War-Time Financial Problems

by Hartley Withers

So far, however, we have only considered the needs of man for currency; that is to say, for a medium of exchange for the time being. It is obvious, however, that any commodity which fulfils this function, that is to say, is normally taken in payment in the exchange of commodities and services, also necessarily acquires a still more important duty, that is, it becomes a standard of value, and it is on the alleged failure of gold to meet the requirements of the standard of value that the present attack upon it is based. On this point the defenders of the gold standard will find a good deal of difficulty in discovering anything but a negative defence. The ideal standard of value is one which does not vary, and it cannot be contended that gold from this point of view has shown any approach to perfection in fulfilling this function. It could only do so if the supply of it available as currency could by some miracle be kept in constant relation with, the supply of all other commodities and services that are being produced by mankind. That it should be constant with each one of them is, of course, obviously impossible, since the rate at which, for example, wheat and pig-iron are being produced necessarily varies from time to time as compared with one another. Variations in the price of wheat and pig-iron are thus inevitable, but it can at least be claimed by idealists in currency matters that some form of currency might possibly be devised, the amount of which might always be in agreement with the amount of the total output of saleable goods, in the widest sense of the word, that is being created for man's use.

It need not be said that this desirability of a constant agreement between the volume of currency and the volume of goods coming forward for exchange is based on what is called the quantitative theory of money. This theory is still occasionally called in question, but is on the whole accepted by most economists of to-day, and seems to me to be a mere arithmetical truism if we only make the meaning of the word "currency" wide enough; that is to say, if we define it as including all kinds of commodities, including pieces of paper and credit instruments, which are normally accepted in payment for goods and services. This addition of credit instruments, however, is a complication which has considerably confused the problem of gold as the best means of ultimate payment. Taken simply by itself the quantitative theory of money merely says that if money of all kinds is increased more rapidly than goods, then the buying power of money will decline, and the prices of goods will go up and vice versa. This seems to be an obvious truism if we make due allowance for what is called the velocity of circulation. If more money is being produced, but the larger amount is not turned over as rapidly as the currency which was in existence before, then the effect of the increase will inevitably be diminished, and perhaps altogether nullified. But other things being equal, more money will mean higher prices, and less money will mean lower prices.

But, as has been said, the question is very greatly complicated by the addition of credit instruments to the volume of money, and this complication has been made still more complicated by the fact that many economists have refused to regard as money anything except actual metal, or at least such credit instruments as are legal tender, that is to say, have to be taken in payment for commodities, whether the seller wishes to do so or not. For example, many people who are interested in currency questions would regard at the present moment in this country gold, Bank of England notes, Treasury notes, and silver and copper up to their legal limits as money, but would deny this title to cheques. It seems to me, however, that the fact that the cheque is not and cannot be legal tender does not in practice affect or in any way impair the effectiveness of its use as money. As a matter of fact cheques drawn by a good customer of a good bank are received all over the country day by day in payment for an enormous volume of goods. In so far as they are so received, their effect upon prices is exactly the same as that of legal tender currency. This fact is now so generally recognised that the Committee on National Expenditure has called attention to the financing of the war by bank credits as one of the reasons for the inflation of prices which has done so much to raise the cost of the war. It is, in fact, being generally recognised that the power of the bankers to give their customers credits enabling them to draw cheques amounts in fact to an increase in the currency just as much as the power of the Bank of England to print legal tender notes, and the power of the Government to print Treasury notes.

Thus it has happened that by the evolution of the banking system the use of the precious metals as currency has been reinforced and expanded by the printing of an enormous mass of pieces of paper, whether in the form of notes, or in the form of cheques, which economise the use of gold, but have hitherto always been based on the fact that they are convertible into gold on demand, and in fact have only been accepted because of this important proviso. Gold as currency was so convenient and perfect that its perfection has been improved upon by this ingenious device, which prevented its actually passing from hand to hand as currency, and substituted for it an enormous mass of pieces of paper which were promises to pay it, if ever the holders of the paper chose to exercise their power to demand it. By this method gold has been enabled to circulate in the form of paper substitutes to an extent which its actual amount would have made altogether impossible if it had had to do its circulation, so to speak, in its own person. From the application of this great economy to gold two consequences have followed; the first is that the effectiveness of gold as a standard of value has been weakened because this power that banks have given to it of circulating by substitute has obviously depreciated its value by enormously multiplying the effective supply of it. Depreciation in the buying power of money, and a consequent rise in prices, has consequently been a factor which has been almost constantly at work for centuries with occasional reactions, during which the process went the other way. Another consequence has been that people, seeing the ease with which pieces of paper can be multiplied, representing a right to gold which is only in exceptional cases exercised, have proceeded to ask whether there is really any necessity to have gold behind the paper at all, and whether it would not be possible to evolve some ideal form of super-paper which could take the place of gold as the basis of the ordinary paper which is created by the machinery of credit, which would be made exchangeable into it on demand instead of into gold.

It is difficult to say how far the events of the war have contributed to the agitation for the substitution for gold of some other form of international currency. It would seem at first sight that the position of gold at the centre of the credit system has been shaken owing to the fact that in Sweden and some other neutral countries the obligation to receive gold in payment for goods has been for the time being abrogated. The critics of the gold standard are thus enabled to say, "See what has happened to your theory of the universal acceptability of gold. Here are countries which refuse to accept any more gold in payment for goods. They say, 'We do not want your gold any more. We want something that we can eat or make into clothes to put on our backs.'" This is certainly an extremely curious development that is one of the by-products of war's economic lessons. But I do not feel quite sure that it has really taught us anything new. All that has ever been claimed for gold is that it is universally acceptable when men are buying and selling together under more or less normal circumstances. It has always been recognised that a shipwrecked crew on a desert island would be unlikely to exchange the coco-nuts or fish or any other commodities likely to sustain life which they could find, for any gold which happened to be in the possession of any of them, except with a view to their being possibly picked up by a passing ship, and returning to conditions under which gold would reassume its old privilege of acceptability.

During the war the shipping conditions have been such that many countries have been hard put to it, especially if they were contiguous to nations with which the Entente is at present at war, to get the commodities which they needed for their subsistence. The Entente, with its command of the sea, has found it necessary to ration them so that they should have no available surplus to hand on to the enemy. They have very naturally endeavoured to resist these measures, and in order to do so have made use of the power that they exercise by their being in possession of commodities which the Entente desires. They have shown a tendency to say that they would not part with these commodities unless the Entente allowed them to have a larger proportion of things needed for subsistence than the Entente thought necessary for them, and it was as part of this battle for larger imports of necessaries that gold has been to some extent looked upon askance as means of payment, the preference being given to things to eat and wear rather than to the metal. These wholly abnormal circumstances, however, do not seem to me to be any proof that gold will after the war be any less acceptable as a means of payment than before. The Germans are usually credited with considerable sagacity in money matters, with rather more, in fact, I am inclined to think, than they actually possess; they, at any rate, show a very eager desire to collect together and hold on to the largest possible store of gold, obviously with a view to making use of it when the war is over in payment for raw materials, and other commodities of which they are likely to find themselves extremely short. America also has shown a strong tendency to maintain as far as possible within its borders the enormous amount of gold which the early years of the war poured into its hands. While such is the conduct of the chief foreign nations, it is also interesting to note that one comes across a good many people who, in spite of all the admonitions of the Government to all good citizens to pay their gold into the banks, still hold on to a small store of sovereigns in the fear of some chain of circumstances arising in which only gold would be taken in payment for commodities. On the whole, I am inclined to think that the power of gold as a desirable commodity merely because it is believed to be always acceptable has not been appreciably shaken by the events of the war.

This does not alter the fact that, as has been shown above, gold, complicated by the paper which has been based upon it, cannot claim to have risen to full perfection as a standard of value. In primitive times the question of the standard of value hardly arises. Transactions are for the most part carried out and concluded at once, and any seller who takes a piece of metal in payment for his goods does so with the rough knowledge of what that piece of metal will buy for him at the moment, and that is the only point which concerns him. The standard of value only becomes important when under settled conditions of society long-term contracts bulk large in economic transactions. A man who makes an investment which entitles him to 5 per cent. interest, and repayment in 30 years' time, begins to be very seriously interested in the question of what command over commodities his annual income of 5 per cent. will give him, and whether the repayment of his money at the end of 30 years will represent the repayment of anything like the same amount of buying power as his money now possesses. It is here, of course, that gold has failed because, as we have seen, the process has been a fairly steady one of depreciation in the buying power of the alleged standard and a rise in the prices of other commodities. This means to say that the investor who has accepted repayment at the end of 30 years of the amount that he lent, be it £100 or £10,000, has found that the money repaid to him had by no means the same buying power as the money which he originally invested.

Within limits this tendency of the standard of value towards depreciation has possessed considerable advantages, probably much greater advantages than would have followed from the contrary process if it had been the other way round. If we can imagine that the currency history of the world had been such that a constantly diminished quantity of currency in relation to the output of other commodities had caused a steady fall in prices, it is obvious that there might have been a very considerable check to the enthusiasm of industry. It has indeed been contended that the scarcity of precious metals which, with the absence of an organised credit system, produced this result during the later Roman Empire was a very important cause of the decay into which that Empire fell. I do not feel at all convinced that this effect would necessarily have followed the cause. It seems to me that the ingenuity of enterprising man is such that the producer might, and probably would, have found means for facing the probability of depreciation in price. But it is always an empty pastime to try to imagine what would have happened "if things had been otherwise." What we do know is that a period of rising prices, especially if the rise does not go too fast, stimulates the enterprise of producers, and sets business going actively, and consequently it may at least be claimed that the failure of the gold standard to maintain that steadiness of value which is an obvious attribute of the ideal standard has at least been a failure on the right side, by tending to depreciation of the value of currency, and so to a rise of the prices of other commodities. Obviously, people will tuck up their sleeves more readily to the business of production and manufacture if the course of the market in the product which they hope to sell some day is likely to be in their favour rather than against them.

And when all is admitted concerning the failure of the existing standard of value, the question is, what substitute can we find which will carry with it all the advantages that gold has been shown to possess, and at the same time maintain that steadiness of value which gold has certainly lacked? We hear airy talk of an international currency based on the credit of the nations leagued together to promote economic peace. It is certainly very obvious that the diplomatic relations of the world require complete reform, and the system by which the nations at present settle disputes between themselves has been found by the experience of the last four years to be so disgusting, so barbarous and so ridiculous that all the most civilised nations of the world are determined to go on with it until it is stopped for ever. Nevertheless, obvious as it is that some kind of a League of Nations is essential as a form of international police if civilisation is to be rescued from destruction, it is very doubtful whether such an organisation could, at least during the first half-century or so of its existence, be called upon to tackle so difficult a question as that of the creation of an international currency based on international credit. In the first place, what will be required more than anything else after the war in economic matters will be the elimination of all possible reasons for uncertainty; so much uncertainty and difficulty will be inevitable that it seems to me to be almost criminal to add to those uncertainties by an outburst of eloquence on the part of currency reformers if there were any danger of their recommendations being accepted. It will be difficult enough to know where the producers of the world are to get raw material, find efficient labour, and then find a market for their products, without at the same time upsetting their minds with doubts concerning some kind of new-fangled currency that is to be created, and in which they are to be made to accept payment, with the possibilities of changes in the system which may have to be effected owing to some quite unforeseen results happening from its adoption. The gold standard, with all its failures, we do know; we also know that something may be done some day to remedy them if mankind can produce a set of rulers capable of approaching the question with all the knowledge and experience required; but to substitute this system at a time of great uncertainty for one which might or might not work would seem to be tempting Providence in an entirely unnecessary manner at a time when it is above all necessary to get the economic ship as far as possible on an even keel.

If the proposed substitute is to succeed it will have to be at least as acceptable as gold, and at the same time its quantity must be so regulated as to be at all times constant in relation to the output of commodities. Can we pretend that the economic enlightenment of mankind has yet reached a point at which such a currency could be produced and regulated by the Governments of the world and be accepted by their citizens?