6. WILL THE PROPOSED PLAN BE A POLITICAL BENEFIT OR DETRIMENT? If a plan is of such far-reaching significance that its adoption or rejection would affect a whole town, state, or nation, then its merits usually depend to some extent upon its political significance. The issue may take some such form as, "How will the system affect the country politically?" "Will the system encourage bribery and graft, or will it tend to do away with these evils?" "What will be its effect upon bossism?"
7. HOW HAS THE PLAN SUCCEEDED WHERE IT HAS BEEN TRIED? This question frequently occurs as an issue in connection with all sorts of propositions. Its importance and significance are so evident that no explanation is needed. The value of precedent is known to every one.
8. DOES THE PRESENT SYSTEM CONTAIN SERIOUS EVILS? The asking of this question is frequently one of the very best ways to get at the heart of a proposition of policy. To be sure, this question overlaps and embraces several other questions that have been suggested, but a comprehensive issue like this is sometimes preferable from the standpoint both of the arguer and of the audience. It removes from the arguer the necessity of classifying each evil under the head of moral, financial, intellectual, etc.; and in many cases it results in an argument more easily understood by the audience. In some form this issue applies to nearly all political, economic, and financial propositions.
9. IF THE PRESENT SYSTEM DOES CONTAIN SERIOUS EVILS, WILL THE PROPOSED SYSTEM REMOVE THEM? Equal in importance with the question as to whether the existing system is defective, is the question as to whether the proposed system will remove these defects, without, of course, introducing equally great disadvantages. These two issues almost invariably go together; they set the system advocated by the affirmative and the system advocated by the negative side by side, and compare and contrast each with the other.
10. IF THE PRESENT SYSTEM CONTAINS SERIOUS EVILS, IS THE PROPOSED SYSTEM THE ONLY REMEDY? This last question is very closely connected with the two preceding questions. The whole discussion may hinge not on whether evils exist, but on how they shall be remedied. If the argument takes this turn, the advocates of a certain system must show that their plan is the only one suitable for adoption, or, at least, is the best plan, while the negative must introduce and uphold a totally different scheme. For instance, under the proposition, "The United States army should be greatly enlarged," the first two issues would probably be these: "Is the present army adequate to protect the nation?" and "Is the enlargement of the army the only means of rendering the nation safe from invasion?"
PROPOSITIONS OF FACT.
1. DOES THE PROPOSITION STATE A POSSIBLE TRUTH? To find the issues of a proposition of fact, first ask whether the occurrence in question could have happened or the condition alleged in the proposition could possibly have existed. This question is so important that if it can conclusively be answered in the negative the discussion is ended. Legal proceedings invariably center around some form of a proposition of fact. In the criminal court a man to prove his innocence has only to establish an alibi or prove physical inability to commit the crime with which he is charged. Not always, of course, does the question of possibility constitute an issue, since frequently the possibility is admitted. Such would be the case if the following propositions came up for discussion: "Joan of Arc was burned at the stake"; "Nero was guilty of burning Rome." In these instances possibility gives way to probability.
2. DOES THE PROPOSITION STATE A PROBABLE TRUTH? If the question of possibility has been answered affirmatively or inconclusively, the issue of probability next arises. In connection with many propositions of fact this is the most important issue to be encountered. Unless a condition or an event—its possibility being admitted—can be affirmed or denied by reliable witnesses who testify from their own personal knowledge of the matter, the most that any arguer can do is to establish a balance of probability. Those who believe that Bacon wrote the plays attributed to Shakespeare try to show how improbable it is that a man like Shakespeare could have produced such works, and how very likely it is that Bacon was the real author. Many criminals are convicted or acquitted on evidence that establishes merely a strong probability of guilt or of innocence.
3. IS THERE ANY DIRECT EVIDENCE BEARING ON THE PROPOSITION? In the third place, a person who is trying to prove or disprove a proposition of fact must consider the direct evidence involved. Indirect evidence tends to establish the possibility or probability that a statement is true or false, while direct evidence asserts that it is true or false. Direct evidence on the question, "Country roads in New England are inferior to those of the Middle West," would not be a description of the topographical and geographical features of both regions, for this information could at its best establish only a strong probability; direct evidence on this subject would be the testimony of people who have investigated the roads, and could thus speak from direct personal knowledge.
This issue of direct evidence has two phases. The arguer must ask, "Is any direct evidence available?" and "If there is any, what is its value?" It is easily seen that not all evidence is equally reliable. Both the man and what he says must be tested: the man for such qualities as truthfulness, intelligence, and experience; the statements for consistency and general credibility. The tests of evidence are given in detail in another chapter.