'There is still a considerable amount of fetish-worship, but the ideas upon which any commercial union must rest will not in future incur the furious and unswerving hostility that would have greeted them twenty years ago. It is getting to be understood that Free Trade is made for man, not man for Free Trade, and any changes that may be proposed will have a better chance of being discussed upon their own merits rather than in the light of high-and-dry theory backed by outcries of the thin edge of the wedge. The British Empire is so large and so completely self-supporting, that it could very well afford, for the sake of serious political gain, to surround itself with a moderate fence.'
And again, discussing a resolution passed in the Dominion House of Commons in favour of preferential trade with Great Britain, the same journal has lately said:—
'We have not disguised our opinion that if the colonies as a whole, and without arrière pensée, were prepared to enter into a Customs Union with the mother-country on mutually advantageous terms, there would be a strong body of public opinion in favour of meeting the offer, if possible, even at the cost of some departure from the rigorous doctrines of Free Trade. … If, by not too great a departure from the strict lines of Free Trade, it were possible to bind the great self-governing colonies in close {285} and permanent commercial alliance with the mother country, securing not only a vast reserve of political strength but the command of large and rapidly growing markets, it would probably be thought well worth while to incur some sacrifice. When nations like the United States, Russia, and France are strengthening their exclusive systems against us, and when central Europe is involved in a network of commercial treaties, it is not pleasant to contemplate the possibility that, under protective tariffs of increasing stringency, our colonial trade may slip from us, and the political allegiance of our colonial subjects may be gradually broken down.'
In expressions such as these, which might be multiplied, those who advocate a return to preferential trade relations within the Empire find proof of a great change in English public opinion. But after all has been said that can be said it is clear to any unprejudiced observer that on the whole an overwhelming majority of the people of the United Kingdom still sincerely regard free trade with all the world as necessary to the welfare of the masses, and to the stability of the vast industries of the country. No political party would as yet dare to face an election on a platform of Protection or Fair Trade. The reason is obvious. Dependence on sources of food supply outside the Empire is still so great that any change of policy would be thought to involve great risk and anxiety. Though a few years of strenuous effort would doubtless make the Empire self-sufficing in the {286} matter of food, still those few years of transition would be a critical period. Clear thinkers outside of the United Kingdom recognize this. It is well known how strongly Sir John Macdonald held the opinion that the Empire would be strengthened and drawn together by preferential trade between its different communities. Yet he said to me in 1889: 'Till England sees that we can feed her or with a little encouragement can do so, we must not expect to work out Federation on a trade basis. But as soon as we have proved what our North West can do and English people see that they can get all the wheat they want from ourselves and the other colonies, the English point of view, will change, and trade advantage can be made to supplement the other forces which make for British unity.' Sir Charles Tupper argues for immediate discrimination, but he as fully recognizes that it should not affect the prices of food for the vast masses which, in England, depend on outside supplies.
He has given illustrations which he thinks indicate that a fiscal arrangement which favours the productions of the colonies would not result in raising the price of food materially in Great Britain, while it would give stimulus to colonial industry and increase the colonial market for British manufactures to the great advantage of the British working man.
He points out that the Mark Lane prices of corn during the year 1890 and 1891, as shown by the report of the Board of Agriculture, indicate a fluctuation {287} in price of ten shillings a quarter, and it was only when the maximum advance of ten shillings a quarter was reached that a half-penny difference was made upon the four-pound loaf. From this fact he draws the conclusion that five shillings a quarter could be imposed upon foreign wheat without making any appreciable advance in the price of bread.
A second illustration he draws from the meat supply. In consequence of the existence of pleuro-pneumonia in the United States, cattle sent from that country to Great Britain have to be slaughtered upon their arrival, while the freedom of Canada from the disease exempts Canadian cattle from this regulation. The advantage given to Canada by this distinction is estimated by Mr. Rush, the highest American authority upon the subject, at between eight and twelve dollars a head. The result has been an immense expansion of this trade for Canada, which last year sent 123,000 head of cattle to England, for which Canadian stock raisers would receive about a million dollars more than Americans would obtain for the same number of cattle, while Sir Charles Tupper claims that no one has even suggested that any difference has thereby been made in the price of meat. Lastly, he points to the experience of France and Germany, where, after a much higher duty had been imposed on corn, the cost of bread was less than before[1].
{288}
But if the price of wheat be not changed, what, it is asked, will be the advantage to the colonies, and what is to be the compensation to the mother-country for making the change?
The colonial advantage will come from the new direction given to emigration. The great numbers of emigrants who now go under a foreign flag to produce the grain and other food which the United Kingdom buys will go to British countries where they will enjoy the advantage of the easier access to British markets and by so doing will add to the wealth and strength of the colonies and the Empire.