Fifty years in Wall Street

by Henry Clews

This reminds me that the two international congresses of socialists held in England and Germany in August, one at Cambridge and the other at Stuttgart, showed what large masses of the people there are laboring to overthrow the existing law and order of society by putting restrictions and fetters upon individual achievement, genius, and capacity for good work, and by giving the inferior masses all that they would allow the superior and educated to enjoy, a levelling process entirely inconsistent with Americanism, for it would destroy all incentive to great efforts, and reduce all to a uniformity inimical to progress. Some of the decline in British Consols is attributed to this socialist agitation in England, and notably in the House of Commons, several of its members being radical socialists; and the same is true of Germany and its Parliament.

In Berlin, which has been for some time the storm-center of Europe, socialism and its revolutionary doctrines, and especially the meetings and preachings of the rampant of the socialists, have added to the disturbance, distrust, and depression caused by the monetary situation. There, as here, over-expansion in all directions had over-taxed the money market and glutted the Bourse, the banks, and the speculative capitalists with new issues of securities that were either unsalable, or salable only at a ruinous sacrifice, owing to the heavy shrinkage in prices, and the absence of demand at the low prices. This presents an almost parallel case to our own, except as to the effect of socialistic agitation.

We have too many blatant socialists here, but they are not planted in congenial soil, and their demagoguery and schemes for the destruction of society as it exists will yield no harvest, for in this great country, where all are free and blessed with equal opportunities, there is no reason, no just cause, or excuse for socialism. The agitation in favor of socialism and its doctrines is not American. It is antagonistic to American institutions, and comes almost entirely from those who have fled from oppression and despotism in Russia and elsewhere in the Old World to our shores, and who fail to see, as they should, that the conditions which have given rise to socialism in Europe are entirely different here. So socialism will never take root in the United States, however much it may be agitated by those of foreign birth who reciprocate our hospitality in giving them all the rights of citizenship that we possess ourselves, by advocating the downfall and destruction of our institutions and system of society, which has made this great nation of free and independent citizens what it is to-day, the wonder of the world.

The Bank of France has continuously felt, but resolutely fought against, depressing foreign influences by tenaciously holding on to its gold, and it attracted more of it recently from this country by paying interest in transit. Both London. and Berlin have long been trying hard to get gold from France, but without success. This determined policy, and refusal to finance anything that would take money out of the country, is intended to fortify the Bank of France and French investors against a possible crisis due to their colossal holdings of Russian bonds. France is the guardian and watch dog of monetary Europe.

While the situation in Germany is strained, that country is taking the lead in European manufacturing enterprises, and it is forcing its trade in all parts of the world. To its great expansion in industrial work, the locking up of capital there, in industrial enterprises of all sorts, is chiefly due. Tempted by great expectations capitalists have invested in them very heavily, and induced by high rates of interest the banks, and other large money lenders, have loaned enormously on industrial securities for which there is at present little or no demand from investors, and this conversion of their resources from a cash or liquid form to a form much more fixed than they expected, has very largely curtailed the supply of loanable funds to others, and caused or aggravated the long existing monetary stringency in Berlin. Yet, strange to say, Germany uses very few bank checks. The German Government, however, is about to consider a plan for regulating their issue and use. Even the Government salaries, aggregating $211,344,000, or 888 million marks, a year, are paid wholly in specie. Here we see 18 million dollars a month withdrawn from circulation, to return slowly. This is almost as bad as our Sub-treasury system. No wonder Germany is pinched for money.

One indirect cause, hitherto overlooked, of the prolonged monetary stringency in Europe has been the absorption of gold by Egypt, India and China, and it has been sufficient to largely neutralize the effect of the increased gold product of South Africa, Australia, America and other countries. India has desired gold of late years, instead of silver exclusively, as before, owing to the depreciation in value of the white metal, and China has been secretly absorbing it for the same reason, and with an ultimate view to placing that nation on a gold basis.

Egypt, however, for several years has been largely buying gold with the proceeds of its large exports, which include a particularly fine quality of long staple cotton that commands a much higher price than ordinary cotton. This gold is extensively hoarded by the Egyptian capitalists instead of being placed in the banks there, and entering into the monetary circulation. The consequence is that it is lost sight of, and lost to the world outside, for Egypt is not only distrustful of banks, but imports very little in comparison with what it exports. So it is enabled to keep what it gets in gold. This seems to me an answer to the question, “What becomes of the new gold?”

The world’s peace in the future is more likely to be disturbed on the Pacific Ocean side than on the Mediterranean. I predict that within the next few years all the great European nations will combine, in friendly relations, offensive and defensive, against the balance of the world, which means against China, Japan and India, that represent two-thirds of the world’s population. If the United States wants to stand aloof and avoid being drawn in on one side or the other, the Philippines must be parted with. The contest of the European nations will be for commerce in the East, and the European powers, especially Russia and Germany, will do all they can to breed trouble between the United States and Japan and would be glad to have both nations crippled through a war. So long as we hang on to the Philippines we will have a war cloud hanging over us. England, owing to her alliance with Japan, is in a better position to take care of the Philippines than we are, and if we could make an honorable deal with England to exchange them for her South American possessions, it would be a good thing for us, as, when the Panama Canal is built, those islands will be of much more advantage to us than the Philippines, and by thus removing the bone of contention we would secure permanent peace. The Philippines will be a great source of expense to us without any possibility of obtaining corresponding advantages; therefore, why retain what will keep a sore spot open as long as we hold on? We are not a colonizing nation—we have territory enough of our own within our own border, while England, on account of her meagre dimensions, requires colonizing for self-existence.

I am inclined to think that it may turn out to have been a mistake for Commodore Perry to have opened the ports of Japan to the world—a caged lion being safer than one let loose. It resulted in Japan building herself up as a power; then followed the war with China, which was instrumental in breaking down China’s exclusive walled-in method of existence. So that now China is also opened to the world like Japan; her 350,000,000 of people will get themselves on a war protecting basis, which will naturally make an alliance with Japan a necessity, and such an alliance will after a while require the European combination as an offset; otherwise, sooner or later some of the European nations will be apt to meet the same fate as old Rome at the hands of the barbarians—simply wiped out of existence. China and Japan will fight for their self-preservation and commercial interests. The 300,000,000 in India will fight for release from Great Britain’s rule, and backed by fanatical inspiration, under skilled leadership, will make a dangerous foe sometime. Hence India’s natural desires will make her akin to China and Japan, arrayed against any foreign foe. So India, China and Japan and the rest of the Orient, when well disciplined and well equipped and led by Japanese generals, will require the combined European nations to hold them in check. The European nations have now had all the wars they want and they have gained through them their present forceful positions of independence, hence all future great wars will be to keep the 900,000,000 of people in Asia in subjection, and it will need all their combined power to do so.

I will now come nearer home and glance at the rising star of the South.