"To obtain full and complete agreement it is first of all necessary that I should be empowered to publish in full those instructions given to our submarine commanders in so far as these were not given in my previous summaries on the matter. If we still consider ourselves bound to maintain that the officer concerned in the Arabic case was only obeying orders, we can never hope to come to an agreement, for no one can possibly feel any confidence in the sincerity of our intentions. In the meantime I shall try to reach a settlement on the matters now in dispute by means of arbitration. Finally, the question of compensation must, in accordance with my instructions for the Lusitania case, be referred to the Hague Tribunal.
"I am quite certain that if we fail to reach an agreement, severance of diplomatic relations cannot but follow.
"Lansing will not reply to the Arabic memorandum, and, as I said before, will conduct the diplomatic exchanges on this matter only through me. He considers this as the only possible course on the ground that Wilson and I are alike committed to the policy of 'the freedom of the seas.'
"Finally, I may observe that everyone here would be much gratified if we could see our way to extend the scope of our latest instructions to our submarines so as to include all merchant shipping. It is argued that these vessels are slow moving and could easily be warned; the advantage of acting without warning is only of importance in the case of swift passenger ships, which we have, none the less, undertaken not to attack without notice. The suggested proposal, therefore, could not harm us; it would, on the other hand, make us very popular here and give the United States a very strong position in her negotiations with England. Of course, I may be able to effect an agreement without this. The main point in dispute is the verdict on the action of the commander in the Arabic case, because this involves the whole question of our good faith. Anyway, there is no doubt whatever that a second Arabic case is bound to result in war."
(2) Cipher Telegram
"Cedarhurst, September 22nd, 1915.
"As position is still very difficult, I am carrying on conversations in strict confidence through personal friend of Wilson's. Request, therefore, that no directions be sent as regards question of responsibility for Arabic incident, till your Excellency hears again from me. Lansing at present gone on leave. Personally I do not believe that I shall manage to secure International Commission of Inquiry. According to present view, main point of dispute is question of disavowing action of submarine commander. I hope, however, that after reviewing American evidence, your Excellency will be able to find formula for such disavowal, agreeable to both Governments, especially if I can get concurrence of Wilson before press gets hold of it. Request, therefore, that American correspondents in Germany be told nothing more than that American evidence being carefully gone into in Berlin."
(3) Cipher Report
"Cedarhurst, September 28th, 1915.
"The negotiations about the submarine campaign are at a standstill at present. From the fact that Lansing has not been recalled from leave and that President Wilson does not seem over-eager to give an opinion on the proposals which I have put forward for his consideration, I consider myself justified in concluding that the Americans do not consider the situation to be any longer critical. Even the Press is no longer agitated, as in all recent cases of attack by German submarines. Their commanders have acted quite in accordance with our assurances. Under these circumstances Mr. Wilson may possibly fall in with our proposal that the particular case of the Arabic should be dealt with by an International Commission of Inquiry. In any case, some means must be found of finishing once for all with the Arabic and Lusitania incidents; only then shall we be in a position to see whether President Wilson will keep his word, and take energetic measures vis à vis England.