"No one knows—at least, no one will tell—just how this great event was brought about. It seems, however, that Yuan Shih K'ai had been working for it for several weeks. He was strongly supported by Prince Ching, and these two told both the Regent himself and the Empress-Dowager that the Regent's retirement was necessary to a settlement of the present disturbed state of the Empire. The Prince Regent was reluctant but finally yielded to the demand, and henceforth he will be entirely out of public life. Yuan Shih K'ai and his followers and helpers hoped that the step would be of vast benefit to the Government, and would make a settlement with the rebels possible. They say they think this will be the case. Others, however, especially some foreigners, feel that this step, like so many others, has perhaps come too late, and that rebellious elements to the southward will consider it as an indication of weakness on the part of the Government, and that they will thus become encouraged to continue the fight. The Chinese say that this will not be the case. Chinese psychology, it appears, enters into the matter to a considerable extent, and the apparently reasonable view of the foreigner as to the logical result of the step and its effect upon rebel minds is not, according to the Chinese argument, justified.
"The edict retiring the Prince Regent makes Yuan Shih K'ai more powerful than ever, and if the situation is to be saved, he must be the man to do it. It is not as clear as it might be, and there is much speculation here amongst foreigners as to where it leaves the Empress-Dowager. A consensus of opinion appears to be that the Empress-Dowager remains only a figurehead. The edict at one point says that hereafter 'the whole responsibility' of appointing officials and carrying on the Government will rest upon the Prime Minister and the Ministers of State. Thus Yuan Shih K'ai is made supreme, for he is Prime Minister and Cabinet in one, as the Cabinet is composed of men of his own selection. The Empress-Dowager will have nothing to do with the executive or legislative branches of the new form of Government. She is apparently limited by these words, which follow those quoted above: 'When edicts are to be issued the Prime Minister will ask for the Imperial Seal to be used, and ceremonial audiences will be held by Us and the Emperor together.' This, it would seem, leaves the Empress-Dowager and the Emperor as the symbol of the sovereignty of China, but with none of the functions of law-making or administration. It will be the Empress-Dowager who sits on the throne to receive credentials from the foreign ministers when they come to the capital, and she will typify the head of the State to the world at large; but more than this she will not be."
Yuan Shih K'ai's next problem was to so arrange matters that the Manchu Court should see fit to "abdicate," and at the same time temporise with the Republican party by means of the famous but fatuous Peace Conference. Here the master-hand revealed itself. For a time Yuan seemed trusted yet doubted alike by both sides. He succeeded in bringing actual hostilities to an end—and this may have been his objective.
Under date of January 21, 1912, a Peking correspondent wrote:—
"From time to time since the beginning of the present upheaval in China the situation has seemed extremely complicated and beyond all understanding, and to-day it appears more so than ever. Not only is the controversy between the Revolutionists and the Government here still under way and very bitter, but there is trouble and turmoil within the Manchu camp, due to a decided difference of opinion amongst the Princes over the important question of abdication. It is known that last Friday, January 19th, had been set as the day for the issuance of the abdication edict. The Throne was fully prepared to clear out; Yuan Shih K'ai had obtained the full approval of the Empress-Dowager and of leading Princes to this move, and the immediate retirement of the Court to Jehol seemed certain. Complications, however, set in, and to-day it is not at all certain that abdication will come at once. There is fight-talk in the air, and no one knows what will happen. Yuan Shih K'ai remains secluded in his office, on leave of absence, surrounded by more soldiers than ever before, and evidently in fear of further attempts at assassination. There are Manchus of royal blood, and others of red blood, who declare against abdication and desire to fight it out. Many of these call Yuan Shih K'ai a traitor, and, if circumstantial rumours are to be believed, even in part, Yuan Shih K'ai is in as much danger from a certain Manchu element as from revolutionary bombs.
"It is a tremendous situation to-day, hard to understand and impossible actually to know, for those who do know what has transpired will not tell, while those who pretend to know spread varying and sensational reports. There is something behind it all, something that, as far as I can ascertain, no foreigner knows. Yuan Shih K'ai is playing a deep game, in the opinion of all, and some say that he intends that the finale of his incomprehensible regime as Premier shall be the elevation to the presidency of Yuan Shih K'ai. The Premier, beyond all doubt, has lost much ground recently with the foreigners who have thought so highly of him, and he is freely accused of playing a game. Perhaps this is unjust to him, but, if so, he has himself to blame, for beyond doubt he has not made the most of his opportunities."
Yuan's striking personality, his military genius, his character, the magnetic attraction he has for the foreigners around him, must have had much to do in shaping the end of recent events. But how much so, and the whole truth concerning the part he has played in this Revolution yet remains to be told in a volume that will reveal the inwardness of the motives and ambitions and achievements of H.E. Yuan Shih K'ai, perhaps the greatest man in the Chinese Empire of to-day. How to read the riddle of his recent diplomatic moves is beyond the powers of the Occidental. When Admiral Sah fired his few effectual rounds at Kilometre Ten, and retired down-river instead of annihilating the routed Republicans, was he acting under Yuan Shih K'ai's express orders? When later on Hankow was taken and Admiral Sah decided to bombard Wuchang and thus bring the campaign to a close, who prevented him carrying out his effectual proposals? Was it Yuan? And then, on November 27th, when Hanyang fell and Wuchang seemed at the mercy of the Imperialists, who was it that stayed the forward move and gave General Li Yuan Hung an opportunity to reconstruct his plan of campaign? Was Yuan even then drawing his net more closely round his Manchu enemies. And did he, too, cause the evacuation of the Wuhan centre, leaving it to the Revolutionists to reoccupy the hardly-won positions without the firing of a shot or the loss of a single life? The future still holds the solution of these riddles. There are those, however, who see in all these moves the hand of a statesman, eager and able to hold together his country and at the same time revenge himself on his enemies in the corrupt Manchu Court.