"Assume that, owing to a railway strike, no goods trains could pass between London and Liverpool, and that a London merchant had a consignment of goods which it was of the utmost importance should be taken to Liverpool for despatch by a steamer on the point of sailing. Then: (1) What would be the maximum weight, and, also, the maximum bulk, of such consignment as an aeroplane could carry? (2) In what time, approximately, could the journey from Hendon to Liverpool be made? (3) What sum would the London trader have to pay for the transport?"
Mr Barber informs me that the maximum weight of such consignment as could be carried would be about ten stone (1 cwt. 1 qr.); that the maximum bulk would be about 30 cubic feet; that the journey would take about four hours; and that the charge for transport would be ten shillings per mile. The distance "as the crow—or the aeroplane—flies" between Hendon and Liverpool being about 200 miles, the charge would come to £100. Mr. Barber adds: "There is no doubt that within the very near future it will be possible to make much smaller charges; also charges could be very much reduced if there were sufficient business to make it worth while." This is what one would expect to hear. Yet, assuming that the aeroplane rate were reduced even by fifty per cent, it could not, even then, compete with the railway rate under normal conditions; while to convey through the air the 150 tons of general merchandise which a single locomotive attached to one of the many goods trains passing between London and Liverpool will haul would, on the basis of 1 cwt. 1 qr. per machine, require the use of 2400 aeroplanes. This calculation leaves out of account, too, the much greater weights of grain, timber and other heavy traffic in full truck-loads which pass from Liverpool to various inland places, and could not, of course, be dealt with by aeroplane at all.
After surveying all these possible competitors or alternatives we are left to conclude that, as far as foresight can suggest, the railways are likely still to constitute at least the chief means of carrying on internal transport and communication in this country.
If this be so, then the main proposition as to the outlook for inland transport in general relates to the outlook for the railways in particular.
Here the first consideration which presents itself is that, as regards main lines, our railway system to-day may be regarded as approximately complete.[[73]] There may still be good scope for the construction of extensions, new links or of short cuts; but these should count as improvements rather than as fresh lines of communication.
In London there are to be extensions of some of the existing tubes with a view to affording to the public increased facilities both for reaching the termini of the great trunk lines and for a still easier interchange of traffic between the different tube or underground railways themselves.
An exceptionally important scheme of improved transport was announced, on November 18, 1911, by the London and North-Western Railway Company, such scheme comprising (1) the electrification of 40 miles of suburban railway, including a material portion of the North London Railway; (2) the construction by the London Electric Railway Company of a new tube, extending their Bakerloo line from Paddington to the L. & N. W. system at Queens' Park; and (3) the running, for the first time, and by means of specially-constructed carriages, of through services between a trunk line and a tube.
While the existing tube companies may thus extend their lines, and while the trunk companies may seek to co-operate more with them in providing for suburban traffic, the outlook for any new tube companies in London would not seem to be very promising in view of the fact that the holders of £9,300,000 of ordinary stock in the London Electric Railway (controlling the Bakerloo, Piccadilly and Hampstead lines), out of a total capitalisation of £16,200,000, received in 1911 a dividend equal to only one per cent.
In the country what is most wanted is an increase in transport facilities between existing railways and outlying districts, the traffic from which would not be sufficient to justify the construction of branch lines of ordinary railway. There are fishing villages, agricultural districts, market gardening areas, and innumerable small communities which would gain a material advantage by being provided with better means of communication with the nearest railway.
Whether or not such facilities should be provided by (1) road motors, (2) railless electric traction, or (3) light railways, is a question that must depend on the conditions, circumstances or prospects of the locality concerned; but if more people are to be sent "back to the land," and if colonies of small holders are to be established thereon with any hope of success, then it is desirable, if not essential: (1) that each colony of such settlers should form an agricultural co-operative society; (2) that each society should set up its depôt to facilitate the combination of purchases or consignments into grouped lots; and (3) that between the depôt and a convenient railway station there should be provided some means of collective transport under the most effective and economical conditions.