Recession above the present position of the Falls—The Falls will be higher as they recede—Reason why—Professor Tyndall's prediction—Present and former accumulations of rock—Terrific power of the elements—Ice and ice bridges—Remarkable geognosy of the lake region.
There is probably little foundation for the apprehension which has been expressed that the recession of the chasm will ultimately reach Lake Erie and lower its level, or that the bed of the river will be worn into an inclined plane by gradual detrition, thus changing the perpendicular Fall into a tumultuous rapid. And for these reasons: The contour or arc of the Fall in its present location is much greater than it could have been at any point below. Consequently a much smaller body of water, less effective in force, is passed over any given portion of the precipice, the current being also divided by Goat and Luna islands. Also, the river bed increases in width above the Fall until it reaches Grand Island, which, being twelve miles in length by eight in width, divides the river into two broad channels, thus still further diminishing the weight and force of the falling water. The average width of the channel from Lewiston upward is one thousand feet. The present curve formed by the Falls and islands is four thousand two hundred feet. Of course the water concentrated in mass and force below the present Falls must have proved vastly more effective in disintegrating and breaking down the shale and limestone than it possibly can be at any point above. After receding half a mile further the curve will be more than a mile in extent, and hold this length for two additional miles, provided the water shall cover the bed-rock from shore to shore.
In reference to this recession, Professor Tyndall, in the closing paragraph of a lecture on Niagara, delivered before the Royal Institute, after his return to England, says: "In conclusion, we may say a word regarding the proximate future of Niagara. At the rate of excavation assigned to it by Sir Charles Lyell, namely, a foot a year, five thousand years will carry the Horseshoe Fall far higher than Goat Island. As the gorge recedes * * * it will totally drain the American branch of the river, the channel of which will in due time become cultivatable land. * * * To those who visit Niagara five millenniums hence, I leave the verification of this prediction." In his "Travels in the United States," in 1841-2, vol. 1, page 27, Sir Charles Lyell says: "Mr. Bakewell calculated that, in the forty years preceding 1830, the Niagara had been going back at the rate of about a yard annually, but I conceive that one foot per year would be a more probable conjecture."
Thus it appears that the rate suggested was the result of a conjecture founded on a guess. From certain oral and written statements which we have been able to collect, we have made an estimate of the time which was required to excavate the present chasm-channel from Lewiston upward. During the last hundred and seventy-five years certain masses of rock have been known to fall from the water-covered surface of the cataract, and a statement as to the surface-measure of each mass was made. In using these data it is supposed that each break extended to the bottom of the precipice, although the whole mass did not fall at once. Of course, the substructure must have worn out before the superstructure could have gone down. Father Hennepin says that the projection of the rock on the American side was so great that "four coaches" could "drive abreast" beneath it. Seven years later, Baron La Hontan, referring to the Canadian side, says "three men" could "cross in abreast." We cannot assign less than twenty-four feet to the four coaches moving abreast. The projection on the Canadian side has diminished but little, whereas the overhang on the American side has almost entirely fallen, as is abundantly shown by the huge pile of large bowlders now lying at the foot of the precipice. Authentic accounts of similar abrasions are the following: In 1818, a mass one hundred and sixty feet long by sixty feet wide; and later in the same year a huge mass, the top surface of which was estimated at half an acre. If this estimate was correct, it would show an abrasion equivalent to nearly one foot of the whole surface of the Canadian Fall. In 1829 two other masses, equal to the first that fell in 1818, went down. In 1850 there fell a smaller mass, about fifty feet long and ten feet wide. In 1852, a triangular mass fell, which was about six hundred feet long, extending south from Goat Island beyond the Terrapin Tower, and having an average width of twenty feet. Here we have approximate data on which to base our calculations. In addition to these, it is supposed that there have been unobserved abrasions by piecemeal that equaled all the others. Combining these minor masses into one grand mass and omitting fractions, the result is a bowlder containing something more than twelve million cubic feet of rock. If this were spread over a surface one thousand feet wide and one hundred and sixty feet deep—about the average width and depth of the Falls below the ferry—it would make a block about seventy-eight feet thick. This, for one hundred and seventy-five years, is a little over five inches a year. At this rate, to cut back six miles—the present length of the chasm—would require nearly sixty thousand years, or ten thousand years for a single mile, a mere shadow of time compared with the age of the coralline limestone over which the water flows. So, if this estimate is reasonably correct, two millenniums will be exhausted before Professor Tyndall's prophecy can be fulfilled.
As to the "entire drainage of the American branch" of the river, we must be incredulous when we consider the fact that the bottom of that branch, two and a half miles above the Falls, is thirty-two feet higher than the upper surface of the water where it goes over the cliff, and that there is a continuous channel the whole distance varying from twelve to twenty feet in depth; and the further fact that, in the great syncope of the water which occurred in 1848, the topography, so to speak, of the river bottom was clearly revealed. It showed that the water was so divided, half a mile above the rapids, as to form a huge Y, through both branches of which it flowed over the precipice below, thus showing that nothing but an entire stoppage of the water can leave the American channel dry. But even if this part of Professor Tyndall's prediction should be verified, it is to be feared that his "vision" of "cultivatable land" in the case supposed will prove to be visionary. "To complete my knowledge," says Professor Tyndall, "it was necessary to see the Fall from the river below it, and long negotiations were necessary to secure the means of doing so. The only boat fit for the undertaking had been laid up for the winter, but this difficulty * * * was overcome." Two oarsmen were obtained. The elder assumed command, and "hugged" the cross-freshets instead of striking out into the smoother water. I asked him why he did so; he replied that they were directed outward and not downward. If Professor Tyndall had been at Niagara during the summer season, he would have had the opportunity, daily, of seeing the Fall "from below," and of going up or down the river on any day in a boat. All the boats (four) at the ferry are "fit for the undertaking," and all of them are, very properly, "laid up in the winter," since they would be crushed by the ice if left in the water. The oarsmen do not consider themselves very shrewd because they have discovered that it is easier to row across a current than to row against it. The party had an exciting and, according to Professor Tyndall's account, a perilous trip. It is an exciting trip to a stranger, but the writer has made it so frequently that it has ceased to be a novelty.
Niagara Falls from Below
"We reached," he says, "the Cave [of the Winds] and entered it, first by a wooden way carried over the bowlders, and then along a narrow ledge to the point eaten deepest into the shale." He also speaks of the "blinding hurricane of spray hurled against" him. This last circumstance, probably, prevented him from noticing the fact that no shale is visible in the Cave of the Winds. Its wall from the top downward, some distance beneath the place where he stood, is formed entirely of the Niagara limestone. But it is checkered by many seams, and is easily abraded by the elements.
Long-continued observation of the locality enables the writer to offer still other reasons why the Fall will never dwindle down to a rapid. As has already been noticed, the course of the river above the present Falls is a little south of west, so that it flows across the trend of the bed-rock. Hence, as the Falls recede there can be no diminution in their altitude resulting from the dip of this rock. On the contrary, there is a rise of fifty feet to the head of the present rapids, and a further rise of twenty feet to the level of Lake Erie. During 1871-2, the bed of the river from Buffalo to Cayuga Creek was thoroughly examined for the purpose of locating piers for railway bridges over the stream. The greatest depth at which they found the rock—just below Black Rock dam—was forty-five feet. Generally the rock was found to be only twenty to twenty-five feet below the surface of the water.