In Greece, which does not signify much for a European war, but might in combination with the small Balkan States prove very troublesome to Turkey, and is therefore important for us, an active army of 146,000 men can be put into the field; there are besides this 83,000 men in the Landwehr and 63,000 men in the Landsturm.
Spain has a peace army of 116,232 men, of whom 34,000 are permanently stationed in Africa. In war she can raise 327,000 men (140,000 active army, 154,000 garrison troops, 33,000 gendarmerie). The mobilization is so badly organized that at the end of a month 70,000 to 80,000 men could at most be put into the field.
As regards the naval forces of the States which concern us to-day, the accompanying table, which is taken from the Nauticus of 1911, affords a comparative epitome, which applies to May, 1911. It shows that, numerically, the English fleet is more than double as strong as ours. This superiority is increased if the displacements and the number of really modern ships are compared. In May we possessed only four battleships and one armed cruiser of the latest type; the English have ten ships-of-the-line and four armed cruisers which could be reckoned battleships. The new ships do not materially alter this proportion. The comparative number of the ships-of-the-line is becoming more favourable, that of the armoured cruisers will be less so than it now is. It may be noticed that among our cruisers are a number of vessels which really have no fighting value, and that the coast-defence ironclads cannot be counted as battleships. France, too, was a little ahead of us in the number of battleships in May, 1911, but, from all that is hitherto known about the French fleet, it cannot be compared with the German in respect of good material and trained crews. It would, however, be an important factor if allied with the English.
|Battle- |Armoured |Armoured| Armoured |Protected |Number |N S
Nation. |ships |Coast |Gunboats| Cruisers |Cruisers |of |u u
|above |Defence |and | | |Torpedo |m b
|5,000 |Vessels |Armoured| | |Vessels |b m
|Tons. |from |Ships | | | |e a
| |3000 Tons|under | | | |r r
| |to 5,000 |3,000 | | | | i
| |Tons |Tons | | | | i
+—+———-+—+———+—+——-+—+———-+—+———-+——+——+o n
|No|Displ. |No|Displ.|No|Displ|No|Displ. |No|Displ. | |From|f e
| | | | | | | | | | |200+|80- | s
| | | | | | | | | | |Tons| 200|
| | | | | | | | | | | |Tons|
————-+—+———-+—+———+—+——-+—+———-+—+———-+——+——+—-
GERMANY: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |25|332,410| 5|20,600| -| —- |10|114,590|33|122,130| 117| 70| 12
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building|12| —- | -| —- | -| —- | 4| —- | 7| —- | 14| — | —
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
ENGLAND: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |50|793,260| -| —- | -| —- |38|484,970|66|333,540| 223| 36| 53
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building|12|286,640| -| —- | -| —- | 6|145,320|20|101,320| 51| — | 19
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
FRANCE: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |22|314,930| -| —- | -| —- |22|214,670|10| 50,780| 71| 191| 52
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 4| 93,880| -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | 13| — | 19
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
ITALY: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready | 8| 96,980| -| —- | -| —- |10| 79,530| 4| 10,040| 53| 39| 7
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 4| 84,000| -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | 3| 10,200| 14| 28| 13
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
AUSTRIA- | | | | | | | | | | | | |
HUNGARY | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |11|102,620| -| —- | -| —- | 3| 18,870| 4| 10,590| 18| 66| 7
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 5| 94,500| -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | 3| —- | 6| — | —
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
RUSSIA: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Baltic | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Fleet | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready | 4| 62,300| -| —- | 1|1,760| 6| 64,950| 4| 27,270| 60| 19| 13
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 8| —- | -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | 1| — | 1
Black Sea| | | | | | | | | | | | |
Fleet | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready | 6| 72,640| -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | 3| 13,620| 17| 10| 4
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 4| —- | -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | 14| — | 7
Siberian | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Fleet |—| —- | -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | 2| 9,180| 20| 7| 13
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
UNITED | | | | | | | | | | | | |
STATES: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |30|434,890| 4|13,120| -| —- |14|181,260|16| 65,270| 40| 28| 19
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 7|190,000| -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | -| —- | 14| — | 20
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
JAPAN: | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Ready |13|194,690| 2| 8,540| -| —- |13|139,830|12| 49,170| 59| 49| 12
Voted or | | | | | | | | | | | | |
building| 3| —- | -| —- | -| —- | 4|107,120| 3| 15,000| 2| — | 1
————-+—+———-+—+———+—+——-+—+———-+—+———-+——+——+—-
Let us assume that in event of war England as well as France must leave a certain naval force in the Mediterranean, which need not be stronger than the combined Italian and Austrian fleets, but might be smaller, in event of a change in the grouping of the States; let us further assume that numerous cruisers will be detained at the extra-European stations—the fact, however, remains that England and France together can collect against Germany in the North Sea a fleet of battleships alone three times as strong as that of Germany, and will be supported by a vastly superior force of torpedo-vessels and submarines. If Russia joins the alliance of these Powers, that would signify another addition to the forces of our opponents which must not be underestimated, since the Baltic Fleet in the spring of 1911 contained two large battleships, and the Baltic fleet of cruisers is always in a position to threaten our coasts and to check the free access to the Baltic. In one way or the other we must get even with that fleet. The auxiliary cruiser fleet of the allies, to which England can send a large contingent, would also be superior to us.
As regards matériel and training, it may be assumed that our fleet is distinctly superior to the French and Russian, but that England is our equal in that respect. Our ships' cannons will probably show a superiority over the English, and our torpedo fleet, by its reckless energy, excellent training, and daring spirit of adventure, will make up some of the numerical disadvantage. It remains to be seen whether these advantages will have much weight against the overwhelming superiority of an experienced and celebrated fleet like the English.
Reflection shows that the superiority by sea, with which we must under certain circumstances reckon, is very great, and that our position in this respect is growing worse, since the States of the Triple Entente can build and man far more ships than we can in the same time.
If we consider from the political standpoint the probable attitude of the separate States which may take part in the next war against Germany, we may assume that the intensity of the struggle will not be the same in every case, since the political objects of our possible antagonists are very different.
If we look at France first, we are entitled to assume that single-handed she is not a match for us, but can only be dangerous to us as a member of a coalition. The tactical value of the French troops is, of course, very high; numerically the army of our neighbour on the west is almost equal, and in some directions there may be a superiority in organization and equipment; in other directions we have a distinct advantage. The French army lacks the subordination under a single commander, the united spirit which characterizes the German army, the tenacious strength of the German race, and the esprit de corps of the officers. France, too, has not those national reserves available which would allow us almost to double our forces. These are the conditions now existing. But if the French succeed in making a large African army available for a European theatre, the estimate of strength of the French army as compared with ours will be quite different. This possibility must be borne in mind, for, according to the whole previous development of affairs, we may safely assume that France will leave no stone unturned to acquire, if only for a time, a military superiority over Germany. She knows well that she cannot reach her political goal except by a complete defeat of her eastern neighbour, and that such a result can only be obtained by the exercise of extraordinary efforts.
It is certain that France will not only try to develop her own military power with the utmost energy, but that she will defend herself desperately if attacked by Germany; on the other hand, she will probably not act on the offensive against Germany unless she has increased her own efficiency to the utmost limit, and believes that she has secured the military supremacy by the help of active allies. The stakes are too high to play under unfavourable conditions. But if France thinks she has all the trumps in her hands, she will not shrink from an offensive war, and will stake even thing in order to strike us a mortal blow. We must expect the most bitter hostility from this antagonist. Should the Triple Alliance break up—as seems probable now—this hour will soon have struck.[B] If the war then declared be waged against us in combination with England, it may be assumed that the allied Great Powers would attempt to turn our strategical right flank through Belgium and Holland, and penetrate into the heart of Germany through the great gap in the fortresses between Wesel and Flushing. This operation would have the considerable advantage of avoiding the strong line of the Rhine and threatening our naval bases from the land side. From the superiority of the combined Anglo-French fleet, the army of invasion could without difficulty have its base on our coasts. Such an operation would enormously facilitate the frontal attack on our west frontier, and would enable the French to push a victorious advance onward to the Rhine, after investing Metz and Diedenhofen.