The success of the Conservatives in the towns, their defeat in the country, is the very opposite of what is taking place here; so that we foreigners must exercise great reserve in giving an opinion on the political situation created in England by these last elections. It is, however, evident that there, as everywhere else, the old parties are in process of disintegration, and that, in a new social state, in presence of new problems, a new distribution of parties is called for. In the history of all nations there are periods when the need of political progress renders it necessary for the reformers to remain long in power; and if from time to time they yield it to their adversaries, it should only be for long enough to recover breath in climbing the long ascent. On the other hand, there are also periods when the wearied people long for repose; when progress no longer aims at completeness, but at change; when reforms are mere Utopian fancies or appeals to evil passions; and when the partisans of the status quo ought to have the direction of affairs for as long a time as possible. I believe that we are now entering on one of these periods. But it becomes the duty of the Conservatives to defend existing institutions by taking the initiative in such modifications as may be necessary. This is what, with a true political insight, they have always done in England. The vote of the counties does not affect the justice of your appreciation of the general character of the elections. It is not a return to the old Tory party, but rather the condemnation of the Radical programme; and from this point of view they have an international importance which nothing can weaken. All the same, this vote of the counties seems to me to render absolutely necessary the modification of parties which the complete success of the Ministry would have postponed. After the redistribution of seats, there is need of a redistribution of persons and of political groupings. Either Parliament will be controlled by the Irish Nationalists, and Ireland by Mr. Parnell, or, in opposition to the Nationalists and the Radicals, there will be formed a Government which will be Conservative in its respect for the great social institutions, in its antagonism to the levelling and centralising spirit, and withal Liberal in the manner in which it will handle the agrarian question.
Judging by what I see here, where over three millions of rural proprietors are 'a tower of strength' for the Conservatives, I am persuaded that in England also the Conservatives have no greater interest—after the defeat of the socialist and revolutionary plans of Mr. Chamberlain—than to work vigorously at the formation of a numerous class of small landowners. Mutatis mutandis, we have here also the corresponding phenomenon of the transformation of parties. We are unquestionably entering on a period of lassitude. The Conservatives have gained one hundred and twenty seats at the last elections, for four principal reasons, all of which spring from the faults of their adversaries.
1. The Tonkin expedition.
2. The waste of the national and municipal finances.
3. The aggravation of the agricultural and industrial crises by the gross errors in the conclusion of treaties of commerce and the establishment of transit tariffs.
4. The war on the clergy, foreshadowing the separation of Church and State.
To these particular reasons must be added the general dissatisfaction with an administration at once weak and corrupt, which is not in accord with those instincts which a thousand years of monarchy have impressed on our manners and tone of thought.
The moderate Republicans have been beaten because they allied themselves with the Radicals, and because they themselves have not shown the governing qualities which could gain the confidence of the country. If the check has not been still greater, it is because the country has a horror of all change; because the interest of the Government is exceedingly strong; because the electors do not care to vote for the opposition candidate, who cannot do anything for them; and lastly, because, at the second tour de scrutin, the Government, in the most shameless manner, brought pressure to bear on all who are directly or indirectly dependent on it, the number of whom is very great.
We have then two hundred Conservatives deputies, who represent three and a half millions of electors. Three-fourths of these are Monarchists more or less avowed; one-fourth represents the Bonapartist element, and among these last are many with whom I have well-established personal relations. It is not, however, the part of this large minority to set forth any opinions as to the form of the Government, nor even to cause obstruction; still less to ally itself with the Radicals for the vain satisfaction of overturning the Ministry. Its aim must always be to promote the passing of Conservative laws, and by every possible means to oppose such Radical measures as will be proposed to the Chamber. It is for this that it has been elected. If it fulfils its task aright, when the dissolution comes—and this cannot be far off—it will reap the fruits of its policy. It will have merited the country's confidence, which the Radicals will have lost; and, notwithstanding the pressure, perhaps even the violence of the Government, the current of public opinion will be so strong that it will send a Conservative majority to the Palais Bourbon. Under the influence of this current we may hope to see the collective or individual conversion of the moderate Republicans, which must lead to the reconstruction of the Conservative party and to placing the direction of it in the hands of the Monarchists. For, though by temperament these moderate Republicans ought to be the last to come to us, the Radical danger must bring them; they are bound to come; their place is marked in our ranks. They will never go to Bonapartism: on the contrary, they will one day enable us to rid ourselves of the intransigeunt element which forms a disturbing minority in the party.
This will be the work of to-morrow. To-day, the principal task which I recommend to my friends is the reconstitution, or rather the creation, of the 'active list' of the Conservative array. We have the model in Belgium. People are beginning to understand that the Conservatives cannot remain for ever on the sufferance of the Government. No Government shall he stable but that which they can support. For this they must form a compact and well-organised party. Encouraged by the results of the elections, every one has set to work with new ardour. My only trouble at present is the utter inexperience of the Conservative minority. It is made up of men almost all of whom are new to Parliament, are unacquainted with each other, and as yet are without a leader. I reckon, however, that such blunders as it may commit will be balanced and amended by those of its opponents.