War-Time Financial Problems

by Hartley Withers

Reform of the Companies Acts has often before the war been a more or less burning question. Whenever the public thought that it had been swindled by the company promoting machinery, it used to write letters to the newspapers and point out that it was a scandal that the sharks of the City should be allowed to prey upon the ignorant public, and that something ought to be done by Parliament to insure that investments offered to the public should somehow or other be made absolutely watertight and safe, while by some unexplained method the public would still be somehow able to derive large benefits from fortunate speculations in enterprises which turned out right. Every one must admit there have been some black pages in the history of British company promoting, and that many swindles have been perpetrated by which the public has lost its money and dishonest and third-rate promoters have retired with the spoil. The question is, however, what is the remedy for this admitted and glaring evil? Is it to be found by making the Companies Laws so strict that no respectable citizen would venture to become a director owing to the fear of penal servitude if the company on whose board he sat did not happen to pay a dividend, and that no prospectus could be issued except in the case of a concern which had already stood so severe a test that its earning capacity was placed beyond doubt? It would certainly be possible by legislative enactment to make any security that was offered as safe as Consols, and less subject to fluctuation in value. But when this had been done the effect would be very much like the effect upon rabbits of the recent fixing of their price. No more securities would be offered.

It is certainly extremely important for the future financial and industrial development of this country that the machinery of finance and company promotion should be made as clean as possible. What we want to do is to make everybody see that a great increase in output is required, that this great increase in output can only be brought about if there is a great increase in the available amount of capital, that capital can only be brought into being by being saved, and that it is therefore everybody's business, both for his own sake and that of the country, to earn as much as he can and save as much as he can so that the country's capital fund can be increased; so that industry, which will have many difficult problems to face when the war is over, shall be as far as possible relieved from any difficulty of finding all the capital that it needs. To produce these results it is highly necessary to increase the confidence of the public in the machinery of the Stock Exchange, in company promotion and all financial issues. Any one who sincerely believes that these results can be produced by tightening up the Companies Acts is not only entitled but bound to press as hard as he can for the securing of this object. But is this the right way to do it? There is much to be said at first sight for making more strict the regulations under which prospectuses have to be issued under the Companies Acts, demanding a franker statement of the profits in the past, a fuller statement concerning the prices paid to vendors, and the prices paid by vendors to sub-vendors, and so forth. Any one who sits down with a pre-war industrial prospectus in his hand can find many openings for the hand of the reformer. The accounts published by public companies might also be made fuller and more informing with advantage. But even if these obviously beneficial reforms were carried out, there would always be danger of their evasion. They might tend to the placing of securities by hole-and-corner methods without the issue of prospectuses at all, and to all the endless devices for dodging the law which are so readily provided as soon as any attempt is made by legislation to go too far ahead of public education and public feeling.

This is the real solution of this problem—publicity, the education of the public, and a higher ideal among financiers. As long as the public likes to speculate and is greedy and ignorant enough to be taken in by the wiles of the fraudulent promoter, attempts by legislation to check this gentleman's enterprise will be defeated by his ingenuity and the public's eagerness to be gulled. The ignorance of the public on the subject of its investments is abysmal, as anybody knows who is brought into practical touch with it. Just as the cure for the production of rotten and fraudulent patent medicines thrust down the public's throat by assiduous advertising is the education of the public concerning the things of its stomach, so the real cure for financial swindles is the education of the public concerning money matters, and its recognition of the fact that it is impossible to make a fortune in the City without running risks which involve the possible, not to say probable, loss of all the money with which the speculator starts. When once the public has learnt to distinguish between a speculation and an investment, and has also learnt honesty enough to be able to know whether it wants to speculate or invest, it will have gone much further towards checking the activity of the fraudulent promoter than any measure that can be recommended by the most respectable and industrious of committees. At the same time, it must be recognised by those responsible for our finance, that it is their business, and their interest, to keep the City's back premises clean; because insanitary conditions in the back yard raise a stink which fouls the whole City.

In the meantime, if gossip is to be believed, some of the members of the Government have the most disquieting intentions concerning the kind of regulations which they wish to impose on the activities of the City, especially in its financial branch. It is believed that some of the bright young gentlemen who now rule us are in favour of Government control over the investment of money placed at home, and the prohibition of the issue of foreign securities; and it is even whispered that a fantastic scheme for controlling the profits of all industrial companies, by which anything earned above a certain level is to be seized for the benefit of the nation, is now a fashionable project in influential Parliamentary circles. Every one must, of course, admit that a certain amount of control will be necessary for some time after the war. It may not be possible at once to throw open the London Money Market to all borrowers, leaving them and it to decide between them who is to be first favoured with a supply of the capital for which there will be so large a demand when the war is over. Certain industries, those especially on which our export trade depends, will have to be first served in the matter of the provision of capital. If it is a choice between the engineering or shipbuilding trades and a company that wants to start an aeroplane service between London and Brighton for the idle rich, it would not be reasonable, during the first few months after the war, that the unproductive project should be able, by bidding a high price for capital, to forestall the demand of the more useful producer. And with regard to the issue of foreign securities, there is this to be said, that foreign securities placed in London have the same effect upon foreign exchange as the import into England of goods shipped from any country; that is to say, for the time being they turn the exchange against us. On the other hand, it is a well-known commonplace that imports of securities have to be balanced by exports of goods or services; and as the times when our export trade is most active are those when most foreign securities are being placed in London, it follows that any restrictions placed upon the issue of foreign securities in London will hinder rather than help that recovery in our export trade which is so essential to the restoration of our position as a creditor country.

Moreover, our rulers must remember this, that in War-time, when all the letters sent abroad are subject to the eye of the Censor, it is possible to control the export of British funds abroad; but that in peace time (unless the censorship is to continue), it will not be possible to check foreign investment by restricting the issuing of foreign securities in London. If people see better rates to be earned abroad and more favourable prospects offered by the price of securities on foreign Stock Exchanges, they will invest abroad, whether securities are issued in London or not. As for the curious suggestion that the profits of industrial companies are henceforward to be limited and the whole balance above a statutory rate to be taken over by the State for the public good, this would be, in effect, the continuance on stricter lines of the Excess Profits Duty. As a war measure the Excess Profits Duty has much to be said for it at a time when the Government, by its inflationary policy, is putting large windfalls of profit into the hands of most people who have to hold a stock of goods and have only to hold them to see them rise in value. The argument that the State should take back a large proportion of this artificially produced profit is sound enough; but, if it is really to be the case that industry is to be asked for the future to take all the risk of enterprise and handover all the profit above a certain level to the Government, the reply of industry to such a proposition would inevitably be short, emphatic, unprintable, and by no means productive of revenue to the State.

VIII

THE YEAR'S BALANCE-SHEET

April, 1918

The Figures of the National Budget—A Large Increase in Revenue and a Larger in Expenditure—Comparisons with Last Year and with the Estimates—The Proportions borne by Taxation still too Low—The Folly of our Policy of Incessant Borrowing—Its Injustice to the Fighting Men.

At first sight the figures of revenue and expenditure for the year ending March 31st are extremely satisfactory, at any rate on the revenue side. The Chancellor anticipated a year ago a revenue from taxation and State services of £638 millions, and the receipts into the Exchequer on these accounts actually amount to £707 millions. On the expenditure side, however, the increase over the Budget estimate was very much greater. The estimate was £2290 millions, and the actual amount expended was £2696 millions. Instead, therefore, of a deficit of £1652 millions having to be met by borrowing, there was an actual gap, to be filled by this method, of, roughly, £1990 millions.