"It now remains to be decided:
"1. Whether after his nomination Wilson would still be prepared to press matters as far as a rupture and war, even if we spare human life in the new submarine war?
"2. What attitude the Republican candidate would adopt on this matter?
"Public opinion in England is opposed to mediation by Wilson, which is also not wanted on principle here, because too unpopular.
"Von Jagow."
I dispatched as quickly as possible to Berlin the following telegram:
Telegram in Cipher
"Washington, 19th June, 1916.
"Assuming that it is intended that the resumption of the submarine campaign be accompanied by the official or clandestine withdrawal of the concessions granted in our Note of the 4th May, such a withdrawal or modification of our concessions would in my opinion lead to a rupture and America's entry into the war. By condoning such a move Wilson would forfeit all hope of being re-elected and Hughes, who is already suspected of being the German candidate, could not afford to recommend a surrender. With regard to mediation and blockade I am in constant communication with House. The former to be expected in course of summer, for election reasons; probably Wilson will inform our enemies that he will have to resort to sharp measures if peace is not attained."
From the orders and telegrams here reproduced I gathered that the political situation was, as far as I was concerned, to be regarded as a kind of race between the unrestricted submarine campaign on the one hand and the American peace mediation on the other. There was apparently no third possibility.