(4) Increase in the utilitarian need of the automobile.
In making up a quota for the possible consumption in the automobile industry, the following chart may be considered as a conservative basis to work on.
The following chart shows the estimated automobile market for 1917:
There being, therefore so many elements entering into the question of influence upon this group of securities, it is rather venturesome to presume any prediction for their future, for fear such prediction may prove unfounded, as have many former guesses on their probable rise and fall.
The immediate outlook for 1917 is at present somewhat baffling, aside from the economic tendencies, charted in this chapter, but there may be a change for improvement at any time in the motor car industry, especially if our government should place large orders for cars and supplies in the event of war, or the foreign trade should take on large quantities for the remainder of the year.
It must be remembered that the supply of parts for cars is now, and will be more and more, an extensive business of the motor car industry.
One prominent New York newspaper which censors very carefully its advertising is very cautious in handling offerings on motor stocks.
It might be safe to assume that motor stocks in well managed companies making popular cars will be as secure an investment for reasonable earnings on products as other industrials for some years to come and possibly indefinitely.
The future of automobile accessories is possibly not subject to fluctuations in the same degree, nor as apt to reach the saturation point as might be the development in the automobile industry, for the reason that with the increase in the number of cars in use, the purchase of many accessories will be made by car owners, even though the manufacturers should not continue to buy an increasing, or even equal, volume.