The natural result of the panic of 1903, and the long period of depression in Wall Street, was that an unprecedentedly large surplus reserve was accumulated by the New York banks in 1904, reaching its maximum in August. This was still further swelled in 1905, when speculation for a rise again assumed formidable proportions, and new high records were made in the stock market. Both bank loans and deposits reached a magnitude never before known, and the activity on the Stock Exchange, combined with that in trade, and land, mining, and other speculations outside of Wall Street, caused the clearing house exchanges to greatly exceed those of any previous year.
Our foreign imports also increased till they made new high records, although our exports failed to keep pace with them. This large import trade reflected both the rising fortunes of the rich, who had suffered severely during the depression of 1903, and the general prosperity. Our imports are the barometer of the times. When these are good, they are large; but in bad times they shrink enormously, for a large percentage of them represent luxuries, and we are a luxury-loving people, and, in comparison with Europeans, our manner of living is expensive, not to say extravagant.
Before the end of 1905 the banks of the rest of the country followed those of New York in reporting deposits and loans larger than ever before, whereas in the early part of it their only high record was in the amount of their cash reserves. This showed the great demand for loans and discounts to meet the requirements of the rapidly increasing volume of trade and speculation.
The amount of money available for loans was largely reduced in the early part of 1905 by our heavy exports of gold. But it was subsequently increased by the issue, up to December 1st, of sixty millions in National Bank note circulation, which was so much fuel added to the fire of speculation, not, however, in Wall Street, as much as in the interior, where there was a rage for new enterprises of all kinds, mostly speculative. Everyone with money enough to make a venture seemed to be seeking a short cut to wealth.
This inland speculation and business activity, particularly in the West and South, caused the exchanges or clearings of the banks all over the country, except in New York, which was comparatively dull, to reach larger totals than ever before. Our iron production and foreign imports, at the same time, made new high records.
The gold in the United States Treasury, owned by the Government, increased under the tariff on imports from $193,072,614, early in 1905, to $291,258,135, near the end, and the total amount held by it, including that held against outstanding gold certificates, increased to $816,354,352, the largest in the Government’s history, and also the largest held by any government or institution in the world. The next largest sum ever held elsewhere was $591,600,000, by the Bank of Russia, in 1898. Yet on January 31, 1895, the total amount of gold held by Uncle Sam—that is, by the Treasury—was only $97,353,776, and on February 12th this had dwindled to $41,340,181, owing to the run on the Treasury through fear that the Government might be forced to suspend gold payments. But President Cleveland’s prompt action in selling bonds for gold—to the Morgan-Belmont syndicate—averted this possibility.
Before glancing at more recent events, it is well to refresh our memories by looking back at the most conspicuous features of the stirring period in Wall Street’s history, extending from the beginning of 1901 to 1906. In 1901 we had a year of extraordinary developments, including new company organizations and old company amalgamations, wild and reckless speculation by the outside public, heavy borrowing of European money to carry on this speculation, the failure of the corn crop, and, except for corn, a heavy fall in the prices of our products.
In 1902 Wall Street was flooded with new bond and stock flotation schemes, all clamoring for bank loans, although the activity of trade called for all the loanable capital available. Coincidently, there was wild and reckless speculation in stocks by newly made industrial millionaires with large bank resources and enormous loans at their command. The outside public, however, were not tempted by the bait they offered. Hence, the banks had an excessive burden of loans, all the greater because of the determination, at any risk, of the speculative capitalists to carry out their flotation schemes so as to control great industrial, railway, and other corporations. Meanwhile, there was an immense increase in our foreign imports and a decrease in our agricultural exports, and a great rise in raw materials and the cost of labor. But, fortunately, the year gave us a good corn crop and other satisfactory harvests.
Then came 1903 with its train of disasters. Investors took alarm at the masses of new securities thrown upon the market, and withdrew from it. The securities consequently became unsalable, and prices declined rapidly. This forced liquidation in bonds and stocks of all kinds, particularly the better kinds, to save the poorer from sacrifice by the syndicates, corporations, firms, and persons who were over-extended and unable to respond to the calling in of loans by the banks and other money lenders. Wall Street was full of “undigested securities,” on which it was impossible to borrow any longer. So multitudes of holders had to sell them for what they would bring. Then came a heavy decline in iron and steel, among other things, an equally heavy reduction of the profits of industrial corporations, with many corresponding reductions in dividends, and a very sharp contraction in our before greatly expanded foreign imports owing to the hard times. We had a rich man’s panic, and plenty of poor rich men. But, again, we had abundant grain crops, although the cotton crop was very short, which resulted in our shipping more cotton to Europe in the autumn than ever before, while its price was abnormally high.
In 1904 we saw one effect of the depression of 1903 in the abnormally large surplus reserves of the New York banks, when money on call for about eight months loaned largely as low as one per cent. Only four times before had these reserves been exceeded. Then came the largest gold exports ever made by us. In June the stock market began to recover under spirited speculation for a rise, together with much buying by investors. But reckless professional speculators carried prices so high that the market collapsed in December. During the year there had been a slow yet general revival of trade, in the face of extremely high prices for cotton, resulting from a short crop and a bull movement, which paralyzed the cotton manufacture, and caused many mills to close both here and in England. But happily this was followed by the most bountiful cotton crop we ever had, owing to the high price of the staple having stimulated cotton planting all over the South. A heavy fall in the price of cotton resulted, in which the bull leader failed. But the grain crops met with disaster, and were the smallest since 1900, which resulted in the highest prices since 1898, and the smallest exports to Europe since 1872. The presidential campaign in the meantime passed without creating a ripple in the tide of Wall Street.