Ishikawa Kawachi no Kami, a commissioner of foreign affairs, came to see us on the 18th. He told us that no date had been fixed for the assembling of the daimiôs, and no one of them could be blamed if he arrived at Kiôto later than the others. Even supposing that the few who were already there, or were about to arrive, should discuss matters and come to a decision, how could they enforce it? Objections would surely be raised. We came to the conclusion from this conversation that civil war was after all not unlikely to break out, and that the omission to fix a date for the assembly was part of the Tycoon's plan for embarrassing his opponents.
Letters which arrived overland from Yedo on the 20th reported the general impression to be that there was no more a Tycoon, and that Keiki was nobody. So much did distance and report by word of mouth change the look of the situation. Itô Shunsuké's opinion was that war would begin almost immediately, with the object of depriving the Tycoon of a part of his domains, which were far too large for the peace of the country. He had only seven battalions of infantry in Kiôto, all reinforcements having been countermanded in the belief that no cause for war existed. Of course Hiôgo and Ozaka would not be the most peaceful places of residence for foreigners if war did break out, and our Legation, situated just at the back of the Ozaka castle, would be endangered, as that fortress was certain to be the centre of a severe conflict in arms. He wanted to know whether Sir Harry's arrival and the opening of Hiôgo and Ozaka to foreign trade could not be deferred, and whether Saigô had written to the chief to make this proposal. I said "No, of course" (though I did not know). Then, said he, their object must be to open these two places, and so content foreigners, while the Japanese went on with their plans for the reformation of the government. Some one however must be appointed to represent Japan at Ozaka and Hiôgo. I suggested the present governors, but he replied that they would immediately be expelled when the crisis arrived. I rejoined that as long as the insurgent forces did not attack the residences of foreigners, they might do as they liked with the Tycoon, but that if they interfered with us they would have a couple of English regiments and all the foreign men-of-war to fight against, as well as the Tokugawa troops. Itô did not think they would wish to do this, and promised to let me know beforehand when the actual day for taking action became imminent. A body of Chôshiû men was coming up under the command of Môri Heirokurô and Fukumoto Shima, Katsura (i.e. Kido) and Kikkawa Kemmotsu being obliged to remain at home to carry on the administration of the province.
Sir Harry arrived on December 24, took a look at the legation quarters, and then went back to the ship that had brought him down. There was a fine confusion all day. I received a letter from Shinosaki Yatarô comparing the present condition of the country to an eggshell held in the hand, and begging me to persuade Komatsu and Saigô to keep the peace. On Christmas Day Kasuya Chikugo no Kami, a commissioner of foreign affairs, called. He said that the daimiôs of Hikoné, Bizen and Geishiû, all three men of importance, were in Kiôto, and he appeared to be doubtful what was going to happen. My old friend Hayashi Kenzô, who had made the cruise in H.M.S. "Argus" with me in January, called on the 28th, and reported that 1500 Chôshiû men had disembarked at Nishinomiya on the 23rd, under the command of Môri Takumi. He also seemed uncertain whether there would be any fighting, but he thought that Saigô and Gotô were trying to keep the peace. My protégé Endo naturally went off to Nishinomiya to see his clansmen, and doubtless to report what he had learned in Yedo to Môri Takumi. The latter had the reputation of being a man of capacity, which was perhaps the reason why he had retired into a private position (in-kio) early in life. On the 29th Iga no Kami came to see the chief, accompanied by Nagai Gemba no Kami, who had the credit of being almost the only adviser of the Tycoon at the moment, though of course Iga no Kami was admitted into their secrets. All the governors of Ozaka and Hiôgo were present, and the only subjects of discussion related to the arrangement for opening these places to trade on January 1. "All the governors" is the phrase, because the practice in those days was to duplicate nearly every administrative office.
Next day the two great men came again, and the Nagasaki murders were the topic of conversation. It appeared unlikely that we should obtain any satisfaction. It was however agreed that old Hirayama should again go to Nagasaki, in spite of Gemba's efforts to get him let off this disagreeable errand. The Foreign Office had written approving Sir Harry's action, and he seemed inclined to keep this question hanging over the Tycoon's government as a perpetual nightmare. He told them in the strongest language that we would never desist from pressing the matter until the murderers were seized and punished. Our callers asked a great number of questions about the English constitution, just as Gotô had done, so that it appeared as if both parties were desirous of getting our advice. Then Sir Harry told them that unless they got all troops away from Ozaka, where they might come into collision with foreigners, he would send for a couple of regiments. I could not help feeling that it was unfair of him to meddle in this way in Japanese domestic affairs and thus add to the Tycoon's embarrassments, for as the daimiôs' forces had taken Ozaka merely as a stage towards advancing on Kiôto, where else could they go except to the capital? Following on this move, he sent me the following day to Koba Dennai, the Satsuma agent, to explain why he wished their troops to be removed. Koba replied that there were only two hundred and fifty, but doubtless they could be sent elsewhere, and he would write to Saigô on this point. From there I went on to see a Chôshiû man named Nagamatsu Bunsuké, who had come over from Nishinomiya, and was stopping with the Geishiû people. A proclamation was out announcing that the Chôshiû forces, having been ordered to come up to the neighbourhood of the capital, were allowed to borrow the use of the Geishiû yashiki, and to be quartered also at the Nishi Hongwanji temple. Nevertheless, they had no wish to come to Ozaka, and thought it a great piece of luck that the English Minister had proposed to the Tycoon's people what they themselves happened to desire most particularly. I found it impossible to get any explanation from Nagamatsu of the real reason for their coming.
Iga no Kami had told us that by a messenger who left Geishiû on the 15th, instructions were sent ordering them not to come, but he went by sea, thus missing a Chôshiû messenger who arrived there by land to report that they were starting in compliance with the orders previously given. (This was evidently a mere fiction.) He also said that on the 20th three Chôshiû steamers full of troops put in at Mitarai in Geishiû, and asked for Geishiû officers to accompany them. This request was refused, and they were advised to return home, which they declined to do, alleging their prince's orders; without a recall from him they were unable to go back to Chôshiû. This was the Geishiû story, which it was impossible to believe. I felt certain that it had been concocted between the two clans, and was simply in accordance with the general plan of campaign. That the Tycoon should have sent orders to countermand the movements of Chôshiû troops was pretty clear proof that when the original instructions were given (if they really were given), the present change of policy on the part of the government was not contemplated—as Iki no Kami had pretended to us—but in reality had recently been forced on them by the confederate daimiôs. It had been intended by the chief that I should go down to Nishinomiya to ascertain how the land lay, but having learnt all that the Chôshiû man was willing to tell me, I was relieved from the necessity of undertaking a toilsome journey.
That day, the last of the year 1867, despatches arrived from the Foreign Office sanctioning my appointment as Japanese Secretary, with a salary of £700 a year, in succession to Eusden, transferred to Hakodaté as consul.
CHAPTER XXIV
OUTBREAK OF CIVIL WAR (1868)