1.—The nearest trade road from Europe to the Far East lies through the Suez Canal, down the Red Sea, past Perim, to Aden; thence to Ceylon; from there to Singapore, and to Hong Kong in the China Sea.
2.—As three-quarters of the external trade of both China and Japan is in British hands; as the British residents are nearly equal, numerically, to those of all foreign nations combined; and as British ocean steamers are more numerous than those of the whole world, and eightfold those of Germany, the second on the list, it is only fitting, independently of the possession of India, that this trade route should always be retained, as at the present time, in the hands of England, whose position is greatly strengthened by the possession of Gibraltar, Malta, and Cyprus in the Mediterranean.
3.—So long as this sea road is held intact and properly defended, Great Britain remains the dominant commercial and naval power in the China Sea.
4.—To pass Perim or Aden in the Red Sea, and so gain access to the Indian Ocean, would be almost impossible for any European power at war with England.
5.—Singapore likewise commands, to a great extent, the entrance to, and exit from, the China Sea.
6.—Apart, though, altogether from the active power of fortifications and artillery, torpedoes and submarine mines, there is the equally effective one of want of coal.
7.—Even supposing that Germany, Russia, Austria, or Italy were able to coal at Port Said,—a state of affairs which, while we occupy Egypt, would not be possible in a state of belligerency,—their steamers could not traverse the 7000 miles to the coast of China without fresh fuel; and, against the will of England, this would not be attainable.
8.—France alone, by coaling at Brock, opposite Aden, and Pondicherry, might take the outer channel of Singapore, and so reach Saigon, a distance of 2300 miles; or even Haiphong, in Tonquin, an additional 600 miles; but the vessels could only steam very slowly.
9.—The defensive value to the Empire of the Colonies guarding this great trade road is therefore clear.
10.—But these prosperous Colonies are also commercially valuable to the Empire in themselves, and particularly Ceylon, the Straits Settlements, and Hong Kong.
11.—Ceylon does a trade of 6,000,000l. a year with the Empire, whereof half is with the United Kingdom, which she is now supplying with 50,000,000 lbs. of tea annually.
12.—The Straits Settlements have a population of 507,000; and of the external trade of 178 million dollars, 78 millions are with the Empire. There is no public debt, and the Colony contributes (as also Ceylon and Hong Kong) 100,000l. a year for its defence, which is now, for the first time, upon a proper footing.
13.—Hong Kong, ceded to the British 50 years ago, has become a port of first-class importance. Although, not barring the approach to the Upper China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the waters of Japan, it does so to a large extent, in a practical sense owing to the coaling difficulty.
14.—The shipping trade of Hong Kong has doubled in the past 20 years. Of 130 million tons of shipping, passing in and out of the harbour in 1890, 7 million tons were British, 4 million Chinese, and 2½ million foreign. British ships numbered 5500 (an increase of 136, and 400,000 tons in three years); foreign ships numbered 2600 (an increase of 307, and 225,000 tons), and Chinese junks 55,600—a total of 64,000 vessels.
15.—The population of Hong Kong is about 200,000, of which 10,000 are European, and the remainder Chinese. Emigrants from China, to the number of 42,000, passed through the port, and of these, 36,000 were bound for places under the British flag, while 850,000 Chinese visited the island in the course of the year.
16.—The general impression of Hong Kong, in a commercial, maritime, defensive, and picturesque sense, has been fittingly summed up by the late Governor: "It may be doubted whether the evidence of material and moral achievement make, anywhere, a more forcible appeal to eye and imagination, and whether any other spot on the earth is thus more likely to excite, or more fully justifies, pride in the name of Englishman."
17.—Provided, therefore, the British hold firmly by this trade route, and, in friendly alliance with China, do all that is possible to develop mutual trade between Burmah and the Yunnan district, there is nothing to fear from the rivalry of any other power, for so long as South Africa remains loyal to the Empire, the long sea road by the Cape is absolutely impossible to any other nation. If, however, the short route be cut off at its base, by the British abandonment of the magnificent mercantile position established in Egypt, not only will the labour of ten years be thrown away, but the whole of the gigantic trade with the East be imperilled.
18.—The only foreign powers capable of injuring us, in a naval sense, in Chinese waters are Russia and the United States. The former has a formidable fleet, based upon the splendid fortified harbour of Vladivostock, and could move land forces upon Corea. The reinforcement of the squadron from Europe should, however, be impracticable. As regards the United States, hostility is happily not a likely contingency; but, in any case, the 4500 miles across the stormy Pacific Ocean, devoid of any coaling station, unless it be Honolulu, is a formidable barrier.
C. E. HOWARD VINCENT.
21, 12, 1891.
"Very bright and interesting."—Morning Post.
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London: SAMPSON LOW, MARSTON & CO., Limited,
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WORKS
by
Colonel HOWARD VINCENT, c.b., m.p.