What connection has all this with the present war? Let us see. You already know that the late Sultan of Turkey was the friend of the Kaiser, and that he had given the Germans some very valuable rights in Asia Minor. Since that time German soldiers have trained the Turkish army, German money has been lent to the Turkish Government, and German influence has become so strong that we may almost regard Turkey as a German province. In 1908 there was a revolution in Turkey, the Sultan was forced from his throne, and his younger brother was chosen to take his place. In the autumn of 1912 the Balkan States declared war on Turkey, and beat her very badly. When the war was over all that remained of her territory in Europe was a little country less than twice the size of Wales. Serbia had become very powerful in the Balkan Peninsula.
Now this did not suit Germany at all. The Kaiser saw very clearly that if Serbia became the chief power in the Balkan Peninsula, Germany would be crushed out, and her interests in Asia Minor would be in great jeopardy. From the German point of view it was necessary that Serbia should be crippled as soon as possible.
You remember the murder of the Archduke Ferdinand, which I described to you in Chapter I. of this book. Austria was naturally very angry with Serbia, and was bent on making her pay dearly for her part in the crime. The Kaiser egged on Austria to fight Serbia, because he thought that a war would give him an excellent chance of reducing Serbia's strength, and of beginning that career of conquest on which he was now bent.
The above diagram compares the armies and navies of the chief European Powers.
We know, from a French Yellow Book[153] which was published on December 1, 1914, why the Germans wanted war, and what preparations they made for it. From a dispatch written by the French Ambassador at Berlin, we gather that even in July 1913 the Germans thought war was "inevitable," for the following reasons. Since the Franco-German War the national pride of the Germans has been fostered to such an extent that they really do believe themselves to be the greatest, strongest, and most efficient nation of the world. They believe that they must have colonies in order to provide new markets and an outlet for their surplus population, and they are very sore at the failure of their attempts to win them. In this respect they are specially angry with us and with France, because they consider that we and the French gained a victory over them in 1911, when they tried to secure a part of Morocco,[154] and were prevented from doing so. They cannot bear to think that a country which they beat so badly in 1870 should dare to stand in their way. The great manufacturers of guns and armour plate, and the chief merchants, believe that war is "good business," and in this belief they are strongly backed up by the nobles and military class. The soldiers are naturally anxious for war because it is their profession, and because war brings that quick promotion which is impossible in time of peace. The nobles fear the growing power of the people, and believe that they will only be able to preserve their "rights" by means of a war which will turn the nation's thoughts away from plans of reform. Armed peace such as Germany has maintained for many years past is a crushing burden to the nation; it swallows up the money which might be expended on improving the condition of the people, and turns many of them into Socialists.
From a secret report to the German Government, which somehow fell into French hands in April 1914, we learn how Germany proposed to prepare for this "inevitable" war. Since 1906 she has increased her Army four times, and in 1913 she raised from her people a war levy of £50,000,000. Her object in increasing the Army and raising this money is clearly revealed in the course of the report—namely, to fortify and extend German power "throughout the whole world." In order to do this, the people were to be taught that Germany must begin a war because her foes were threatening her, and that such a war would make their burdens lighter, and give them many years of peace and prosperity. When the mind of the people was thus prepared, discontent was to be stirred up amongst the native peoples in the French and British possessions of North Africa and Egypt, as well as in Russia, so that these countries would be full of revolt when war was declared. As for the small states, such as Belgium and Holland, they must be forced to follow Germany, or be conquered. If Belgium should prepare to resist, she would be invaded, in spite of the treaty which guaranteed her neutrality. All this was arranged as far back as May 1913.
In November of the same year King Albert of Belgium[155] had an interview with the Emperor and General von Moltke. It was then very clear that the Kaiser had been won over by the war party. The French Minister suggests that the Kaiser was jealous of the popularity of his son, the Crown Prince, who was then the rising hope of the soldiers. If so, history had repeated itself. The Kaiser as a young man had played for popularity against his father; the Crown Prince had followed his father's example, and had tried to throw him into the shade. It is probable, too, that the Emperor was very angry with France, because she had strengthened her army by making her soldiers serve three years instead of two.