A continuance of similar large increases is most probable, especially as we compare with the relatively small deliveries of February to April inclusive of last year, when only 10,489,000 lbs. were taken from warehouse, against 12,782,000 lbs. in the same months of 1881—a decrease of 2,293,000 in three months. Part of the decrease may be attributed to the then higher range of medium and common Indian Teas.
The net result of the above statistics is that—with no materially larger arrivals visible, even with the liberal allowance of 5,000,000 lbs. increased shipments for the crop year—the deliveries give every promise of showing very considerable expansion, and, as we have said, threaten for the complete year to more than absorb the extra supply.
To enable anyone to check and form an independent opinion on the forecast we venture to give, we present below the imports and deliveries, half-year by half-year, for the four seasons 1879-80 to 1882-83 inclusive, with the totals of each crop year:—
Imports of Indian Tea.
| 1879-80. | 1880-81. | 1881-82. | 1882-83. | |
| lbs. | lbs. | lbs. | lbs. | |
| 1st July to31st Dec. | 23,537,000 | 29,142,000 | 28,947,000 | 33,218,000 |
| 1st Jan. to 30th June | 15,868,000 | 16,819,000 | 20,948,000 | [91]21,782,000 |
| Season year | 39,405,000 | 45,961,000 | 49,895,000 | [91]55,000,000 |
Deliveries of Indian Tea.
| 1879-80. | 1880-1. | 1881-2. | 1882-3. | |
| lbs. | lbs. | lbs. | lbs. | |
| 1st July to 31st Dec. | 16,847,000 | 24,352,000 | 23,755,000 | 27,109,000 |
| 1st Jan. to 30th June | 19,465,000 | 25,106,000 | 23,386,000 | [92]28,802,000 |
| Season year | 36,312,000 | 49,458,000 | 47,141,000 | [92]55,911,000 |
These figures show an estimated supply to the end of June next of 21,782,000 lbs., and an estimated consumption of 28,802,000. The former is based on the statements that the available supply for the United Kingdom will be 55 million pounds, and the latter on the actual delivery to January inclusive, and estimated average deliveries of 4,500,000 lbs. a month for the remainder of the half-year. Having these figures before us, we can proceed to calculate the effect on stocks.
| At 31st December last we had in warehouse | lbs. |
| a stock of | 21,716,000 |
| Add six months’ imports to June 30th | 21,782,000 |
| Total supply | 43,498,000 |
| Deduct estimated deliveries six months | 28,802,000 |
| Leaving probable stock at 30th June | 14,696,000 |
| Which will compare with (at 30th June, 1882) | 15,991,000 |