These figures indicate a substantial equity, but are somewhat misleading because they refer to par value. A fair estimate of the market value of this stock equity, which is the margin of security in the properties from the bondholder's point of view, can be obtained from a table on page 82, which shows a balance available for dividends, after paying all operating expenses and fixt charges, of all the railroads of the United States for the year ended June 30, 1906, of $457,060,326. This amount is equivalent to nearly 7 per cent upon the total par value of the stocks.
Estimating that a railroad stock should earn 10 per cent upon its market price—and even the most prejudiced will admit that a stock earning 10 per cent is worth par—the total market value of American railroad stocks would be $4,570,603,260, or more than half the par value of the bonds. In other words, the bonded debt would represent something less than 63 per cent of the total market value of the property. This compares favorably with the security of first mortgages upon real estate.
When the safety of interest is considered, the showing made is equally strong. Page 82 of the report above quoted shows that the net income of the railroads of the United States for the year ended June 30, 1906, after payment of all operating expenses, was $848,836,771, and the total fixt charges, including interest on bonds, interest on current liabilities, and taxes, amounted to $391,776,445, leaving a balance available for dividends of $457,060,326. It is apparent, therefore, that the net earnings of the railroads of the United States, considered as one system, could be cut in half without affecting the payment of interest upon the railroad's obligations. This affords a large measure of protection.
The following analysis shows that the actual market value of the railroads is probably greater than the estimate made above.
The table shows the percentage of bonded debt to total market value of some of the more important railroad systems. Two trunk lines in the East, a north and south line in the middle West, and two transcontinental have been chosen. No attempt has been made to select railroads which would make a favorable showing. Indeed Pennsylvania, and Union Pacific, by reason of their recent heavy bond issues, probably compare unfavorably with others which might have been chosen. The figures showing the par value of bonds outstanding have been taken from last annual reports, with additions made for recent issues. The figures showing the market value of stocks are based on the amounts outstanding April 1st, 1908, at the market price.
| Par value of bonds outstanding | Approx. market value of stock outstanding | Per cent of bonds to total value | |
| Pennsylvania | $270,974,645 | $361,000,000 | 42.8 |
| New York Central | 255,414,845 | 174,000,000 | 59.4 |
| Illinois Central | 156,053,275 | 120,000,000 | 56.6 |
| Great Northern | 207,517,939 | 260,000,000 | 44.3 |
| Union Pacific | 274,827,000 | 324,000,000 | 45.9 |
In view of the enormous decline which has occurred in railroad stocks during the past eighteen months, the showing above is truly remarkable. It is plain that the entire bonded debt of any of these standard railroads is less than 60 per cent of the total market value of the property, while in the cases of the Pennsylvania, Great Northern, and Union Pacific, more than half of the present market value of the property could be erased before the lien of the bonds least well secured would be impaired.
Of course, where the entire bonded debt is protected by such a margin, it is evident that the underlying bonds (the prior liens and first mortgages) are protected by several times as great a margin and their position is correspondingly strengthened.
The foregoing analysis, in the judgment of the writer, affords convincing proof not only that the prevailing want of confidence in railroad obligations is without foundation, but that railroad bonds compare favorably in point of safety with any other form of investment.
It remains to point out the amount of income and degree of convertibility which they afford and the extent of appreciation in value which they promise. It is impossible to do more than indicate the general characteristics of railroad bonds in these particulars.