In the same period the white population increased
104,762, requiring an immigration from the Northern
slave States to the extent of not less than 45,000,
even allowing more than thirty per cent. for the
natural increase by births. Admitting, now, that for
every family of five free persons there came one
slave, this, would account for………………….. 9,000
And if we take the natural increase of the slave
population at only twenty-five per cent., we have
further………………………………………. 34,000
———
Making a total from domestic sources of………… 43,000
And leaving, for the import from abroad………… 26,197
Deducting these from the total number added, we obtain, for the natural increase, about 29-1/2 per cent.
Macpherson, treating of this period, says—
"That importation is not necessary for keeping up the stock is proved by the example of North America—a country less congenial to the constitution of the negro than the West Indies—where, notwithstanding the destruction and desertion of the slaves occasioned by the war, the number of negroes, though perhaps not of slaves, has greatly increased—because, since the war they have imported very few, and of late years none at all, except in the Southern States."—Annals, vol. iv. 150.
The number of vessels employed in the slave trade, in 1795, is stated to have been twenty, all of them small; and the number of slaves to be carried was limited to one for each ton of their capacity.
From 1800 to 1810, the increase was 378,374, of which nearly 30,000 were found in Louisiana at her incorporation into the Union, leaving about 350,000 to come from other sources; being an increase of 35 per cent. In this period the increase of Georgia and South Carolina, the two importing States, was only 96,000, while that, of the white population was 129,073, carrying with them perhaps 25,000. If to this be added the natural increase at the rate of 25 per cent., we obtain about 75,000, leaving only 21,000 for importation. It is probable, however, that it was somewhat larger, and that it might be safe to estimate it at the same amount as in the previous period, making a total of about 52,000 in the twenty years. Deducting 26,000 from the 350,000, we obtain 324,000 as the addition from domestic sources, which would be about 32 per cent. on the population of 1800. This may be too high; and yet the growth of the following decennial period—one of war and great commercial and agricultural distress—was almost thirty per cent. In 1810, the number had been 1,379,800.
In 1820 it was 1,779,885; increase 30 per cent. " 1830 " 2,328,642; " 30.8 " " " 1840 " 2,873,703; " 24 " " " 1850 " 3,591,000; " 25 " " [11]
Having thus ascertained, as far as possible, the ratio of increase subsequent to the first census, we may now proceed to an examination of the course of affairs in the period which had preceded it.
In 1714, the number of blacks was 58,850, and they were dispersed throughout the provinces from New Hampshire to Carolina, engaged, to a large extent, in labours similar to those in which were engaged the whites by whom they were owned. One-half of them may have been imported. Starting from this point, and taking the natural increase of each decennial period at 25 per cent., as shown to have since been the case, we should obtain, for 1750, about 130,000. The actual quantity was 220,000; and the difference, 90,000, may be set down to importation. Adding, now, 25 percent, to 220,000, we obtain, for 1760, 275,000; whereas the actual number was 310,000, which Would give 35,000 for importation. Pursuing the same course with the following periods, we obtain the following results:—
Actual Natural Actual Years Number. Increase. Increase. Importation. ——- ———- ————- ————- —————— 1760….. 310,000….. 77,500….. 152,000….. 74,500 1770….. 462,000….. 115,500….. 120,000….. } 1780….. 582,000….. 140,500….. 170,000….. } 34,000 1790….. 752,000, number given by first census.