Explanation.—The heavy horizontal lines show the average price during a period of ten years, though in a few instances the period is longer. The diagonal lines show the extremes of fluctuation during the period which they cover. During the first two hundred and fifty years the coinage of England made the shilling in which prices were reckoned a much larger unit, practically three times as great as at present. The dots within circles indicate where the horizontal lines might have been had the unit been always the same. The same dots crossed cover a period of forty years in which prices are somewhat uncertain, from transition between the old standard and the new. The beginning of the nineteenth century shows a remarkable condition of the wheat market, due chiefly to the wars in which England was engaged, together with issues of paper money affecting the standard of value. The record is especially interesting from showing, first, the great fluctuations natural from unequal seasons; second, the gradual increase in cost of production under the law of diminishing returns; third, the effects of changes in money legislation; fourth, the effect of extra consumption in times of war; and fifth, the effects of the present world-wide commerce in overcoming the law of diminishing returns. A more complete record for the eighteenth century would add to the interest, if not to the effectiveness of the chart.
Relation to wages.—For convenience of comparison, the average price of wheat in France during periods of twenty-five years, as given by Schoenhof, is added by dotted horizontal lines. The double line across the chart indicates the range of average day's wages of house mechanics in England, without indicating the extreme of fluctuations. It seems evident that wages and subsistence have something in common.
CHART NO. 9
Chart IX. Prices of hogs and hams in Chicago, 1884-1907. Page 95.
Prices of live hogs and green hams in Chicago, 1884 to 1897
General description.—This chart exhibits the fluctuations in prices of live hogs and green hams as shown by reports of the [pg 097] Chicago Board of Trade from September, 1884, to August, 1897, together with the visible supply of live hogs in the market from month to month and for the entire year. The figures to right and left give dollars per cwt. of live hogs, and per barrel of green hams. The figures upon the upper third of the chart, right and left, indicate the number of thousands of live hogs received in Chicago during the successive months, as indicated by the dark lines. The figures at the top of the chart under the date line give the number of thousands of hogs received during the entire year. The year is taken from September to August following, because the hog crop is in large measure dependent upon the corn crop coming into use in September.
Prices of live hogs.—No. 3, irregular line, gives the fluctuation of top prices in every month from September, 1884, to August, 1897, for fat hogs. The total range is between $3.30 per cwt. in September, 1896, and $8.80 in February, 1893. A somewhat striking general correspondence is readily seen between this line of prices and a line connecting the ends of the lines indicating the monthly supply of live hogs at the top of the chart. The average price of the year is easily seen to be low when the supply for the year is high, and high when the supply is low, though in some instances the effect of an increased supply is evidently anticipated in the prices. Thus, an increase of 2,000,000 of hogs in 1889-90 over the supply in 1888-9 is anticipated by falling prices during the early part of 1889. In a similar way, the effect of a diminished supply in the summer of 1895 is not so marked upon the prices as might have been the case had not the prospect been strong for a large supply in the fall of 1895. Whatever influence the local manipulation of the market may have had, it is perfectly evident that conditions of supply and demand have overwhelming influence.
Prices of green hams and mess pork.—No. 2, giving the range of prices per barrel of green hams, shows fluctuations in some respects corresponding to the prices of live hogs, but with variations due in a measure, undoubtedly, to speculative interests in these products. The range is from $6.60 in December, 1897, to $13.80 in May, 1893, corresponding with the range in the prices of live [pg 098] hogs. Were there room upon the chart, it would be easy to show an almost exactly corresponding fluctuation in the prices of mess pork, which article is one affected largely by speculation, though even that speculation is dependent upon prospective supply and demand. The prices of mess pork at the New York Produce Exchange during the same period ranged from $9 a barrel in 1885-6 to $15.80 and $15.60 in 1887-8, $14.20 in 1889-90, $11.75 in 1891, $14.20 in 1892, $22.60 in 1893, and gradually down to $7.25 in 1896-7.