But the holders of gilt-edged securities require some inducement in order to persuade them to sell; and this is forthcoming in the shape of accretions to the capital value of their stocks and shares as a result of the increased demand. But the floating capital of the country is not decreased by this exchange. It is left at precisely the same figures. The buyers draw cheques upon their bankers, and the sellers pay the same cheques to their own credit; consequently, the floating capital in the hands of the banks is always about the same, be the times good or bad, so long as speculation or investment is confined to British securities. When, however, foreign securities are purchased, gold sometimes has to be sent out of the country to help pay for them; and it is then that the situation may cause apprehension—for capital is leaving the country. Should the drain prove serious, the Bank would have to raise its rate; and were it to prove continuous, notwithstanding an abnormally high Bank rate, we might have a crisis.
Returning to the dividends on the funds, "Public Deposits" are increased before the above-mentioned dates, and when this money is released, the result is a large addition to "Other Deposits," because most of the money returns to increase the bankers' balances. A small part, however, is taken by the fund-holders in cash; so we may notice a decrease in the Bank's reserve of notes, and, consequently, an increase in the circulation, together, perhaps, with a fall in the bullion, representing the small proportion withdrawn in actual cash. Should the banks, in consequence of this increase in their deposits, be taking bills from the brokers at cheaper rates, then "Other Securities" would also lessen, because the bill brokers would pay off the Bank and borrow in the cheaper market. The converse occurs when the Government is collecting the revenue, issuing a new loan, or borrowing on Treasury bills.
The principal currency drains will be discussed in the following chapter.
CHAPTER VIII.
The Principal Currency Drains.
The principal currency drains occur during the holiday season and at harvest time, more especially during the latter period, when large amounts of cash are sent into the country to satisfy the requirements of labour. Early in November a demand for gold arises in Scotland, owing to the fact that rents there fall due at Martinmas (11th November); and as the Scotch banks, by the Act of 1845, are compelled to hold gold against notes circulated in excess of their authorised issues, a rather heavy call is made upon the Bank of England, whose returns then show a noticeable decrease in the reserve and bullion. During years of active trade, and, consequently, of brisk demand for loanable capital, these autumnal drains of gold generally force up the rate of interest, thereby making the last quarter of the year the dearest for borrowers.
But we are discussing internal demands only, and as, so long as gold does not leave the country, it is merely a question of certain sums flowing from the London money market and drifting back to it again, this ebb and flow, which is shown by the various ups and downs occurring from time to time in the items of the Bank return, does not create any apprehension. Indeed, these movements occur so regularly at certain times of the year that large borrowers often anticipate them in order that they may tide over such periods with the minimum of inconvenience. It is, however, otherwise when gold is leaving the country in large quantities in order to settle the balance of our indebtedness to other nations, for that may not come back. How it is again enticed to these shores I will endeavour to explain.