When we look around us at results happening daily, of the causes of which we are ignorant, we are led to regard them as isolated incidents subject to no law or rule; but could we see and understand the secret workings and connection existing between cause and effect, we might frequently discover that all works by rule. As it is, we may readily mark the boundaries, within which events must happen in very many instances; and do much to estimate their probability. We speak of Chance, as something without plan or design, but taking in a large range, our calculations will approximate closely to the truth. When we throw a copper into the air, the chances of "heads or tails," as the boys say, are equal, and though one or the other may occur most frequently for a few throws, in a large number, say a thousand, the results will be about equally divided. In this case the sides of the coin must be equal in weight, else it will be like the grumbler's bread and butter:
"I never had a piece of bread,
Particularly good and wide,
But fell upon the sanded floor,
And always on the buttered side."
Had he put on less butter, perhaps the sides would have been more equal in weight, and the probability of the buttered side being uppermost would have been increased. Disturbing causes unknown to us, may often shape the result; but in the absence of these, we may pretty accurately estimate our chances.
We see accidents from fire and flood, happening at times and points least expected; but the insurer has learned by observation to estimate probabilities, and by taking a wide range of country and a period of years, he does a comparatively safe business. Death takes the young and the old; but the life insurer has conned the bills of mortality and studied the ages of those who have died, until he can estimate at once the probability of duration of life, and determine what he can afford to pay for an annuity contingent on life, or engage for a present sum, or an annual sum paid for life, to pay the heirs at the death of the insured. In one instance his estimate may fall short, and in another exceed, but the average will be about right.
So, too, the man who deals in lotteries and games of chance, knows the data and calculates carefully the probabilities, and though "luck" may sometimes be against him, his estimates of probabilities are based on mathematical principles, and he is secure in being ultimately the gaining party.
How these chances are calculated, depends on the data in each case, and it is not within the range of our present plan to attempt more than giving a general idea of the subject; and this with any one of ordinary prudence, will be sufficient to prevent all intermeddling with lotteries and every other species of gambling. The probabilities are always against the casual operator, even if all be conducted fairly; what then must they be when fraud and dishonesty are superadded? It is downright swindling!