“But Thorpe and Patterson have good characters, haven’t they?” asked Pringle.
“Good reputations,” said George tartly. “Though it is whispered that Thorpe, as a young man, was habitually careless with firearms. But Tillotson also bore an excellent reputation, minus the whispering. It is at least half as probable that two men of good repute should turn perjurers over-night, as that one should. Broderick had a very bad reputation and Krouse had no reputation at all. In fact, that is the only reason a few cling to their belief in Tillotson’s innocence. No motive or reason of any kind is assigned for Tillotson’s unprovoked attack upon Krouse, as alleged. But the enmity of Thorpe and Tillotson was of common knowledge. It is also rumored that both had been paying marked attention to the same lady. Here are two possible motives for a conspiracy: hatred and jealousy. Of the two dead men, Broderick was a led captain, a bravo, a proven tool for any man who had a handle to him; the other man was unknown.”
“The cab driver told the same story,” said Pringle. “Was he an enemy of Tillotson?”
“He did,” agreed George. “He also ran away. When he came back, the next day, he accounted for himself by saying that he was scared. That sounds queer to me. Timid people may drive cabs, but timid people do not drive cabs in El Paso. The life is too hilarious. But, if he wasn’t scared, why did he run away? But again, Jeff Bransford wouldn’t get scared——”
“You’re all wrong there,” said Pringle. “Me—I’ve been scared stiff, lots of times. And anyhow—how could any fourth man get away? The neighborhood turned out at once—and they didn’t see him.”
“Jeff Bransford wouldn’t be scared enough to run away, nor you either,” amended George. “If you did that, you wouldn’t want anybody to believe you under oath. Come back now. How did the fourth man get away, if he was Jeff Bransford and wouldn’t run away, no matter what he had done? To figure it out, suppose you knew it was Jeff, but didn’t know how he got away—you see? He went in that cab! If the driver was really so timid, why did he ever come back to mix in the trouble of a murder trial? To help hang Tillotson. And his evidence was needed because Thorpe and Patterson were known foes to Tillotson—while he was not.
“If they lied, if the whole thing was a put-up job, if they carried Jeff off in the cab, probably wounded——”
“It strikes me,” said Leo, “that there are a fatal number of ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ in your theory. Given a series of four even chances, each of which you are to win, and each of which, to count for you, is contingent upon your winning each of the other three, and your chances are not one in eight but one in two hundred and fifty-six.”
“This is not a game of dice, Mr. Ballinger,” retorted Aughinbaugh. “This letter is not the result of chance, but purposed and planned by an unusual man—who had ten days in which to study it out. I have only touched on a few of his significant allusions and stopped to put forward the complete theory based on them all. If you will be patient I will now show you how he unmistakably denounces these men.”
“I’m sorry,” said Billy, “but I have to acknowledge that I agree with Leo. A theory based upon too many probabilities becomes improbable for that very reason. Too many ‘ifs’!”