Man and the Glacial Period

by G. Frederick Wright

A fifth astronomical theory, and one which has of late years been received with great favour, is that so ably advocated by the late Dr. James Croll and by Professor James Geikie. Following the suggestions of the astronomer Adhémar, these writers have attempted to show that not only one Glacial epoch, but a succession of such epochs, has been produced in the world by the effect of the changes which are known to have taken place in the eccentricity of the earth’s orbit when combined with the precession of the equinoxes—another calculable astronomical cause.

Fig. 99.—Diagram showing effect of precession: A. condition of things now; B. as it will be 10,500 years hence. The eccentricity is of course greatly exaggerated.

It is well known that the earth’s orbit is elliptical; that is, it is longer in one direction than in the other, so that the sun is one side of the centre. During the winter of the northern hemisphere the earth is now about three million miles nearer the sun than in the summer; but the summer makes up for this distance by being about seven days longer than the winter. Through the precession of the equinoxes this state of things will be reversed in ten thousand five hundred years; at which time we shall be nearer the sun during our northern summer, and farther away in winter, our winter then being also longer than our summer. Besides, through the unequal attraction of the planets the eccentricity of the earth’s orbit periodically increases and diminishes, so that there have been periods when the earth was ten million five hundred thousand miles farther from the sun in winter than in summer; at which times, also, the winter was nearly twenty-eight days longer than the summer. Such an extreme elongation of the earth’s orbit occurred about two hundred and fifty thousand years ago.

It is easy to assume that such a change in astronomical conditions would produce great effects upon the earth’s climate; and equally easy to connect with those effects the vast extension of ice during the Glacial period. Since, also, this period of extreme eccentricity terminated only eighty thousand years ago, the close of the Glacial period would, perhaps, upon Mr. Croll’s theory, be comparatively a recent event; for if the secular summer of the earth’s eccentricity lags relatively as far behind the secular movements as the annual summer does behind the vernal equinox, we should, as Professor Charles H. Hitchcock suggests, have to place the complete breaking up of the Ice period as late as forty thousand years ago.[DT]

[DT] Geology of New Hampshire, vol. iii, p.327.

We have no space to indicate, as it deserves, the comparative merits and demerits of this ingenious theory. It would, however, be a great calamity to have geologists accept it without scrutiny. It is, indeed, a part of the business of geologists to doubt such theories until they are verified by a thorough examination of all accessible terrestrial evidence bearing upon the subject. There is no reason to question the reality of the variations in the relative positions of the earth and the sun assumed by Mr. Croll; though there may be serious doubt whether the effects of those changes upon climate would be all that is surmised, since equal amounts of heat would fall upon the earth during summer, whether made longer or shorter by the cause referred to. During the short summers the earth is so much nearer the sun that it receives each season absolutely as much heat as it does during the longer summers, when it is so much farther away from the sun. Thus the theory rests at last upon the question what would become of the heat reaching the earth in these differing conditions. It is plausibly urged by Mr. Croll that when a hemisphere of the earth is passing through a period of long winters the radiation of heat will be so excessive that the temperature would fall much below what it would during the shorter winters; and so ice and snow would accumulate far beyond the usual amount. It is also supposed that the effect of the summer’s sun in melting the ice during the short summer would be diminished through natural increase of the amount of foggy and cloudy weather.

Adhémar’s theory is supposed by Sir Robert Ball, Royal Astronomer of Ireland, to be considerably re-enforced by a discovery which he has made concerning the distribution of heat upon the earth during the seasons culminating in the summer and winter solstices. Croll had assumed, on the authority of Herschel, that a hemisphere of the earth during the longer winter in aphelion would receive the same actual amount of heat which would fall upon it during the shorter summer in perihelion; whereas, according to Dr. Ball’s discovery, “of the total amount of heat received from the sun on a hemisphere of the earth in the course of a year, sixty-three per cent is received during the summer and thirty-seven per cent during the winter.”[DU] When, therefore, the summers occur in perihelion the heat is more intense than Croll had supposed, and, at the same time, the winters occurring in aphelion are more deficient in heat than he had assumed. This discovery of Dr. Ball will not, however, materially affect the discussion of Croll’s theory upon its inherent merits, since it is simply an intensification of the causes invoked by him. We will therefore let it stand or fall in the light of the general considerations hereafter to be adduced.

[DU] Cause of an Ice Age, p. 90.