which, however, will surely to some extent check the deliveries.
There is, however, a hopeful feature regarding Indian Teas. The taste for them is increasing greatly. A very small per centage of the public drink them pure (a large per centage in Ireland), but the public generally are now accustomed to the strength attained only by mixing, say one third of Indian to two thirds China, and will nothing weaker. Thus retail dealers must continue to use them, and thus though, as remarked, increased prices will check deliveries, they will not do so with Indian Teas to the same extent they would with China.
Another hopeful feature is (for details see further on) a growing demand for Indian Tea is now established in Australia, and has quite lately commenced in America. Thus, I think, the increased produce from India (which in no case can be large for some years[90]) will probably be met by this outside demand, leaving no greater quantity than now available for the home market. True Ceylon (a new field) will increase the supply, but it will not be by much for some time. Take it all in all, I look hopefully at the prospects of Indian Tea in the future. I never anticipate a range of prices as good even as ruled in 1881, but a good deal better than we had in 1882, and thus enough to make the industry a paying one.