Porter grinned despite his weariness. "No, Oak, is not manufacturing time machines."
"I am still in gross ignorance. If anybody is capable of truly predicting the future on the basis of ten percent accuracy, he'd put the insurance companies out of business—unless they hired him."
"The future, in some senses, can be predicted," said Porter.
"Only on a statistical basis," answered Wright. "The prediction that tomorrow will arrive at precisely such and such an instant is a prediction based upon the statistical experience gained by several thousand years. So is the prediction of what will happen when sulphuric acid and potassium nitrate are mixed. But an accident, sir, is unpredictable by definition. Therefore he who can predict an accident is a true prognosticator who needs no statistical experience to bolster up his forecasting."
"Wright, this argument gets nowhere. It, incidentally, is why Delinge always handled the Oak contract. He knew, and there was never an argument. No, I'll tell you no more, Wright. You'll be incredulous anyway until you've seen it in person. Eventually, you'll understand."
"I doubt it," replied Peter. "Seems to me that there are a couple of very obvious factors. One, if an accident can be predicted, it can also be avoided. Two, if such an accident is foreseen and nothing is done about trying to avert it, then it is a matter of gross negligence and the contract may be voided on those grounds."
"With but one exception to your statements, I agree," said Porter. "The accident that will take place at eight o'clock has already happened."
"What you really mean is," said Peter Wright, more by way of question than by statement, "is that the accident has occurred but will not become evident until eight?"
"I'd hate to try to explain it in a few words. Let us try by analogy. A man atop of the mountain sees an avalanche start toward a railroad track. The avalanche takes out the track, preventing a meeting between two emissaries on a vital question. The vital question is not settled, and two countries go to war. In the war, one country discovers a means of nullifying gravity, which after the war is used to start interplanetary travel. Several years after interplanetary travel starts, the rare metals are discovered in plenty and the cost of shipping is such that the monetary system fails and the system enters a trying period of depression. Now, could you, a man suffering because of the depression, go back and turn aside the avalanche?"
"No, but I fail to see the connection."