My reader who may have mastered the facts of the geography will call to mind the intimate connection of the system of tablelands with one another from the borders of India to the Mediterranean. The capital of Persia and her greatest cities are situated upon the tableland; and I cannot conceive that the empire of the Shahs could long maintain its independence after Russia had become possessed of Turkish Armenia. Not less certain would be the fate of Asia Minor, west of the Euphrates; and, indeed, in the contingency which we are discussing, the German Empire might be well advised to bargain away the important railways which she has recently constructed in that country in return for substantial advantages elsewhere. As regards England, I cannot admit, after careful consideration, that the loss to her trade of Turkish Armenia and the presence of Russia on the tableland of Persia would necessarily endanger India. Such a consummation—regrettable as it must be, and avoidable as I believe it is—would deal a hard blow at her trade in the south. But one has to face that common sentiment of which I have spoken, and the corresponding lukewarmness of our rulers in the domain of Asiatic affairs.
It would be a very different thing if we were to suffer any encroachment on the part of Russia upon the zone of mountains supporting on the south the tablelands of Armenia and Persia, and drawn like a long succession of chevaux de frise around the lowlands of Mesopotamia. Her occupation of any part of that zone of mountains would necessarily entail sooner or later the occupation of the whole. The lowlands themselves, the field of our trade, and appointed by Nature as a granary for India with her teeming millions and uncertain harvests, would be at her mercy without striking a blow. Distance is a factor of little importance on the lowlands; they are flat as the sea, and traversed from one end to the other by two magnificent navigable rivers. A Power stationed at Diarbekr is already stationed on the Persian Gulf, with a country of immense potential wealth at her back. For these reasons it would be well that we should recognise as soon as possible that the bedrock of British policy in the Nearer Asia should be the preservation of the integrity of the lowlands with their frame of mountains from Syria to the borders of India.
The conclusion at which I arrive is that the possession by Russia of Turkish Armenia would be attended by consequences which have scarcely been appreciated at all by the majority of my countrymen. I would fain hope that, if this event be indeed inevitable, it may not take us by surprise. Our own path is clearly indicated by the finger of Nature; and the Russian Empire, established in Armenia, would be quite as accessible to attack from the lowlands as our Indian Empire to hostile approach on the side of Asiatic Russia. But in order to safeguard our interests and provide for future contingencies we must accustom ourselves to think a little ahead. It will not be sufficient to beat time, and endeavour to entice Germany into our own particular domain. As a natural commercial ally in her own field of Asia Minor, that Power may render assistance to the common cause. As a competitor in our sphere she would be very much more likely to make her own terms with the northern Empire. Finally—for after all it is as much a question of men as of measures—I should like to contribute my vote as a traveller—whatever it may be worth—in favour of a proposal recently made by a well-informed writer. And the only amendment which one might desire to the proposition he has well expressed is that it should be accompanied by a recognition of what our Foreign Office has already accomplished with the imperfect system which it at present dispenses:—“The machinery of the Foreign Office is not adjusted to perform the new and strange duties which belong to Oriental diplomacy. The ministers and secretaries who are competent officials in Vienna or Rome are lost among the tortuous political pathways of Bangkok, Teheran and Pekin. Never shall we hold our own in Asia until an Asiatic Department is formed, under the charge of an experienced minister of Cabinet rank, with an independent diplomatic staff, trained in the methods, and speaking fluently the languages of the East.”[26]
[1] See Blue-book, Turkey, No. 6, 1881, p. 127. [↑]
[2] The clause in the Berlin Treaty relating to the Armenians is as follows:—Article 61. “La sublime Porte s’engage à réaliser sans plus de retard les améliorations et les réformes qu’exigent les besoins locaux dans les provinces habitées par les Arméniens et à garantir leur sécurité contre les Circassiens et les Kurdes. Elle donnera connaissance périodiquement des mesures prises à cet effet aux puissances qui en surveilleront l’application.”
The Armenian delegates to the Berlin Congress presented a memoir to the European Plenipotentiaries in which they set forth their cause. It is published by De la Jonquière in his Histoire de l’Empire Ottoman, Paris, 1881, pp. 39–44. They also drew out a project for an Organic Regulation to be applied to the new province. It was to be administered by an Armenian Governor-General appointed by the Porte with the consent of the Powers. [↑]
[3] The statistics of population were supplied by the Patriarch Nerses to Mr. Goschen. They may be found in Blue-book, Turkey, No. 23, 1880, p. 274. Mr. Goschen, writing to Lord Granville on 15th July 1880, says: “My strong feeling is that the Powers cannot commit themselves to any plan until they know the real facts about the population. It would not do to build on a mistaken basis, and I feel convinced that no one has sure ground. The Patriarch’s figures are as exaggerated as those of the Porte on the other side. Again, how to deal with the nomad Kurds? All must depend on the physical force of the two different races and religions. If the Armenians should be in a minority it will be dangerous to give them the same institutions which we should give if they were in a majority, dangerous to themselves” (Blue-book, Turkey, No. 6, 1881, p. 16). And, again, in another despatch of 23rd July: “With regard to the actual project of reforms, the letter of the Patriarch is conceived in such vague phrases that but little advantage is to be derived from it in elucidating the problem to be solved” (ibid. p. 20). [↑]
[4] See Lord Granville’s despatch, 10th February 1881: “In consequence of the objections raised by the German Government, Mr. Goschen will not be instructed to put forward the Armenian Question immediately on his return to Constantinople.” [↑]
[5] The figures for the town and merkez-caza of Van are based on my own knowledge. Those for the other cazas of Van sanjak are the Turkish official figures for 1890, except in the case of Adeljivas caza, where I have substituted a private estimate. [↑]